Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 6, Final

Atlanta over Houston

Denver made a good move last night with the comeback win over San Diego, but Atlanta and Houston are still sitting at the top of the Superbowl odds.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	4-1	0.626	59.215	79.867	62.230	34.687	18.961	10.695
SF	4-2	0.616	48.447	66.517	46.674	24.993	13.313	7.369
NYG	4-2	0.610	60.744	73.138	52.263	27.592	14.468	7.914
ATL	6-0	0.604	92.605	96.077	83.901	45.032	23.386	12.654
HOU	5-1	0.603	93.730	97.681	88.773	51.272	28.442	14.605
NE	3-3	0.583	47.157	69.165	47.747	24.917	13.089	6.457
BAL	5-1	0.582	81.455	92.997	78.638	43.337	22.573	11.103
MIN	4-2	0.560	25.278	49.778	30.901	14.571	6.866	3.411
DEN	3-3	0.557	61.704	73.344	47.259	23.359	11.551	5.390
SEA	4-2	0.546	21.893	47.264	28.142	12.851	5.865	2.830
TB	2-3	0.540	6.176	19.129	9.972	4.450	2.008	0.957
GB	3-3	0.537	12.597	30.144	16.344	7.267	3.259	1.543
ARI	4-2	0.535	20.949	42.575	24.553	10.921	4.860	2.293
SD	3-3	0.522	34.152	56.496	33.144	15.063	6.902	2.983
WAS	3-3	0.508	19.668	31.393	15.995	6.639	2.776	1.235
MIA	3-3	0.507	22.480	46.284	25.742	11.253	4.995	2.087
PIT	2-3	0.502	10.214	28.778	15.237	6.606	2.908	1.200
STL	3-3	0.497	8.710	20.137	9.802	3.960	1.621	0.705
NYJ	3-3	0.484	23.109	42.584	22.407	9.272	3.899	1.539
DET	2-3	0.480	2.911	9.615	4.472	1.743	0.689	0.288
NO	1-4	0.479	0.859	3.084	1.375	0.535	0.213	0.089
CIN	3-3	0.475	7.522	29.845	14.783	5.985	2.480	0.960
PHI	3-3	0.447	11.398	16.814	7.328	2.616	0.944	0.363
DAL	2-3	0.447	8.190	12.815	5.414	1.927	0.695	0.268
CLE	1-5	0.446	0.810	4.822	2.072	0.771	0.300	0.108
CAR	1-4	0.433	0.360	1.652	0.631	0.217	0.076	0.028
IND	2-3	0.421	4.576	17.700	7.778	2.756	1.008	0.339
BUF	3-3	0.412	7.254	21.187	9.341	3.216	1.139	0.374
OAK	1-4	0.396	2.551	5.508	2.189	0.717	0.244	0.077
JAC	1-4	0.373	0.738	4.903	1.785	0.546	0.175	0.052
KC	1-5	0.370	1.592	2.525	0.917	0.276	0.088	0.026
TEN	2-4	0.368	0.956	6.182	2.186	0.656	0.207	0.060

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]

2012 World Series Projection, October 16

League Championship Series
STL 1-1 SF
DET 2-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
DET	0.5372	74.58	33.01
STL	0.5765	55.63	31.12
SF	0.5468	44.37	21.92
NYY	0.5852	25.42	13.94

The Cardinals came back to earth a bit last night, but splitting the first two games of the series on the road is still a good start. It's disppointing to lose a game started by Chris Carpenter, usually one of our most solid pitchers. Hopefully we can take 3 in a row at home and rest a few weary arms before the World Series, but I won't get ahead of myself.

One way to look at this series is that it has transformed from a 7-game series without homefield advantage to a 5-game series with homefield advantage for the Cardinals. That sounds like a better deal to me, although a shorter series always carries a bit more risk of an upset.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Atlanta over Houston

While the two participants stayed the same, their strengths swapped after Houston lost and Atlanta won on Sunday. We've now got the 4th and 5th strongest teams in the league slated to make the Superbowl, probabilistically. On the other end, Kansas City is now the least likely champion, with chances about 1 in 4000.

I got to watch the Rams game yesterday, and I thought I just might get to witness NFL history when Fisher ordered Greg Zuerlein to try a 66-yard Field Goal to tie the game in the closing seconds. He missed wide left, like he had with 2 other kicks that day, though he had enough distance, and the Rams fell back to .500. the good news is, we're now just 1 game behind the 3-way tie in the NFC West.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	4-1	0.626	59.215	79.869	62.233	34.689	18.961	10.702
SF	4-2	0.616	48.447	66.518	46.681	25.000	13.318	7.381
NYG	4-2	0.610	60.741	73.137	52.250	27.580	14.466	7.924
ATL	6-0	0.604	92.612	96.075	83.894	45.029	23.378	12.664
HOU	5-1	0.603	93.713	97.714	88.203	50.893	28.268	14.506
NE	3-3	0.583	47.208	69.499	47.560	24.812	13.045	6.438
BAL	5-1	0.582	81.540	93.096	78.261	43.079	22.478	11.055
MIN	4-2	0.560	25.280	49.772	30.911	14.574	6.866	3.416
SEA	4-2	0.546	21.894	47.261	28.144	12.849	5.866	2.835
SD	3-2	0.545	59.488	74.795	50.168	24.343	11.706	5.320
TB	2-3	0.540	6.152	19.062	9.939	4.435	2.003	0.955
DEN	2-3	0.539	36.846	52.547	31.227	14.743	7.021	3.149
GB	3-3	0.537	12.597	30.148	16.340	7.269	3.258	1.543
ARI	4-2	0.535	20.944	42.571	24.545	10.917	4.860	2.294
WAS	3-3	0.508	19.663	31.396	15.998	6.641	2.780	1.238
MIA	3-3	0.507	22.588	46.908	25.810	11.288	5.018	2.096
PIT	2-3	0.502	10.101	28.491	15.090	6.552	2.887	1.191
STL	3-3	0.497	8.716	20.147	9.810	3.964	1.621	0.704
NYJ	3-3	0.484	22.902	42.746	22.320	9.249	3.895	1.538
DET	2-3	0.480	2.908	9.620	4.472	1.745	0.690	0.289
NO	1-4	0.479	0.878	3.154	1.408	0.548	0.217	0.091
CIN	3-3	0.475	7.546	30.083	14.820	6.005	2.486	0.961
PHI	3-3	0.447	11.400	16.810	7.332	2.616	0.944	0.365
DAL	2-3	0.447	8.196	12.815	5.413	1.928	0.695	0.269
CLE	1-5	0.446	0.813	4.905	2.098	0.780	0.303	0.110
CAR	1-4	0.433	0.358	1.645	0.630	0.216	0.076	0.028
IND	2-3	0.421	4.585	18.121	7.886	2.792	1.020	0.344
BUF	3-3	0.412	7.303	21.683	9.441	3.256	1.154	0.379
OAK	1-4	0.396	2.309	5.441	2.147	0.703	0.240	0.076
JAC	1-4	0.373	0.740	5.064	1.828	0.560	0.180	0.053
KC	1-5	0.370	1.356	2.435	0.875	0.264	0.084	0.025
TEN	2-4	0.368	0.962	6.471	2.265	0.681	0.216	0.062

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]

2012 World Series Projection, October 15

League Championship Series
STL 1-0 SF
DET 2-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.5765	71.09	39.77
DET	0.5372	74.58	32.26
SF	0.5468	28.91	14.29
NYY	0.5852	25.42	13.69

Last night when the Cardinals went up 6-0, my first thought was "Great, but, we were up 6-0 on the Nationals in game 5. Let's not get crazy here". So of course I texted my buddy and said, tongue-in-cheek, "Wooo 6-0. That's an insurmountable lead!" He was ready to accuse me of cursing them when the Giants fought back with 4 runs, but luckily it all worked out in the end. Tonight I'm hoping they can duplicate Detroit's feat of winning 2 games on the road to start the LCS. Getting to come home and only having to win 2 of 3 sounds much better than going on the road for Games 6 and 7.

Also, hooray for the NLCS on free TV! I actually got to watch it, mostly. There was a quick airport run in the middle, but I listened on the radio and gathered with others outside the airport bar to catch a few more innings before getting home in time for the bottom of the 9th.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Ohio State retains its hold on #1, despite ineligibility. I guess Notre Dame may be the real deal, after a win against previously #17 Stanford. The interesting thing about this system is that it doesn't take scores into account, only wins and losses. So unlike my NFL projections, a close win is way better than a close loss, instead of just slightly better.

Missouri predictably lost big to Alabama, and dipped to #68. At this point, we're looking at an outside chance of 6-6, and most likely 5-7 or even 4-8. Hopefully this SEC move draws in the recruits like they're hoping, because so far, we've seen they'll need to improve.

1	Ohio State	7-0
2	Notre Dame	6-0
3	Florida	6-0
4	Alabama	6-0
5	Kansas State	6-0
6	Oregon	6-0
7	South Carolina	6-1
8	Ohio	7-0
9	LSU	6-1
10	Rutgers	6-0
11	Northern Illinois	6-1
12	Florida State	6-1
13	Mississippi State	6-0
14	Oregon State	5-0
15	Texas Tech	5-1
16	West Virginia	5-1
17	Northwestern	6-1
18	Louisville	6-0
19	Toledo	6-1
20	Nevada	6-1
21	Cincinnati	5-0
22	Tulsa	6-1
23	Texas A&M	5-1
24	Boise State	5-1
25	USC	5-1
26	North Carolina	5-2
27	Georgia	5-1
28	Iowa State	4-2
29	Arizona State	5-1
30	Clemson	5-1
31	Wisconsin	5-2
32	Louisiana Tech	5-1
33	UCLA	5-2
34	Stanford	4-2
35	Western Kentucky	5-1
36	Utah State	5-2
37	TCU	5-1
38	Duke	5-2
39	Oklahoma	4-1
40	Kent State	5-1
41	Iowa	4-2
42	Miami (FL)	4-3
43	Texas	4-2
44	Penn State	4-2
45	North Carolina State	4-2
46	Minnesota	4-2
47	Michigan State	4-3
48	Nebraska	4-2
49	Michigan	4-2
50	San Jose State	4-2
51	Maryland	4-2
52	Ole Miss	4-3
53	Ball State	4-3
54	Virginia Tech	4-3
55	New Mexico	4-3
56	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-1
57	East Carolina	4-3
58	Fresno State	4-3
59	Brigham Young	4-3
60	UCF	4-2
61	Arkansas State	4-3
62	Washington	3-3
63	Louisiana-Monroe	4-2
64	Arizona	3-3
65	Bowling Green	4-3
66	California	3-4
67	Baylor	3-2
68	Missouri	3-4
69	Middle Tennessee	4-2
70	Temple	3-2
71	San Diego State	4-3
72	Purdue	3-3
73	Wake Forest	3-3
74	Tennessee	3-3
75	Arkansas	3-4
76	Navy	3-3
77	Oklahoma State	3-2
78	Troy	3-3
78	Miami (OH)	3-4
80	Houston	3-3
81	Western Michigan	3-4
82	Connecticut	3-4
83	Syracuse	2-4
84	South Florida	2-4
85	Vanderbilt	2-4
86	Central Michigan	2-4
87	Indiana	2-4
88	Utah	2-4
89	Air Force	3-3
90	Marshall	2-4
91	Illinois	2-5
92	Virginia	2-5
93	Pittsburgh	2-4
94	Georgia Tech	2-4
95	Washington State	2-5
96	North Texas	2-4
97	Southern Methodist	2-4
98	Kentucky	1-6
99	Rice	2-5
100	Auburn	1-5
101	Buffalo	1-5
102	UAB	1-5
103	Kansas	1-5
104	Tulane	1-5
105	Hawaii	1-5
106	Boston College	1-5
107	Wyoming	1-5
108	Army	1-5
109	Memphis	1-5
110	UNLV	1-6
111	Florida Atlantic	1-5
112	Colorado	1-5
113	Florida International	1-6
114	UTEP	1-6
115	New Mexico State	1-5
116	Idaho	1-6
117	Colorado State	1-6
118	Akron	1-6
119	Eastern Michigan	0-6
120	Southern Miss	0-6

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]
[Week 6]

2012 World Series Projection, October 14

League Championship Series
STL 0-0 SF
DET 1-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.5765	56.57	30.54
DET	0.5372	56.13	24.81
NYY	0.5852	43.87	24.04
SF	0.5468	43.43	20.61

I guess I should root for the Tigers in the ALCS, since - at least on paper - they are the weaker team. Of course, as we've seen this postseason, there are plenty of upsets in baseball, and just because you're favored by a bit doesn't mean you'll win. Still, if I was making infinite bets in theoretical infinite universes branched off from this one today, I'd put more money on the Cardinals...assuming money is transferable across universes.

eBay Wins #45

I improved my per card average yet again with this 1 cent card.

1998 Collector's Choice #8 Frank Thomas

I thought this was an insert card when I bought it, but it's a subset at the beginning of the Collector's Choice set. Still, it's a cool looking card, and of a player I've long admired, and you can't beat the price.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2018
Total Spent	$38.59
Per Card	1.912 cents

2012 World Series Projection, October 13

League Championship Series
STL 0-0 SF
DET 0-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
NYY	0.5852	60.54	33.17
STL	0.5765	56.57	29.54
SF	0.5468	43.43	19.85
DET	0.5372	39.46	17.44

I must admit, I was dead tired last night, and went to bed after the end of the 7th inning in the Cardinals game. I'm not the type to give up on a game; I stayed up for Game 6 of the World Series last year, a day before many St. Louisans woke up to find the series wasn't over yet. I actually woke up in the middle of the night curious about the result, but decided not to drag myself out of bed to check. Needless to say, I woke up to a happy result, and the Cardinals are back in the NLCS. On the AL side, I really wanted to see Baltimore extend their improbable season, but it was not to be.

I give the Cardinals a 56.57% chance of beating the Giants, but the Yankees have over a 60% chance of beating Detroit. Those numbers "feel" about right, since the strength isn't based off of records, but runs scored and runs allowed.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Houston over Atlanta

I don't think Pittsburgh's going to go far this year. They lost to the team that is STILL the worst team in the league even after that victory.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	4-1	0.629	53.457	76.600	58.548	32.972	18.262	10.217
CHI	4-1	0.626	51.863	79.606	60.815	34.030	18.760	10.435
HOU	5-0	0.623	92.899	98.576	91.767	55.176	31.845	17.104
ATL	5-0	0.594	94.408	95.913	80.528	42.583	21.697	11.354
MIN	4-1	0.587	41.817	70.667	50.299	25.561	12.873	6.643
BAL	4-1	0.580	71.177	88.857	71.099	38.308	19.477	9.597
NE	3-2	0.580	66.195	78.805	55.750	28.915	14.790	7.286
NYG	3-2	0.569	41.611	51.352	31.314	15.019	7.206	3.585
SEA	3-2	0.547	10.258	33.513	19.320	8.889	4.103	1.951
SD	3-2	0.545	58.857	73.972	49.381	23.631	11.124	5.079
ARI	4-1	0.543	25.409	55.690	34.478	15.756	7.179	3.383
DEN	2-3	0.539	34.302	50.030	29.384	13.603	6.359	2.866
STL	3-2	0.505	10.875	29.577	15.514	6.482	2.715	1.180
GB	2-3	0.502	4.800	14.470	7.195	2.979	1.247	0.538
PIT	2-3	0.502	10.895	27.235	14.441	6.143	2.655	1.102
MIA	2-3	0.500	17.104	35.592	18.591	7.837	3.369	1.392
CIN	3-2	0.493	17.566	47.530	25.951	10.856	4.570	1.854
WAS	2-3	0.489	16.325	20.936	9.801	3.876	1.551	0.649
TB	1-3	0.481	3.343	8.203	3.795	1.495	0.594	0.244
NO	1-4	0.479	1.608	4.069	1.851	0.729	0.290	0.119
DET	1-3	0.476	1.520	5.989	2.747	1.067	0.420	0.171
IND	2-2	0.465	6.316	36.123	17.457	6.688	2.689	1.022
PHI	3-2	0.452	25.179	30.735	14.085	5.104	1.859	0.712
DAL	2-2	0.447	16.884	20.792	8.968	3.201	1.153	0.436
NYJ	2-3	0.434	11.686	21.491	9.583	3.434	1.262	0.443
CAR	1-4	0.433	0.641	1.889	0.741	0.257	0.091	0.033
CLE	0-5	0.428	0.362	2.047	0.836	0.286	0.105	0.036
BUF	2-3	0.416	5.014	14.730	6.182	2.098	0.740	0.248
KC	1-4	0.411	3.177	6.182	2.485	0.817	0.284	0.093
OAK	1-3	0.408	3.664	8.680	3.600	1.192	0.411	0.135
JAC	1-4	0.373	0.341	4.460	1.560	0.459	0.146	0.043
TEN	2-4	0.368	0.444	5.691	1.934	0.558	0.174	0.051

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]

2012 World Series Projection, October 12

Divison Series
STL 2-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-2 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
SF	0.5468	100.00	41.30	20.51
DET	0.5372	100.00	46.86	20.05
WAS	0.5952	51.93	31.51	18.97
NYY	0.5852	58.07	35.16	18.75
STL	0.5765	48.07	27.19	15.26
BAL	0.5046	41.93	17.98	6.47

With the two Game 5 wins by road teams, both #2 seeds are out of the playoffs. Tonight, both matchups feature #5 at #1. I'll be rooting hard for the Cardinals of course, and less so for the Orioles. Not only because the Cards are my team, but because I'll be excited to actually get to watch the games next week, with the NLCS on Fox this year.

San Francisco and Detroit are of course at the top of the Championship odds, but that will certainly change tonight; at the very least both St. Louis and Washington will be favored over San Francisco, and the Yankees would be favored over Detroit.

Random Cardinals from Josh, Part II

[Part I]
I won a little contest at Royals and Randoms, just for doling out an opinion. The randomizer fell my way, and here's the rest of what showed up in the mail.

1990 Fleer - Stickers - Cardinals

Another sticker to start this post off, doomed to never be peeled or stuck.

1990 Fleer
#15 Mark McGwire
#257 Terry Pendleton

McGwire represents a part of my collection I have trouble explaining concisely - Cardinals in other uniforms.

1995 Collector's Choice - You Make The Play #38 Ozzie Smith

It's hard to tell from the cropping, but these are curved and thin like playing cards. There's apparently some sort of baseball sim game that goes along with it, hence the "Groundout" on the card.

2002 Stadium Club #94 Placido Polanco

This guy seems to be ageless. I guess I didn't realize he was only 26 when the Cardinals traded him away for Scott Rolen. I really didn't expect he'd play another full 10 years or more.

2004 Donruss - Leather and Lumber #135 Jim Edmonds

Jim Edmonds fits into this subset well; he's definitely a guy known for both powerful offense and acrobatic defense, though some detractors say part of the reason for his outfield diving catches was that he wasn't very good at reading the ball off the bat. Either way, he caught most of 'em, I was happy with him in CF.

2008 Upper Deck Masterpieces #83 Ozzie Smith

This is a great set looking set, and I also like it because it had players like Ozzie a full 12 years after he retired.

That's it for the package. Thanks to Josh at Royals and Randoms again for the prize!

2012 World Series Projection, October 11

Divison Series
STL 2-1 WAS
SF 2-2 CIN
BAL 1-2 NYY
DET 2-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
NYY	0.5852	82.42	46.87	25.07
STL	0.5765	73.03	40.26	21.06
OAK	0.5690	53.21	26.31	13.12
CIN	0.5596	51.30	23.15	11.25
SF	0.5468	48.70	20.61	9.44
WAS	0.5952	26.97	15.98	9.02
DET	0.5372	46.79	19.92	8.55
BAL	0.5046	17.58	6.91	2.49

The Giants and A's stave off elimination again, and there's going to be another great day of 4 playoff games. 2 teams will be eliminated tonight, and up to 4 could be. The Yankees and Cardinals are in the best positions now, due to their 2-1 leads, but a Baltimore or Washington win could turn that around quickly.

Random Cardinals from Josh, Part I

I won a little contest at Royals and Randoms, just for doling out an opinion. The randomizer fell my way, and here's what showed up in the mail.

1983 Topps #734 Steve Braun

 The oldest card of the bunch, nearly as old as me. I must admit I don't think I've heard of Steve Braun though.

1987 Sportflics #173 John Tudor

I'm not sure why I even scan Sportflics cards. They never look nice like they do in person.

1991 Classic Game
#29 Joe Magrane
#173 Todd Zeile

Now we're getting to the guys I remember.

1991 Fleer - Team Stickers - Cardinals 

I wish I wasn't so hung up on keeping my cards in good condition so I could stick these stickers on things.

1995 Flair #410 Brian Jordan

 This is my first 1995 Flair card, I think, unless there are some in my unsorted boxes.

2005 Turkey Red #39 Preston Wilson

I like all of the Turkey Red sets, so I've got most of the Cardinals (and former/future Cardinals) on my wantlist. This knocks one more of them off, which is always appreciated.

More next time...

2012 World Series Projection, October 10

Divison Series
STL 1-1 WAS
SF 1-2 CIN
BAL 1-1 NYY
DET 2-1 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
NYY	0.5852	62.01	36.32	19.09
WAS	0.5952	52.89	30.98	18.24
CIN	0.5596	76.28	33.60	17.17
STL	0.5765	47.11	25.63	14.05
DET	0.5372	71.69	33.10	13.90
OAK	0.5690	28.31	15.01	7.34
BAL	0.5046	37.99	15.57	5.48
SF	0.5468	23.72	9.79	4.73

Two series had a chance to finish yesterday, but neither did. That leaves us with all 8 teams playing today, which is great because I happen to be off work. I'm hoping for St. Louis, San Francisco, Baltimore, and Oakland to pull out wins today.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 5, Final

Houston over Atlanta

No surprises here, the two 5-0 teams are still in the best position to make the Superbowl. San Francisco and Chicago remain the strongest teams though, so they'll be favored in any individual matchup. I don't personally find Houston or Atlanta to be interesting teams, so I'm hoping for some movement in the standings in the next few weeks. Given the two undefeated teams, we're really not that far away from seeing a few teams officially eliminated from the playoffs, maybe in as few as 4-5 more weeks.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	4-1	0.629	53.452	76.618	58.573	32.991	18.267	10.225
CHI	4-1	0.626	51.787	79.506	60.685	33.959	18.726	10.414
HOU	5-0	0.623	93.050	98.459	91.525	54.888	31.705	17.032
ATL	5-0	0.594	94.401	95.909	80.568	42.607	21.718	11.370
MIN	4-1	0.587	41.892	70.634	50.278	25.546	12.867	6.644
BAL	4-1	0.580	67.236	87.976	69.815	37.532	19.093	9.406
NE	3-2	0.580	66.299	77.987	54.856	28.453	14.552	7.172
NYG	3-2	0.569	41.574	51.363	31.338	15.027	7.211	3.587
SEA	3-2	0.547	10.255	33.518	19.327	8.896	4.104	1.953
SD	3-2	0.545	58.771	73.115	48.513	23.227	10.926	4.989
ARI	4-1	0.543	25.418	55.720	34.498	15.772	7.184	3.387
DEN	2-3	0.539	34.374	49.380	28.857	13.383	6.258	2.821
PIT	2-2	0.508	16.194	40.888	22.972	9.983	4.361	1.836
STL	3-2	0.505	10.874	29.595	15.526	6.484	2.716	1.180
GB	2-3	0.502	4.793	14.388	7.155	2.962	1.241	0.535
MIA	2-3	0.500	17.056	34.207	17.788	7.510	3.228	1.334
CIN	3-2	0.493	16.262	46.109	25.115	10.497	4.417	1.793
WAS	2-3	0.489	16.304	20.915	9.788	3.875	1.550	0.649
TB	1-3	0.481	3.347	8.223	3.806	1.499	0.597	0.245
NO	1-4	0.479	1.611	4.083	1.857	0.731	0.292	0.119
DET	1-3	0.476	1.528	6.000	2.755	1.070	0.421	0.171
IND	2-2	0.465	6.317	34.175	16.562	6.363	2.561	0.974
PHI	3-2	0.452	25.248	30.830	14.127	5.120	1.863	0.716
DAL	2-2	0.447	16.874	20.802	8.976	3.204	1.154	0.437
NYJ	2-3	0.434	11.654	20.447	9.053	3.247	1.196	0.420
CAR	1-4	0.433	0.642	1.895	0.744	0.258	0.092	0.033
CLE	0-5	0.428	0.309	1.926	0.786	0.269	0.099	0.034
BUF	2-3	0.416	4.991	13.839	5.801	1.972	0.697	0.233
KC	1-4	0.411	3.173	5.990	2.400	0.792	0.275	0.091
OAK	1-3	0.408	3.683	8.441	3.491	1.157	0.400	0.131
TEN	1-4	0.376	0.290	3.103	1.075	0.318	0.101	0.030
JAC	1-4	0.373	0.343	3.957	1.390	0.409	0.131	0.039

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]

2012 World Series Projection, October 9

Divison Series
STL 1-1 WAS
SF 0-2 CIN
BAL 1-1 NYY
DET 2-0 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
CIN	0.5596	88.45	38.96	20.09
NYY	0.5852	62.01	36.89	19.34
WAS	0.5952	52.89	30.80	18.28
DET	0.5372	84.93	39.21	16.42
STL	0.5765	47.11	25.47	14.07
BAL	0.5046	37.99	15.91	5.58
OAK	0.5690	15.07	7.99	3.90
SF	0.5468	11.55	4.77	2.32

I'm relieve the Cardinals pulled even in their series, especially after losing Jaime Garcia early in the game. I was also glad to see the Orioles manage a win. I'm not sure they can win their series, but they're a good story for this year and I'm glad they're not getting swept. The smartest money is now on the Reds to win it all, although they wouldn't be favored against the Yankees or A's.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Houston over Atlanta

Well this is sort of interesting, even though the projected Superbowl matchup hasn't changed. San Francisco and Chicago are now the strongest teams in the league because of their big wins, but a solid undefeated record in a weak division will guarantee a higher seed and get you much further than a good record atop a good division.

Even though Tennessee and Carolina are 1-4 and Cleveland is 0-5, they're all about 1 in 3000 shots to win the Superbowl now.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	4-1	0.629	53.632	76.674	58.600	33.004	18.276	10.400
CHI	4-1	0.626	51.802	79.711	60.895	34.073	18.785	10.623
HOU	4-0	0.605	89.302	96.207	85.898	49.744	27.861	14.426
ATL	5-0	0.594	94.405	95.911	80.519	42.577	21.692	11.556
MIN	4-1	0.587	41.883	70.863	50.490	25.648	12.914	6.786
BAL	4-1	0.580	67.467	87.800	70.277	38.223	19.945	9.829
NE	3-2	0.580	63.098	76.620	54.737	28.864	15.092	7.434
NYG	3-2	0.569	41.579	51.347	31.317	15.011	7.205	3.653
SEA	3-2	0.547	10.218	33.329	19.204	8.837	4.077	1.978
SD	3-2	0.545	58.592	72.522	48.786	23.792	11.454	5.231
ARI	4-1	0.543	25.322	55.485	34.307	15.685	7.141	3.431
DEN	2-3	0.539	34.522	48.713	28.711	13.604	6.490	2.926
PIT	2-2	0.508	16.081	40.369	22.938	10.197	4.554	1.916
STL	3-2	0.505	10.829	29.383	15.395	6.430	2.693	1.195
GB	2-3	0.502	4.791	14.548	7.236	2.994	1.253	0.552
MIA	2-3	0.500	15.665	32.669	17.214	7.446	3.271	1.351
CIN	3-2	0.493	16.146	45.140	24.846	10.629	4.575	1.856
WAS	2-3	0.489	16.313	20.917	9.784	3.870	1.549	0.661
TB	1-3	0.481	3.344	8.205	3.799	1.495	0.594	0.250
NO	1-4	0.479	1.609	4.071	1.851	0.728	0.290	0.121
DET	1-3	0.476	1.523	6.076	2.789	1.083	0.427	0.177
IND	2-2	0.465	9.512	34.600	17.442	6.941	2.835	1.077
PHI	3-2	0.452	25.242	30.805	14.112	5.109	1.861	0.730
NYJ	2-2	0.448	16.660	29.232	14.449	5.554	2.157	0.784
DAL	2-2	0.447	16.866	20.784	8.961	3.197	1.151	0.446
CAR	1-4	0.433	0.641	1.890	0.742	0.258	0.091	0.034
CLE	0-5	0.428	0.306	1.811	0.744	0.265	0.099	0.034
BUF	2-3	0.416	4.576	13.238	5.650	1.979	0.712	0.238
KC	1-4	0.411	3.188	5.796	2.343	0.802	0.284	0.094
OAK	1-3	0.408	3.699	8.167	3.413	1.173	0.414	0.136
TEN	1-4	0.376	0.547	3.126	1.109	0.344	0.112	0.034
JAC	1-4	0.373	0.639	3.988	1.442	0.444	0.144	0.043

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]

2012 World Series Projection, October 8

Divison Series
STL 0-1 WAS
SF 0-2 CIN
BAL 0-1 NYY
DET 2-0 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
NYY	0.5852	79.79	47.47	24.66
WAS	0.5952	71.59	41.69	24.09
CIN	0.5596	88.45	38.27	19.12
DET	0.5372	84.93	36.55	15.13
STL	0.5765	28.41	15.36	8.24
OAK	0.5690	15.07	7.52	3.63
BAL	0.5046	20.21	8.46	2.93
SF	0.5468	11.55	4.68	2.20

Cincinnati and Detroit are in good position with 2-0 leads, but the Yankees and Nationals are still at the top of their leagues with just 1-0 leads. Assuming the Cardinals win, I really hope San Francisco can win a game or two to at least tire out the Red's bullpen and keep them from setting up their starters against us just so.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

Ohio State is ineligible for postseason this year (along with Penn State) but I decided not to take that into consideration in my rankings. Thank goodness too, or else Oregon would be #1. I'm not sure what it would say about a sport so reliant on recruiting to have an ineligible team be the best of the year.

Congrats to Idaho on the win this week, a former #120 in my rankings. Maybe Tulane can pull some magic out of their hat for their next game.

Finally, Missouri, it's going to be hard for you to make a bowl this year at this rate. Vanderbilt was about as easy as it was going to get for the rest of the year.

1	Ohio State	6-0
2	Oregon	6-0
3	South Carolina	6-0
4	Notre Dame	5-0
5	West Virginia	5-0
6	Florida	5-0
7	Ohio	6-0
8	Alabama	5-0
9	Florida State	5-1
10	Georgia	5-1
11	Rutgers	5-0
12	Kansas State	5-0
13	Northern Illinois	5-1
14	Toledo	5-1
15	Duke	5-1
16	LSU	5-1
17	Stanford	4-1
18	Iowa State	4-1
19	Clemson	5-1
20	Mississippi State	5-0
21	Northwestern	5-1
22	Tulsa	5-1
23	Louisiana Tech	5-0
24	Oregon State	4-0
25	Nevada	5-1
26	Louisville	5-0
27	Texas Tech	4-1
28	Miami (FL)	4-2
29	North Carolina State	4-2
30	Texas	4-1
31	Cincinnati	4-0
32	Michigan State	4-2
33	Arizona State	4-1
34	Boise State	4-1
35	Texas A&M	4-1
36	Penn State	4-2
37	Minnesota	4-1
38	USC	4-1
39	San Jose State	4-1
40	Nebraska	4-2
41	Wisconsin	4-2
42	North Carolina	4-2
43	TCU	4-1
44	Western Kentucky	4-1
45	Fresno State	4-2
46	UCLA	4-2
47	Kent State	4-1
48	Utah State	4-2
49	Brigham Young	4-2
50	Washington	3-2
51	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-1
52	Arizona	3-3
53	Baylor	3-1
54	Iowa	3-2
55	Missouri	3-3
56	Oklahoma	3-1
57	Maryland	3-2
58	Purdue	3-2
59	Michigan	3-2
60	Tennessee	3-2
61	Wake Forest	3-3
62	Ball State	3-3
63	UCF	3-2
64	Troy	3-2
65	Ole Miss	3-3
66	New Mexico	3-3
67	Western Michigan	3-3
68	Connecticut	3-3
69	Miami (OH)	3-3
70	East Carolina	3-3
71	San Diego State	3-3
72	Arkansas State	3-3
73	Middle Tennessee	3-2
74	Louisiana-Monroe	3-2
75	Virginia Tech	3-3
76	Central Michigan	2-3
77	Bowling Green	3-3
78	Syracuse	2-3
79	Vanderbilt	2-3
80	California	2-4
81	Temple	2-2
82	Virginia	2-4
83	South Florida	2-4
84	Oklahoma State	2-2
85	Utah	2-3
86	Navy	2-3
87	Illinois	2-4
88	Arkansas	2-4
89	Indiana	2-3
90	Marshall	2-4
91	Southern Methodist	2-3
92	Pittsburgh	2-3
93	Washington State	2-4
94	Houston	2-3
95	Georgia Tech	2-4
96	Kentucky	1-5
97	North Texas	2-4
98	UAB	1-4
99	Auburn	1-4
100	Wyoming	1-4
101	Buffalo	1-4
102	Air Force	2-3
103	Kansas	1-4
104	Boston College	1-4
105	Hawaii	1-4
106	Florida Atlantic	1-4
107	Army	1-4
108	Memphis	1-4
109	UNLV	1-5
110	Florida International	1-5
111	Colorado	1-4
112	Colorado State	1-5
113	Idaho	1-5
114	New Mexico State	1-5
115	UTEP	1-5
116	Akron	1-5
117	Rice	1-5
118	Southern Miss	0-5
119	Eastern Michigan	0-5
120	Tulane	0-5

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]

2012 World Series Projection, October 7

Divison Series
STL 0-0 WAS
SF 0-1 CIN
BAL 0-0 NYY
DET 1-0 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
NYY	0.5852	64.88	37.65	19.80
WAS	0.5952	53.61	31.48	18.38
CIN	0.5596	70.68	31.11	15.74
STL	0.5765	46.39	25.31	13.74
DET	0.5372	63.79	29.13	12.24
OAK	0.5690	36.21	19.02	9.31
SF	0.5468	29.32	12.09	5.78
BAL	0.5046	35.12	14.20	5.00

A 1-0 lead in a Best-of-5 series is clearly a big deal, as Cincinnati and Detroit are now 70% and 63% favorites, respectively, to make the LCS. I find it interesting that Cinncinnati's win lowers Washington's odds of making the World Series, which is obviously true because they are more likely to face a stronger NLCS opponent now. However, Washington's overall championship odds increased, presumably because of the loss by the stronger Oakland team to the weaker Detroit team, cascading all the way to the situations in which one of those two teams could face Washington.

2012 World Series Projection, October 6

If I post this daily, I'll never be able to concisely relay the state of multiple series in a post title.

Divison Series
STL 0-0 WAS
SF 0-0 CIN
BAL 0-0 NYY
DET 0-0 OAK


Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
NYY	0.5852	64.88	36.77	19.40
WAS	0.5952	53.61	31.75	18.34
OAK	0.5690	56.00	29.41	14.45
STL	0.5765	46.39	25.55	13.70
CIN	0.5596	52.44	23.08	11.52
SF	0.5468	47.56	19.61	9.24
DET	0.5372	44.00	20.09	8.48
BAL	0.5046	35.12	13.73	4.86

The Yankees climb to be the favorites with the Baltimore upset of Texas. They're nearly a 2:1 favorite to win the ALDS against the O's and so have a large chance making the World Series.

I'll be rooting for St. Louis of course, and I'd kind of like to give them an easier path to another championship, so I guess I'll root for San Francisco against the Reds, Baltimore over the Yankees, and Detroit over Oakland, for now. We'll see how my feelings may change if the Cardinals get eliminated and I get to pick a new favorite team.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Houston over Atlanta

I hear from around the country that the Rams-Cardinals game was boring, but for a Rams fan it was rather exciting. See, we're always on the edge of our seats when we're winning, waiting to see when that slim lead is going to slip away. But, while we were watching closely, Sam Bradford threw a career-long 51-yard touchdown and solidified the lead. The Rams got the ball back twice more and seemed to barely run any time off the clock before punting it away, keeping us right on the edge of our seats once again. In the end, we got a good division win over the team that skipped town 25 years ago.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	4-0	0.605	91.085	96.045	85.986	50.002	28.370	15.805
ATL	4-0	0.579	90.776	92.867	76.702	41.997	22.615	11.786
SF	3-1	0.576	38.507	62.475	45.158	24.287	12.929	6.710
CHI	3-1	0.575	44.855	67.337	49.450	26.603	14.135	7.325
BAL	3-1	0.564	56.451	78.858	58.380	30.457	15.447	7.959
NE	2-2	0.564	51.891	62.703	41.244	20.973	10.654	5.492
SD	3-1	0.559	60.654	79.809	58.609	30.289	15.209	7.763
DEN	2-2	0.556	34.256	59.092	38.384	19.334	9.659	4.894
NYG	2-2	0.550	26.751	39.765	25.137	12.554	6.273	3.086
ARI	4-1	0.543	35.430	62.197	42.781	21.365	10.578	5.134
MIN	3-1	0.541	36.761	58.179	39.936	19.824	9.753	4.713
SEA	2-2	0.535	10.389	29.837	18.033	8.780	4.282	2.042
GB	2-2	0.509	15.167	28.818	16.682	7.695	3.548	1.604
STL	3-2	0.505	15.674	35.232	20.508	9.363	4.272	1.913
PIT	1-2	0.504	13.510	30.106	16.744	7.432	3.315	1.508
CIN	3-1	0.500	29.057	58.628	35.355	15.670	6.890	3.109
WAS	2-2	0.500	23.876	32.977	19.030	8.519	3.816	1.690
MIA	1-3	0.491	12.475	20.925	10.683	4.561	1.978	0.876
TB	1-3	0.481	5.461	10.618	5.344	2.320	1.013	0.430
BUF	2-2	0.476	16.794	30.047	15.610	6.466	2.709	1.160
DET	1-3	0.476	3.218	8.184	4.149	1.773	0.761	0.319
NO	0-4	0.469	1.561	3.065	1.451	0.616	0.264	0.109
IND	1-2	0.459	5.583	20.804	10.207	4.055	1.655	0.680
PHI	3-1	0.458	33.663	41.505	22.669	9.193	3.733	1.502
CLE	0-4	0.448	0.981	3.758	1.675	0.640	0.253	0.101
NYJ	2-2	0.447	18.839	28.026	13.814	5.350	2.094	0.838
DAL	2-2	0.447	15.709	20.807	10.161	3.996	1.580	0.617
CAR	1-3	0.446	2.202	6.137	2.808	1.115	0.448	0.175
KC	1-3	0.428	3.239	8.998	4.009	1.475	0.555	0.211
JAC	1-3	0.426	2.007	9.647	4.147	1.508	0.569	0.216
TEN	1-3	0.408	1.324	6.056	2.438	0.844	0.303	0.110
OAK	1-3	0.408	1.852	6.501	2.715	0.944	0.339	0.123

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]

2012 World Series Projection, Pre-Wildcard Playoff

I had no idea how to describe this moment in the season, so I went with Pre-Wildcard Playoff.

I threw this together yesterday, but instead of running millions of simulations, I simply calculated probabilities based on the strength, as defined by runs scored and runs allowed.

The LDS column shows each team's chances of making the Division Series. Obviously for 6 teams, they are already in. The Wild Card teams all have chances equal to their odds of winning 1 game against the opponent. So the Cardinals and Braves are nearly evenly matched, while Texas is more heavily favored.

The LCS column is each team's chance of appearing in the League Championship Series. This is where it gets more complex. A team's LCS chance is their LDS chance, times the sum of their odds of beating each potential opponent in a 5 game series, times those teams' LDS odds. Most teams have only one potential opponent in the LDS, but Washington and New York each have 2. A certain modified binomial distribution comes into play, because the odds of winning a series 3-0, 3-1, and 3-2 must all be considered.

The WS (World Series) column works similarly, it is the LCS column times the sum of each potential LCS opponent's LCS column, times the odds of beating that team in 7 games. The final column works the same way, multiplying WS odds times the odds of beating each of the 5 opponents in a 7 game series.

Ok, if you haven't gone cross-eyed yet, just look at the table to see your team's chances.

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5952	+	54.12	32.05	18.27
NYY	0.5852	+	59.10	33.49	17.72
OAK	0.5690	+	56.00	28.24	13.92
CIN	0.5596	+	52.44	23.21	11.40
SF	0.5468	+	47.56	19.73	9.13
DET	0.5372	+	44.00	19.14	8.11
STL	0.5765	50.55	23.45	12.92	6.82
ATL	0.5711	49.45	22.43	12.09	6.24
TEX	0.5617	55.72	25.35	13.05	6.22
BAL	0.5046	44.28	15.55	6.08	2.16

For anyone but Baltimore, the odds will improve drastically with a win in the Wildcard game, because the teams are actually stronger than some of the division winners.

Let's get ready for some playoff baseball!

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 4, Final

Houston over Atlanta

Try as everyone might, Houston and Atlanta remain at the top of the pack. Chicago is just behind San Francisco in strength, but sits in a more favorable position to win their division and ultimately the Super Bowl

On a personal note (sort of), I trailed in my fantasy league by 26.2 points going into Monday night, with only the Bears defense left to play. By our rules, they scored 24 points for me. Thanks for at least making it interesting for me, guys.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	4-0	0.605	91.103	96.048	85.971	49.944	28.304	15.641
ATL	4-0	0.579	90.546	92.694	75.576	41.058	21.855	11.381
SF	3-1	0.576	31.858	62.862	43.843	23.240	12.310	6.386
CHI	3-1	0.576	44.446	66.570	48.080	25.604	13.472	6.993
ARI	4-0	0.568	54.615	79.498	60.862	32.005	16.601	8.458
BAL	3-1	0.564	56.488	78.892	58.403	30.482	15.457	7.915
NE	2-2	0.564	52.191	63.058	41.535	21.132	10.757	5.496
SD	3-1	0.560	60.657	79.769	58.568	30.277	15.200	7.687
DEN	2-2	0.556	34.267	59.072	38.383	19.334	9.643	4.849
NYG	2-2	0.550	26.789	39.875	24.762	12.235	6.064	2.978
MIN	3-1	0.541	37.068	58.354	39.397	19.380	9.446	4.567
SEA	2-2	0.535	7.897	30.269	17.619	8.456	4.094	1.953
GB	2-2	0.509	15.346	28.695	16.373	7.479	3.409	1.541
PIT	1-2	0.504	13.498	30.067	16.726	7.420	3.308	1.495
CIN	3-1	0.500	29.041	58.572	35.276	15.651	6.905	3.089
WAS	2-2	0.500	23.868	33.120	18.766	8.311	3.687	1.630
MIA	1-3	0.491	12.554	21.128	10.780	4.590	1.989	0.872
TB	1-3	0.480	5.656	10.770	5.337	2.294	0.980	0.420
BUF	2-2	0.476	16.613	29.956	15.543	6.426	2.697	1.136
DET	1-3	0.476	3.140	7.857	3.930	1.660	0.700	0.296
STL	2-2	0.474	5.630	17.596	9.085	3.824	1.619	0.679
NO	0-4	0.469	1.577	3.093	1.442	0.604	0.255	0.105
IND	1-2	0.459	5.572	20.713	10.156	4.039	1.649	0.670
PHI	3-1	0.458	33.623	41.695	22.183	8.890	3.565	1.437
CLE	0-4	0.448	0.973	3.741	1.657	0.631	0.252	0.099
NYJ	2-2	0.447	18.643	27.941	13.768	5.342	2.093	0.829
DAL	2-2	0.446	15.720	20.841	9.947	3.866	1.509	0.587
CAR	1-3	0.445	2.221	6.210	2.798	1.096	0.434	0.170
KC	1-3	0.428	3.234	8.951	3.979	1.460	0.547	0.204
JAC	1-3	0.426	2.004	9.630	4.138	1.506	0.570	0.216
TEN	1-3	0.408	1.322	6.009	2.422	0.835	0.302	0.108
OAK	1-3	0.408	1.842	6.454	2.695	0.933	0.328	0.115

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Houston over Atlanta

San Francisco made a big push with their shutout victory, but Atlanta remains the top NFC team and most likely to make the Superbowl. Arizona is right behind San Francisco in strength, and has a 4-0 record, something that is really keeping both teams from having a clear path. At most 1 of the 2 could have a first round bye, after all.

At the bottom of the pack, Cleveland is the first team under a 1/1000 shot of being champion, with 0-4 New Orleans right behind (or is that ahead of) them.

I was very impressed with my Rams' victory over the Seahawks, especially Greg Zuerlein, but they've still got a negative point differential that puts them near the bottom of the pack in strength, and they've got Arizona and San Francisco dominating the division right now. I still feel like this might be a playoff year, even though they currently sit at a 5.5% chance of the division and 17.6% chance of playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	4-0	0.605	91.191	96.129	86.206	50.154	28.449	15.849
ATL	4-0	0.579	90.379	92.556	75.814	41.570	22.363	11.655
SF	3-1	0.576	31.924	63.349	44.500	23.823	12.720	6.603
ARI	4-0	0.568	54.625	79.923	61.667	32.726	17.164	8.754
BAL	3-1	0.564	56.484	78.600	58.056	30.275	15.360	7.915
NE	2-2	0.564	52.180	63.128	41.617	21.166	10.750	5.540
SD	3-1	0.560	60.655	79.869	58.673	30.312	15.223	7.770
DEN	2-2	0.556	34.268	59.163	38.451	19.365	9.670	4.899
CHI	2-1	0.550	33.229	51.163	34.131	17.250	8.643	4.256
NYG	2-2	0.550	23.496	38.106	23.901	11.936	5.969	2.938
MIN	3-1	0.541	43.965	60.850	41.655	20.675	10.141	4.901
SEA	2-2	0.535	7.928	31.049	18.175	8.801	4.294	2.047
GB	2-2	0.509	18.735	30.359	17.403	8.021	3.685	1.666
PIT	1-2	0.504	13.501	29.750	16.523	7.324	3.267	1.485
CIN	3-1	0.500	29.034	58.146	34.988	15.500	6.809	3.073
WAS	2-2	0.500	20.885	30.983	17.796	7.958	3.568	1.581
MIA	1-3	0.491	12.567	21.218	10.836	4.623	2.006	0.888
DAL	2-1	0.481	26.061	36.180	20.543	8.799	3.766	1.598
TB	1-3	0.480	5.793	10.842	5.427	2.361	1.028	0.436
BUF	2-2	0.476	16.605	30.042	15.597	6.456	2.702	1.154
DET	1-3	0.476	4.071	8.671	4.348	1.851	0.792	0.331
STL	2-2	0.474	5.523	17.623	9.208	3.909	1.671	0.698
NO	0-4	0.469	1.571	3.088	1.452	0.616	0.263	0.108
IND	1-2	0.459	5.477	20.797	10.187	4.044	1.649	0.678
PHI	3-1	0.458	29.558	38.972	21.124	8.571	3.480	1.398
CLE	0-4	0.448	0.982	3.675	1.635	0.624	0.246	0.099
NYJ	2-2	0.447	18.648	27.996	13.806	5.351	2.094	0.837
CAR	1-3	0.445	2.257	6.284	2.856	1.134	0.453	0.177
KC	1-3	0.428	3.230	8.995	4.010	1.473	0.554	0.211
JAC	1-3	0.426	2.005	9.822	4.221	1.532	0.578	0.220
TEN	1-3	0.408	1.326	6.184	2.490	0.860	0.308	0.112
OAK	1-3	0.408	1.846	6.488	2.707	0.941	0.336	0.122

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]