NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

LSU stays on top in its idle week, but Alabama drops to #6.  Clemson stays at #3 despite the loss, due to its strong schedule.  LSU-Alabama this week will definitely boost the strength for both, with the winner likely taking a strong lead at #1.

In Mizzou news, they gain 15 spots, and A&M loses 9.  At least they'll be able to keep up with 1 team in the future SEC.

1	LSU	8-0
2	Oklahoma State	8-0
3	Clemson	8-1
4	Virginia Tech	8-1
5	Penn State	8-1
6	Alabama	8-0
7	Stanford	8-0
8	Houston	8-0
9	Oklahoma	7-1
10	Nebraska	7-1
11	Boise State	7-0
12	Kansas State	7-1
13	Michigan	7-1
14	South Carolina	7-1
15	Georgia Tech	7-2
16	Oregon	7-1
17	Southern Miss	7-1
18	Arkansas	7-1
19	North Carolina	6-3
20	Michigan State	6-2
21	USC	6-2
22	West Virginia	6-2
23	Georgia	6-2
24	Washington	6-2
25	Auburn	6-3
26	Illinois	6-3
27	Wisconsin	6-2
28	Arizona State	6-2
29	Arkansas State	6-2
29	Louisiana-Lafayette	7-2
31	TCU	6-2
32	Cincinnati	6-1
33	Texas	5-2
34	Toledo	5-3
35	Texas A&M	5-3
36	Notre Dame	5-3
37	Eastern Michigan	5-3
38	Ohio State	5-3
39	Wake Forest	5-3
40	Brigham Young	6-3
41	Syracuse	5-3
42	Southern Methodist	5-3
43	Texas Tech	5-3
44	Virginia	5-3
45	Rutgers	5-3
46	Tulsa	5-3
47	Wyoming	5-2
48	Florida State	5-3
49	Miami (FL)	4-4
50	Western Michigan	5-4
51	Nevada	5-3
52	Florida International	5-3
53	Baylor	4-3
54	Iowa	5-3
55	Northern Illinois	5-3
56	Missouri	4-4
57	North Carolina State	4-4
58	Temple	5-3
59	Utah	4-4
60	Ball State	5-4
61	Iowa State	4-4
62	San Diego State	4-3
63	South Florida	4-3
64	Louisville	4-4
65	Vanderbilt	4-4
66	Ohio	5-3
67	Hawaii	5-3
68	Pittsburgh	4-4
69	Mississippi State	4-4
70	Florida	4-4
71	Marshall	4-5
72	California	4-4
73	UCLA	4-4
74	Louisiana Tech	4-4
75	Air Force	4-4
76	Purdue	4-4
77	UTEP	4-4
78	East Carolina	4-4
79	Tennessee	3-5
80	Bowling Green	4-5
81	Western Kentucky	4-4
82	UCF	4-4
83	Kentucky	3-5
84	Duke	3-5
85	San Jose State	3-5
86	Kansas	2-6
87	North Texas	3-6
88	Fresno State	3-5
89	Central Michigan	3-6
90	Northwestern	3-5
91	Connecticut	3-5
92	Maryland	2-6
93	Miami (OH)	3-5
94	Washington State	3-5
95	Arizona	2-6
96	Navy	2-6
97	Minnesota	2-6
98	Ole Miss	2-6
99	Kent State	2-6
100	Army	3-5
101	New Mexico State	3-5
102	Rice	2-6
103	Boston College	2-6
104	UNLV	2-5
105	Troy	2-5
106	Utah State	2-5
107	Oregon State	2-6
108	Colorado State	3-5
109	Louisiana-Monroe	2-6
110	Middle Tennessee	2-5
111	Buffalo	2-7
112	Colorado	1-8
113	Indiana	1-8
114	Memphis	2-7
115	Tulane	2-7
116	Akron	1-7
117	Idaho	1-7
118	UAB	1-7
119	Florida Atlantic	0-7
120	New Mexico	0-8

eBay Wins #6

I was in a random mood, so I bid a penny on a bunch of "Random 1980-90s baseball card" auctions.  The results weren't bad, actually, at least for a collector of Cardinals.  In all, I won 41 of them.

1988 Score

181 Carmelo Martinez

1990 Fleer

183 Randy Milligan

192 Jay Tibbs

205 Keith Hernandez

241 Gerald Young

324 Jim Gantner

1990 Score

88 Steve Lyons
222 Jesse Barfield
447 Ernest Riles
453 Bob Melvin
467 John Kruk

1990 Topps

135 Dave Magadan

1991 Donruss

384 Norm Charlton

1991 Score

Even for a Junk Wax set, I had to scan all 3 former Cardinals

22 Kevin Gross

81 Lee Smith

82 Dave Martinez

84 Bill Spiers

87 Tracy Jones

112 Mike Heath

115 Barry Jones

125 Jay Buhner

128 Greg Hibbard

130 Mike Greenwell

192 Jeff Robinson

197 Tom Gordon

234 Marquis Grissom

237 Don Carman

241 Larry Walker

257 Steve Buechele

299 Omar Vizquel

322 Mike Harkey

325 Gary Gaetti

328 Frank Tanana

330 Barry Bonds

336 Jeff Schulz

339 Mike Bordick

393 Wade Boggs AS

399 Roger Clemens AS

401 Bobby Thigpen AS

415 Ken Caminiti

418 Bobby Thigpen

All in all, I'm happy with my random assortment for 41 cents.  I seem to have an attachment to the 89-92 years because I started collecting in 1992, so although I know most of them are overproduced, it's a nice cheap way to get nostalgic.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 7

Baltimore over Green Bay

Bye weeks really mess with the stability of my rankings.  Green Bay takes over the NFC lead while San Francisco is idle, even though the SF playoff chances are up to 98.76%. Meanwhile, my Rams are over 40 times more likely to go 0-16 than make the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	4-2	47.02	74.12	59.67	35.02	20.23	10.79
GB	7-0	81.07	97.38	89.20	51.46	27.91	15.64
SF	5-1	97.92	98.76	84.75	47.10	24.79	13.62
NO	5-2	76.52	87.96	63.21	32.97	17.19	9.34
DET	5-2	16.70	73.23	46.81	23.17	11.72	6.18
HOU	4-3	85.76	87.46	57.53	30.67	16.30	8.05
NE	5-1	59.41	85.98	69.88	36.62	18.51	8.81
PIT	5-2	26.68	57.66	39.84	19.80	9.81	4.52
BUF	4-2	29.41	64.13	44.61	22.15	10.78	4.96
CIN	4-2	24.33	49.90	34.52	16.88	8.20	3.70
DAL	3-3	41.02	53.87	28.80	12.16	5.27	2.44
CHI	4-3	2.23	24.80	13.01	5.49	2.43	1.12
NYJ	4-3	11.17	33.18	20.24	9.47	4.36	1.89
NYG	4-2	33.27	47.56	24.30	9.59	3.87	1.68
SD	4-2	58.01	62.61	35.19	15.09	6.47	2.62
WAS	3-3	16.15	27.78	12.86	4.89	1.93	0.82
PHI	2-4	9.57	15.61	6.87	2.59	1.02	0.43
ATL	4-3	14.99	38.91	17.56	6.57	2.54	1.05
CAR	2-5	1.10	3.95	1.56	0.54	0.20	0.08
OAK	4-3	27.63	35.99	17.47	6.72	2.60	0.94
TEN	3-3	11.63	19.30	8.63	3.26	1.24	0.43
CLE	3-3	1.97	6.24	3.05	1.15	0.44	0.15
MIN	1-6	0.00	0.11	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
DEN	2-4	4.59	6.95	2.92	1.05	0.38	0.13
ARI	1-5	0.61	1.75	0.63	0.20	0.07	0.02
SEA	2-4	1.45	7.56	2.81	0.89	0.29	0.10
TB	4-3	7.38	20.71	7.59	2.35	0.77	0.27
KC	3-3	9.76	13.52	5.50	1.83	0.61	0.19
MIA	0-6	0.01	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-5	2.56	2.87	0.90	0.27	0.08	0.02
IND	0-7	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
STL	0-6	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

LSU stays on top with a win.  LSU vs Alabama should have a huge impact in two weeks, with both teams off next week.  On the other end of the rankings, I'm disappointed UAB won, because they were set up to face Florida Atlantic in a few weeks in a battle for #120.

1	LSU	8-0
2	Clemson	8-0
3	Alabama	8-0
4	Oklahoma State	7-0
5	Virginia Tech	7-1
6	Boise State	7-0
7	Penn State	7-1
8	Kansas State	7-0
9	Houston	7-0
10	Stanford	7-0
11	Oklahoma	6-1
12	Nebraska	6-1
13	Michigan	6-1
14	USC	6-1
15	Michigan State	6-1
16	South Carolina	6-1
17	Wisconsin	6-1
18	Oregon	6-1
19	Arkansas	6-1
20	Illinois	6-2
21	Southern Miss	6-1
22	Georgia Tech	6-2
23	Cincinnati	6-1
24	Texas A&M	5-2
25	North Carolina	5-3
26	Toledo	5-3
27	Syracuse	5-2
28	West Virginia	5-2
29	Texas Tech	5-2
30	Georgia	5-2
31	Arizona State	5-2
32	Eastern Michigan	5-3
33	Washington	5-2
34	Southern Methodist	5-2
35	Auburn	5-3
36	Brigham Young	6-2
37	Wake Forest	5-2
38	Louisiana-Lafayette	6-2
39	Arkansas State	5-2
40	Rutgers	5-2
41	TCU	5-2
42	Miami (FL)	4-3
43	Iowa	5-2
44	Temple	5-3
45	Notre Dame	4-3
46	Ball State	5-3
47	Texas	4-2
48	Baylor	4-2
49	North Carolina State	4-3
50	Ohio State	4-3
51	Northern Illinois	5-3
52	South Florida	4-3
53	San Diego State	4-2
54	Vanderbilt	4-3
55	Virginia	4-3
56	Ohio	5-3
57	California	4-3
58	Florida	4-3
59	Wyoming	4-2
60	Florida State	4-3
61	Tulsa	4-3
62	Nevada	4-3
63	Western Michigan	4-4
64	UTEP	4-3
65	Bowling Green	4-4
66	Utah	3-4
67	Purdue	4-3
68	Florida International	4-3
69	Tennessee	3-4
70	Iowa State	3-4
71	Missouri	3-4
72	Hawaii	4-3
73	Pittsburgh	3-4
74	Louisville	3-4
75	Air Force	3-4
76	Marshall	3-5
77	Kentucky	3-4
78	East Carolina	3-4
79	Mississippi State	3-4
80	UCLA	3-4
81	San Jose State	3-4
82	Louisiana Tech	3-4
83	Kansas	2-5
84	Maryland	2-5
85	Duke	3-4
86	Connecticut	3-4
87	Western Kentucky	3-4
88	North Texas	3-5
89	Fresno State	3-5
90	UCF	3-4
91	Ole Miss	2-5
92	Washington State	3-4
93	Arizona	2-5
94	New Mexico State	3-4
95	Navy	2-5
96	Colorado State	3-4
97	Central Michigan	2-6
98	Troy	2-4
99	Rice	2-5
100	Oregon State	2-5
101	Louisiana-Monroe	2-5
102	Northwestern	2-5
103	Buffalo	2-6
104	Utah State	2-5
105	Miami (OH)	2-5
106	Army	2-5
107	Middle Tennessee	2-4
108	Minnesota	1-6
109	Kent State	1-6
110	Indiana	1-7
111	UNLV	1-5
112	Boston College	1-6
113	Akron	1-6
114	Memphis	2-6
115	Colorado	1-7
116	Tulane	2-6
117	Idaho	1-6
118	UAB	1-6
119	New Mexico	0-7
120	Florida Atlantic	0-7

Free Cards from Cards on Cards

I've been holding off on this post while I try to get my scanner to work, but I'm irritated with it, so you get photos with trapezoidal cards!


Free? That's right, Cards on Cards ran a Free Fleer Group Break a while back.  The boxes were 1995 Fleer Update, 1993 Fleer Ultra Series 2, and the1993 Fleer flagship set.  Since it was free, I figured I had nothing to lose, and jumped in to take the Cardinals with the caveat that I was only getting what he didn't want.  When the time came for the 2nd team, I took the A's, who were my second favorite team for a long time.  As you'll see, it paid off with some PC hits.

First up, the packing material:

I had actually completely forgotten about this break, even though I read all the posts about the Fleer box breaks. So when I opened the envelope and saw Sandy Alomar facing me, I thought I had received someone else's trade package.  I then realized some beat up junk wax was being used to protect the outside cards.  After opening the first team bag I remembered the break and excitedly tore through the stacks.

1993 Fleer

All cards included:
124 Rheal Cormier (2)
125 Bernard Gilkey (2)
126 Felix Jose (2)
127 Ray Lankford (2)
128 Bob McClure
129 Donovan Osbourne (2)
130 Tom Pagnozzi (2)
131 Geronimo Pena (2)
132 Mike Perez (3)
133 Lee Smith
134 Bob Tewksbury
135 Todd Worrell (2)
136 Todd Zeile
290 Lance Blankenship
291 Mike Bordick (2)
292 Jerry Browne
293 Dennis Eckersley
294 Rickey Henderson (2)
295 Vince Horsman (2)
296 Mark McGwire (2)
297 Jeff Parrett (2)
298 Ruben Sierra (2)
299 Terry Steinback (2)
300 Walt Weiss (2)
301 Bob Welch (2)
302 Willie Wilson (2)
303 Bobby Witt
Rookie Sensations: 9 of 10 Mike Perez

1993 Fleer Ultra

All cards included:

460 Rene Arocha
461 Brian Barber
462 Rheal Cormier (2)
463 Gregg Jeffries
465 Omar Olivares
466 Geronimo Pena
467 Allen Watson
603 Scott Brosius
604 Storm Davis
605 Eric Fox (2)
606 Goose Gossage (2)
607 Scott Hemond
608 Dave Henderson
609 Mark McGwire
610 Mike Mohler
611 Edwin Nunez (2)
612 Kevin Seitzer (2)
613 Ruben Sierra (2)
Dennis Eckersley Career Highlights #1

1995 Fleer Update

All cards included:
U-70 Jim Corsi (2)
U-71 Mike Harkey (2)

U-72 Dave Stewart (2)

U-73 Todd Stottlemyre (2)
U-153 Allen Battle

U-157 John Frascatore (2)

U-159 Tom Henke

Diamond Tribute 7 of 10 Rickey Henderson (2)

There were quite a few of my favorite players in there, including A's who later became Cardinals (McGwire, Eckersley, Stottlemyre).

Thanks for a great group break, especially for the price!  I'll definitely have to send some extra stuff in our next massive trade.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 6

San Francisco over Baltimore.

How about that, it's stabilizing. Week 5 also had the Niners over Ravens.  The Rams, Colts, and Dolphins now have less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning it all.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	6-0	65.23	95.48	82.49	47.40	26.05	14.62
SF	5-1	95.43	97.75	86.82	50.97	27.68	15.52
BAL	4-1	59.92	82.18	68.10	39.81	22.94	12.25
DET	5-1	33.16	86.43	63.29	33.56	17.75	9.64
NE	5-1	62.24	86.61	69.39	36.99	19.16	9.39
BUF	4-2	30.18	64.01	43.66	22.05	11.00	5.21
CIN	4-2	23.16	51.53	34.40	16.99	8.41	3.91
NO	4-2	57.54	69.65	41.72	18.53	8.34	3.98
PIT	4-2	15.53	42.78	26.74	12.73	6.11	2.75
HOU	3-3	50.44	55.07	29.65	13.83	6.47	2.87
WAS	3-2	34.27	51.12	28.96	12.53	5.51	2.57
NYJ	3-3	7.53	21.71	12.41	5.75	2.66	1.16
CHI	3-3	1.58	13.66	7.49	3.21	1.45	0.67
TEN	3-2	47.72	55.28	31.25	14.31	6.54	2.84
SD	4-1	53.82	66.00	41.91	19.04	8.61	3.71
OAK	4-2	42.44	60.37	36.56	16.40	7.35	3.13
NYG	4-2	36.14	51.67	28.37	11.69	4.88	2.17
PHI	2-4	9.69	16.67	7.77	3.03	1.24	0.54
DAL	2-3	19.89	31.08	15.13	5.81	2.30	0.97
ATL	3-3	15.35	25.68	11.87	4.41	1.71	0.70
MIN	1-5	0.03	0.43	0.19	0.07	0.03	0.01
ARI	1-4	1.36	4.23	1.81	0.65	0.24	0.09
CAR	1-5	1.19	2.05	0.81	0.27	0.10	0.04
CLE	2-3	1.39	4.65	2.16	0.83	0.32	0.12
SEA	2-3	3.08	14.66	6.51	2.26	0.80	0.30
DEN	1-4	1.52	3.43	1.46	0.53	0.20	0.07
TB	4-2	25.92	39.13	16.67	5.58	1.93	0.71
MIA	0-5	0.05	0.20	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
IND	0-6	0.40	0.41	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.00
KC	2-3	2.22	4.20	1.59	0.50	0.16	0.05
JAC	1-5	1.44	1.57	0.50	0.15	0.05	0.01
STL	0-5	0.12	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)

First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Nothing too exciting this week, my top 3 6-0 teams all confirmed their position with another win each.  Houston lost a lot of ground by simply not playing this week.  That should even out for everyone over the course of the season though.  And good news for Missouri: If we ever go to a 6-week playoff system, you'd be in!

1	LSU	7-0
2	Clemson	7-0
3	Alabama	7-0
4	Penn State	6-1
5	Virginia Tech	6-1
6	Oklahoma State	6-0
7	Oklahoma	6-0
8	Boise State	6-0
9	Michigan	6-1
10	Kansas State	6-0
11	South Carolina	6-1
12	Illinois	6-1
13	Wisconsin	6-0
14	Georgia Tech	6-1
15	Houston	6-0
16	Stanford	6-0
17	Nebraska	5-1
18	West Virginia	5-1
19	North Carolina	5-2
20	Georgia	5-2
21	Louisiana-Lafayette	6-1
22	Arizona State	5-2
23	Auburn	5-2
24	Southern Methodist	5-1
25	Michigan State	5-1
26	Rutgers	5-1
27	USC	5-1
28	Washington	5-1
29	Oregon	5-1
30	Arkansas	5-1
31	Temple	5-2
32	Southern Miss	5-1
33	Brigham Young	5-2
34	Cincinnati	5-1
35	Texas A&M	4-2
36	Toledo	4-3
37	Texas	4-2
38	Notre Dame	4-2
39	TCU	4-2
40	Eastern Michigan	4-3
41	Baylor	4-2
42	Virginia	4-2
43	South Florida	4-2
44	Syracuse	4-2
45	Texas Tech	4-2
46	Ohio State	4-3
47	San Diego State	4-2
48	Iowa	4-2
49	Wake Forest	4-2
50	Arkansas State	4-2
51	Wyoming	4-2
52	Western Michigan	4-3
53	Ball State	4-3
54	Utah	3-3
55	Florida	4-3
56	Florida International	4-2
57	Miami (FL)	3-3
58	Tennessee	3-3
59	Northern Illinois	4-3
60	Vanderbilt	3-3
61	Ohio	4-3
62	Iowa State	3-3
63	North Carolina State	3-3
64	Missouri	3-3
65	Pittsburgh	3-4
66	Air Force	3-3
67	UCLA	3-3
68	UTEP	3-3
69	Marshall	3-4
70	California	3-3
71	Florida State	3-3
72	Tulsa	3-3
73	Nevada	3-3
74	Maryland	2-4
75	Mississippi State	3-4
76	UCF	3-3
77	Bowling Green	3-4
78	San Jose State	3-4
79	Connecticut	3-4
80	Duke	3-3
81	Fresno State	3-4
82	Kansas	2-4
83	Washington State	3-3
84	Purdue	3-3
85	Hawaii	3-3
86	Navy	2-4
87	Ole Miss	2-4
88	Colorado State	3-3
89	New Mexico State	3-3
90	East Carolina	2-4
91	Louisville	2-4
92	Utah State	2-4
93	Kentucky	2-4
94	Central Michigan	2-5
95	Rice	2-4
96	Louisiana Tech	2-4
97	Louisiana-Monroe	2-4
98	Buffalo	2-5
99	North Texas	2-5
100	Troy	2-4
101	Northwestern	2-4
102	Army	2-4
103	Miami (OH)	2-4
104	Western Kentucky	2-4
105	Indiana	1-6
106	Arizona	1-5
107	Kent State	1-6
108	Akron	1-5
109	Oregon State	1-5
110	Minnesota	1-5
111	Tulane	2-5
112	Boston College	1-5
112	UNLV	1-5
114	Colorado	1-6
115	Middle Tennessee	1-4
116	Idaho	1-6
117	Memphis	1-6
118	Florida Atlantic	0-6
119	New Mexico	0-6
120	UAB	0-6

Updated Trade and Want Lists

I've successfully entered the following haves and wants into Zistle.com:

2011 Topps Series 1
2011 Topps Gypsy Queen
2011 Topps Heritage
2011 Topps Lineage
2011 Topps Opening Day
A few miscellaneous cards from previous years.  It'd be weird if they were from future years

I've got a 3000 count box, stuffed full. In total there are 2,149 cards in sleeves or toploaders, 6 year dividers (pink 3mm craft foam), and I'll guess about 75 set and subset dividers (plain white index cards trimmed to 3" by 4.5"). It would seem that sleeves really diminish the capacity of the box. Of course, all those thick Heritage cards aren't helping either.

I've got all of my cards, even from sets I'm building, in the box.  Once I complete, for example, Series 1, I'll be removing 330 cards.  Same with 200 Lineage cards, 220 Opening Day cards, and 500 Heritage cards.  And at the rate I'm going, 350 Gypsy Queen cards in about 5 years.

I wrote some quick and dirty code to read and parse the exported files from Zistle and make more blog-friendly lists for trading.  Check them out and make me some offers.  I'll be moving on to filling up a second box, starting with 2011 Series 2, Update, and any older cards that get in my way while I'm sorting.

Want List
Trade List - any cards of which I have 2 or more
Have List - I'm adding this for the first time. Anything on this list could be traded for the right price, but if it's not a duplicate I probably value it more highly and might not be reasonable.  I definitely suffer from the fallacy of valuing what's in my hand way more than what's in yours, even if the hands were reversed.

Thanks to everyone who reads my blog, and especially to those who peruse my lists looking to make a trade.

eBay Wins #5

1982 Topps Phil Niekro, for $0.16. Not bad for a Hall of Famer.

He must have been at least 42 if not 43 in this shot (born April 1, 1939), it's hard to believe he pitched another 5-6 years past that.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 5

San Francisco over Baltimore.

San Francisco put up 48 points to Tampa Bay's 3, which really increased their strength, because each team's predicted strength is based on Points For vs Points Against.  However, this doesn't look completely crazy, because my Week 1 projection was Baltimore over San Francisco.

With their wins this week, San Francisco, Detroit, and Green Bay all beak the 90% mark for playoff probability.

At 0-5, the Colts are in danger of falling below the 0.01% chance of winning it all that makes them show up positively in the table.  Even once their chances fall below 0.005%, a 0.00 will show in the table if it's greater than 0, with a dash if the chance is actually zero.  Luckily with 78 of 267 games complete (256 regular season plus 11 playoffs), a season simulation runs faster now than it did in week 1.  Each week I'll keep increasing the number of simulations, hopefully so that each team shows a non-zero chance of being champs if they are not mathematically eliminated.  This week I ran 130,000,000, which takes just under 1 hour.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	4-1	91.45	94.53	75.19	42.53	23.11	12.89
DET	5-0	50.61	93.77	73.43	40.72	22.22	12.34
BAL	3-1	54.13	73.39	57.09	32.07	17.77	9.29
GB	5-0	48.44	93.10	71.48	37.78	19.72	10.58
NE	4-1	48.22	81.69	60.66	31.84	16.57	8.17
BUF	4-1	47.17	77.73	57.28	29.83	15.42	7.56
HOU	3-2	61.80	69.81	45.75	23.50	12.02	5.84
NO	4-1	77.73	84.16	56.99	27.14	12.77	6.33
WAS	3-1	50.41	68.62	43.75	20.57	9.63	4.75
CIN	3-2	22.96	44.78	28.74	13.92	6.71	3.07
PIT	3-2	18.06	40.49	24.85	11.87	5.66	2.57
TEN	3-2	35.67	50.50	29.90	14.11	6.64	2.97
SD	4-1	62.26	72.81	48.30	22.51	10.43	4.64
MIN	1-4	0.39	3.79	1.91	0.82	0.36	0.17
NYG	3-2	20.73	38.51	20.53	8.68	3.69	1.66
OAK	3-2	33.15	49.86	28.92	12.92	5.77	2.47
DAL	2-2	23.93	41.48	21.69	8.94	3.71	1.64
NYJ	2-3	4.19	12.24	6.49	2.85	1.26	0.52
PHI	1-4	4.93	9.81	4.45	1.77	0.72	0.31
CAR	1-4	3.01	6.14	2.64	1.01	0.40	0.17
CHI	2-3	0.56	5.49	2.56	1.00	0.40	0.17
CLE	2-2	4.85	12.42	6.37	2.60	1.06	0.41
ARI	1-4	2.33	5.39	2.21	0.83	0.31	0.12
ATL	2-3	5.95	12.63	5.41	1.98	0.74	0.29
SEA	2-3	5.50	17.16	7.32	2.67	0.98	0.38
DEN	1-4	1.79	4.05	1.74	0.66	0.25	0.09
MIA	0-4	0.41	1.27	0.54	0.20	0.08	0.03
TB	3-2	13.31	23.87	9.90	3.38	1.17	0.43
IND	0-5	0.60	0.79	0.30	0.11	0.04	0.01
STL	0-4	0.72	1.55	0.55	0.17	0.06	0.02
KC	2-3	2.79	5.51	2.12	0.69	0.23	0.07
JAC	1-4	1.93	2.66	0.97	0.32	0.11	0.03

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

We're still a week away from any offical BCS standings, but my computer rankings have officially put LSU at #1.  I've got Alabama at #2, so the top of the AP poll matches.  Oklahoma is #1 in the USA Today poll, #3 in the AP poll, and all the way down to #13 in my rankings.  On a side note: I need a name for my ranking system, because it feels repetitive to keep saying variations of "my computer ranking system".  I'll be interested to see what the dispassionate BCS computers have to say about Oklahoma and any other teams I have ranked far outside the poll average.

As for Mizzou, hey, at least we're still in the 2nd tercile.

1	LSU	6-0
2	Alabama	6-0
3	Clemson	6-0
4	Michigan	6-0
5	Illinois	6-0
6	Georgia Tech	6-0
7	Houston	6-0
8	Penn State	5-1
9	North Carolina	5-1
10	Boise State	5-0
11	West Virginia	5-1
12	Nebraska	5-1
13	Oklahoma	5-0
14	Oklahoma State	5-0
15	Wisconsin	5-0
16	Virginia Tech	5-1
17	South Carolina	5-1
18	Arizona State	5-1
19	Kansas State	5-0
20	Arkansas	5-1
21	Stanford	5-0
22	Louisiana-Lafayette	5-1
23	Southern Miss	5-1
24	Texas	4-1
25	Notre Dame	4-2
26	Georgia	4-2
27	Rutgers	4-1
28	Baylor	4-1
29	South Florida	4-1
30	Washington	4-1
31	Auburn	4-2
32	TCU	4-2
33	Southern Methodist	4-1
34	USC	4-1
35	Syracuse	4-2
36	Western Michigan	4-2
37	Texas Tech	4-1
38	Wake Forest	4-1
39	Brigham Young	4-2
40	Michigan State	4-1
41	Oregon	4-1
42	Florida	4-2
43	Temple	4-2
44	Florida International	4-2
45	Cincinnati	4-1
46	Arkansas State	4-2
47	Toledo	3-3
48	Texas A&M	3-2
49	Iowa State	3-2
50	Pittsburgh	3-3
51	Vanderbilt	3-2
52	Ohio	4-2
53	Tennessee	3-2
54	Eastern Michigan	3-3
55	Iowa	3-2
56	Air Force	3-2
57	North Carolina State	3-3
58	Wyoming	3-2
59	San Diego State	3-2
60	UCLA	3-3
61	Virginia	3-2
62	Duke	3-2
63	California	3-2
64	Ball State	3-3
65	UCF	3-2
66	Utah	2-3
67	Ohio State	3-3
68	Bowling Green	3-3
69	Mississippi State	3-3
70	Maryland	2-3
71	Hawaii	3-2
72	Washington State	3-2
73	Kansas	2-3
74	Northern Illinois	3-3
75	Purdue	3-2
76	Marshall	2-4
77	Navy	2-3
78	Tulsa	2-3
79	Miami (FL)	2-3
80	Missouri	2-3
81	Rice	2-3
82	UTEP	2-3
83	Nevada	2-3
84	Louisville	2-3
85	Ole Miss	2-3
86	Utah State	2-3
87	Colorado State	3-2
88	Florida State	2-3
89	Troy	2-3
90	Fresno State	2-4
91	Kentucky	2-4
92	Central Michigan	2-4
93	Louisiana Tech	2-4
94	Connecticut	2-4
95	San Jose State	2-4
96	North Texas	2-4
97	Northwestern	2-3
98	Buffalo	2-4
99	East Carolina	1-4
100	New Mexico State	2-3
101	Kent State	1-5
102	Army	2-4
103	Tulane	2-4
104	Oregon State	1-4
105	Indiana	1-5
106	UNLV	1-4
107	Arizona	1-5
108	Boston College	1-5
109	Louisiana-Monroe	1-4
110	Colorado	1-5
111	Akron	1-5
112	Minnesota	1-5
113	Western Kentucky	1-4
114	Idaho	1-5
115	Miami (OH)	1-4
116	Middle Tennessee	1-4
117	Memphis	1-5
118	Florida Atlantic	0-5
119	New Mexico	0-5
120	UAB	0-5

Trade With Reader Ryan

Without realizing it at the time, I put the kibosh on Ryan's trade offer with Too Many Grandersons when I filled out his 2010 Update set. You can still see my faux pas in the comments.  Luckily, he didn't hold that against me, and contacted me too make a trade.  He wanted a bunch of my spare Heritage and 2010 Update, and saw I had some Series 1 on my want list.  To even it out, he also sent a bunch of Gypsy Queen and Lineage base cards.  I sent him an entire 300ct box, and he sent a huge envelope with 6 or 7 team bags full of cards, so I'll just cover the highlights here.

All the 2011 Heritage were base cards, so here's the only one with a playoff team

The 2011 Topps were also all base cards, so again, here's one from a playoff team.

The only Cardinal of the 2011 Lineage base cards. I really like this set. I foresee a few blaster purchases.

Two 2011 Gypsy Queen SPs, to represent the dozens of base cards.

Four 2011 Gypsy Queen Wall Climbers

Two 2011 Gypsy Queen Future Stars

2011 Gypsy Queen Sticky Fingers Pudge

Two 2011 Gypsy Queen Minis of two Cardinal greats. But wait, didn't I already have the Schoendienst Mini, and its Green Border couterpart?

The Red Schoendienst is the Red Back Mini.  At this point I feel like I should go for the whole 2011 GQ "Rainbow" of Red.

2009 Upper Deck A Piece of History

2008 Upper Deck Masterpieces

Two David Freese Rookie Cards, the hero of Game 4.  2009 Topps and 2009 Topps 206.

And now, I see that I've let my Want List and Trade List get woefully out of date.  I've got lots of unsorted cards lying around.  I'm working on getting them entered into Zistle.com, and hopefully exporting the resulting want and trade lists to a nice format.  I'm starting with any and all 2011 cards, and hopefully I'll be able to get them all in before the first 2012s come out.  Then I'll try to keep up with 2012 while working back through 2010 and beyond.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

ESPN didn't post their Division II/III results until today, which is why this is late.

Clemson obviously isn't getting the respect they deserve, as they climb to #1 in my rankings but are #8 in both polls this week.  LSU's weak opponent dropped them down a notch despite the win, and Michigan moves up to #2.  I've noticed my system favors a 5-0 team much more than a 4-0 team, but frankly I think that's how it should be.

1	Clemson	5-0
2	Michigan	5-0
3	Alabama	5-0
4	LSU	5-0
5	Illinois	5-0
6	Georgia Tech	5-0
7	Wisconsin	5-0
8	Houston	5-0
9	North Carolina	4-1
10	West Virginia	4-1
11	Nebraska	4-1
12	Penn State	4-1
13	South Florida	4-1
14	Texas	4-0
15	South Carolina	4-1
16	Virginia Tech	4-1
17	Oklahoma State	4-0
18	Oklahoma	4-0
19	Boise State	4-0
20	Washington	4-1
21	Stanford	4-0
22	Arizona State	4-1
23	Kansas State	4-0
24	Auburn	4-1
25	USC	4-1
26	Michigan State	4-1
27	Southern Methodist	4-1
28	Texas Tech	4-0
29	Ohio	4-1
30	Florida	4-1
31	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-1
32	Arkansas	4-1
33	Southern Miss	4-1
34	Notre Dame	3-2
35	Cincinnati	4-1
36	Iowa State	3-1
37	Rutgers	3-1
38	Georgia	3-2
39	Iowa	3-1
40	Vanderbilt	3-1
41	Pittsburgh	3-2
42	Wyoming	3-1
43	Tennessee	3-1
44	Eastern Michigan	3-2
45	TCU	3-2
46	San Diego State	3-1
47	Baylor	3-1
48	Syracuse	3-2
49	Air Force	3-1
50	Western Michigan	3-2
51	California	3-1
52	Virginia	3-2
53	Brigham Young	3-2
54	Florida International	3-2
54	Duke	3-2
56	Wake Forest	3-1
57	Ball State	3-2
58	Washington State	3-1
59	Oregon	3-1
60	Arkansas State	3-2
61	Ohio State	3-2
62	Temple	3-2
63	Bowling Green	3-2
64	Utah	2-2
65	Marshall	2-3
66	Hawaii	3-2
67	Kansas	2-2
68	Texas A&M	2-2
69	Maryland	2-2
70	Toledo	2-3
71	Miami (FL)	2-2
72	North Carolina State	2-3
73	Navy	2-2
74	Tulsa	2-3
75	Missouri	2-2
76	UCLA	2-3
77	UTEP	2-3
78	Ole Miss	2-3
79	Florida State	2-2
80	Louisville	2-2
81	Mississippi State	2-3
82	Fresno State	2-3
83	Troy	2-2
84	Colorado State	3-2
85	Central Michigan	2-3
86	Kentucky	2-3
87	Northwestern	2-2
88	Northern Illinois	2-3
89	Army	2-3
90	Connecticut	2-3
91	UCF	2-2
92	San Jose State	2-3
93	Purdue	2-2
94	Kent State	1-4
95	New Mexico State	2-3
96	Rice	1-3
97	Nevada	1-3
98	Tulane	2-3
99	UNLV	1-3
100	East Carolina	1-3
101	Arizona	1-4
102	North Texas	1-4
103	Utah State	1-3
104	Louisiana Tech	1-4
105	Colorado	1-4
106	Louisiana-Monroe	1-3
107	Idaho	1-4
108	Minnesota	1-4
109	Indiana	1-4
110	Middle Tennessee	1-3
111	Akron	1-4
112	Buffalo	1-4
113	Boston College	1-4
114	Memphis	1-4
115	Florida Atlantic	0-4
116	Oregon State	0-4
117	Western Kentucky	0-4
118	New Mexico	0-5
119	Miami (OH)	0-4
120	UAB	0-4

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 4

Baltimore over Detroit.

Baltimore's convincing win and Buffalo's loss brought the Ravens to the top of the pack in the AFC.  Detroit is being chased by Green Bay, but they still hold the top of the NFC.  Their two divisional games should clear up a lot.  There were no new 10% milestones this week.  The worst-positioned team is Indianapolis, but even they still hold a 1.40% chance of at least a playoff berth.  The Rams still make me sad.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	3-1	65.63	79.84	63.38	35.77	19.90	11.00
DET	4-0	48.33	84.54	66.20	36.46	20.15	10.73
TEN	3-1	45.75	74.12	53.50	28.31	14.85	7.81
HOU	3-1	51.98	74.37	53.94	28.32	14.76	7.71
GB	4-0	47.40	84.80	65.10	34.38	18.30	9.42
BUF	3-1	43.17	67.07	47.71	24.32	12.22	6.22
NE	3-1	41.87	68.39	48.65	24.73	12.40	6.29
WAS	3-1	44.03	64.17	44.59	22.61	11.26	5.56
NO	3-1	49.54	63.03	42.71	21.49	10.65	5.23
SF	3-1	76.41	79.67	52.18	25.98	12.75	6.19
NYG	3-1	32.82	53.70	35.27	17.01	8.08	3.81
TB	3-1	35.85	50.79	31.49	14.80	6.86	3.17
CIN	2-2	18.19	37.62	22.51	10.38	4.79	2.24
SD	3-1	56.89	64.71	39.94	18.21	8.26	3.84
NYJ	2-2	14.27	27.80	16.22	7.41	3.37	1.56
PHI	1-3	6.02	11.79	6.21	2.80	1.26	0.56
ARI	1-3	15.49	20.69	10.33	4.65	2.10	0.93
OAK	2-2	32.07	41.73	22.80	9.99	4.38	1.97
DAL	2-2	17.14	31.07	17.99	8.07	3.58	1.58
CHI	2-2	4.03	16.84	9.30	4.14	1.87	0.82
PIT	2-2	9.07	22.75	12.04	5.10	2.17	0.93
CAR	1-3	5.40	8.33	4.06	1.73	0.74	0.31
ATL	2-2	9.21	17.61	9.18	3.89	1.64	0.69
MIN	0-4	0.24	1.63	0.77	0.32	0.13	0.05
CLE	2-2	7.12	17.33	8.83	3.59	1.46	0.60
DEN	1-3	7.49	11.58	5.31	2.06	0.80	0.32
MIA	0-4	0.69	1.59	0.68	0.26	0.10	0.04
SEA	1-3	5.98	8.80	3.68	1.36	0.51	0.19
IND	0-4	0.56	1.40	0.58	0.21	0.08	0.03
JAC	1-3	1.71	4.30	1.81	0.63	0.22	0.08
STL	0-4	2.12	2.53	0.92	0.32	0.11	0.04
KC	1-3	3.56	5.41	2.09	0.70	0.23	0.08

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Detroit
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit

eBay Wins #4

1 card.

1 cent.

1991 Donruss Dana Kiecker

How can anyone resist $0.01 shipped, for any card in decent shape?  I guess the key thing is I got there first, and lots of people can resist $0.06 for a 1991 Donruss common.