Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 5

San Francisco over Baltimore.

San Francisco put up 48 points to Tampa Bay's 3, which really increased their strength, because each team's predicted strength is based on Points For vs Points Against.  However, this doesn't look completely crazy, because my Week 1 projection was Baltimore over San Francisco.

With their wins this week, San Francisco, Detroit, and Green Bay all beak the 90% mark for playoff probability.

At 0-5, the Colts are in danger of falling below the 0.01% chance of winning it all that makes them show up positively in the table.  Even once their chances fall below 0.005%, a 0.00 will show in the table if it's greater than 0, with a dash if the chance is actually zero.  Luckily with 78 of 267 games complete (256 regular season plus 11 playoffs), a season simulation runs faster now than it did in week 1.  Each week I'll keep increasing the number of simulations, hopefully so that each team shows a non-zero chance of being champs if they are not mathematically eliminated.  This week I ran 130,000,000, which takes just under 1 hour.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	4-1	91.45	94.53	75.19	42.53	23.11	12.89
DET	5-0	50.61	93.77	73.43	40.72	22.22	12.34
BAL	3-1	54.13	73.39	57.09	32.07	17.77	9.29
GB	5-0	48.44	93.10	71.48	37.78	19.72	10.58
NE	4-1	48.22	81.69	60.66	31.84	16.57	8.17
BUF	4-1	47.17	77.73	57.28	29.83	15.42	7.56
HOU	3-2	61.80	69.81	45.75	23.50	12.02	5.84
NO	4-1	77.73	84.16	56.99	27.14	12.77	6.33
WAS	3-1	50.41	68.62	43.75	20.57	9.63	4.75
CIN	3-2	22.96	44.78	28.74	13.92	6.71	3.07
PIT	3-2	18.06	40.49	24.85	11.87	5.66	2.57
TEN	3-2	35.67	50.50	29.90	14.11	6.64	2.97
SD	4-1	62.26	72.81	48.30	22.51	10.43	4.64
MIN	1-4	0.39	3.79	1.91	0.82	0.36	0.17
NYG	3-2	20.73	38.51	20.53	8.68	3.69	1.66
OAK	3-2	33.15	49.86	28.92	12.92	5.77	2.47
DAL	2-2	23.93	41.48	21.69	8.94	3.71	1.64
NYJ	2-3	4.19	12.24	6.49	2.85	1.26	0.52
PHI	1-4	4.93	9.81	4.45	1.77	0.72	0.31
CAR	1-4	3.01	6.14	2.64	1.01	0.40	0.17
CHI	2-3	0.56	5.49	2.56	1.00	0.40	0.17
CLE	2-2	4.85	12.42	6.37	2.60	1.06	0.41
ARI	1-4	2.33	5.39	2.21	0.83	0.31	0.12
ATL	2-3	5.95	12.63	5.41	1.98	0.74	0.29
SEA	2-3	5.50	17.16	7.32	2.67	0.98	0.38
DEN	1-4	1.79	4.05	1.74	0.66	0.25	0.09
MIA	0-4	0.41	1.27	0.54	0.20	0.08	0.03
TB	3-2	13.31	23.87	9.90	3.38	1.17	0.43
IND	0-5	0.60	0.79	0.30	0.11	0.04	0.01
STL	0-4	0.72	1.55	0.55	0.17	0.06	0.02
KC	2-3	2.79	5.51	2.12	0.69	0.23	0.07
JAC	1-4	1.93	2.66	0.97	0.32	0.11	0.03

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)