2012 World Series Projection, Pre-Wildcard Playoff

I had no idea how to describe this moment in the season, so I went with Pre-Wildcard Playoff.

I threw this together yesterday, but instead of running millions of simulations, I simply calculated probabilities based on the strength, as defined by runs scored and runs allowed.

The LDS column shows each team's chances of making the Division Series. Obviously for 6 teams, they are already in. The Wild Card teams all have chances equal to their odds of winning 1 game against the opponent. So the Cardinals and Braves are nearly evenly matched, while Texas is more heavily favored.

The LCS column is each team's chance of appearing in the League Championship Series. This is where it gets more complex. A team's LCS chance is their LDS chance, times the sum of their odds of beating each potential opponent in a 5 game series, times those teams' LDS odds. Most teams have only one potential opponent in the LDS, but Washington and New York each have 2. A certain modified binomial distribution comes into play, because the odds of winning a series 3-0, 3-1, and 3-2 must all be considered.

The WS (World Series) column works similarly, it is the LCS column times the sum of each potential LCS opponent's LCS column, times the odds of beating that team in 7 games. The final column works the same way, multiplying WS odds times the odds of beating each of the 5 opponents in a 7 game series.

Ok, if you haven't gone cross-eyed yet, just look at the table to see your team's chances.

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5952	+	54.12	32.05	18.27
NYY	0.5852	+	59.10	33.49	17.72
OAK	0.5690	+	56.00	28.24	13.92
CIN	0.5596	+	52.44	23.21	11.40
SF	0.5468	+	47.56	19.73	9.13
DET	0.5372	+	44.00	19.14	8.11
STL	0.5765	50.55	23.45	12.92	6.82
ATL	0.5711	49.45	22.43	12.09	6.24
TEX	0.5617	55.72	25.35	13.05	6.22
BAL	0.5046	44.28	15.55	6.08	2.16

For anyone but Baltimore, the odds will improve drastically with a win in the Wildcard game, because the teams are actually stronger than some of the division winners.

Let's get ready for some playoff baseball!