2025-01-06

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 18, Final

Detroit over Baltimore

Kansas City wasn't an overpowering team as it was, then they go and lose 38-0 in a game they didn't really show up for. That puts Baltimore as the top AFC team now, despite having to play during wildcard weekend. This is also Baltimore's first appearance on the projection this season.

Now, as is tradition, here's who I'm rooting for on Wildcard Saturday:

Los Angeles Chargers (70%) at Houston
I don't know, Harbaugh I guess. I don't care much about either of these two teams, but LA did execute a fair catch kick a few weeks ago. I do enjoy a good rulebook quirk.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (69%)
I've got to root for my Pittsburgh pals, although I don't seem to have the strong distaste for Baltimore that I used to.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DET15-20.817++++++68.143.428.4
PHI14-30.781++++58.637.618.911.4
BAL12-50.747++++69.238.422.910.9
BUF13-40.744++++53.228.217.88.4
LAC11-60.704-++70.437.218.98.0
DEN10-70.718-++46.828.415.16.7
KC15-20.622++++++44.917.76.0
MIN14-30.688-++71.930.311.95.8
TB10-70.689++++53.724.69.54.6
GB11-60.716-++41.414.98.34.3
WSH12-50.656-++46.318.26.73.0
PIT10-70.568-++30.813.34.81.4
HOU10-70.500++++29.69.62.90.7
LAR10-70.462++++28.16.31.30.4
CIN9-80.563------
ARI8-90.540------
SEA10-70.514------
MIA8-90.460------
ATL8-90.438------
SF6-110.415------
IND8-90.408------
NO5-120.380------
CHI5-120.370------
NYJ5-120.369------
DAL7-100.295------
JAX4-130.285------
LV4-130.265------
NE4-130.250------
TEN3-140.236------
NYG3-140.222------
CAR5-120.207------
CLE3-140.173------

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Bye: Kansas City (Week 17, Wednesday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Wednesday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 18, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City

2025-01-05

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 18, Saturday

Detroit over Kansas City

I'm not sure exactly what the NFL was hoping for by putting both games from the same division on Saturday. It kind of worked out, in that Pittsburgh was motivated to try to win to at least get a higher wildcard seed, although if Baltimore had lost, they'd be playing for the division title. Cincinnati needed a win to stay alive and got it, without any concurrent games by Denver or Miami going on to knock them out. The final Sunday has 2 NFC divisions left to settle, with the NFC South loser getting left out of the playoffs, while the NFC North loser will be just about the best wildcard team ever. The AFC has one wildcard spot to give out, with Denver, Miami, and the aforementioned Cincinnati in the hunt.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DET14-20.78658.7++89.255.233.020.0
KC15-10.693++++++59.728.112.5
BUF13-30.747++++68.137.522.411.4
BAL12-50.747++++67.436.922.011.2
PHI13-30.764++++57.335.418.910.9
MIN14-20.72141.3++80.641.419.610.2
LAC10-60.680-++65.231.114.96.4
GB11-50.717-++47.421.311.05.7
WSH11-50.648-++55.521.88.53.7
TB9-70.67581.681.637.916.97.13.3
PIT10-70.568-++35.213.34.91.6
DEN9-70.649-45.117.47.83.61.4
HOU9-70.482++++32.29.02.60.6
LAR10-60.472++++28.26.91.60.5
CIN9-80.563-19.86.02.20.80.3
MIA8-80.485-35.28.52.50.80.2
ATL8-80.44618.418.43.91.00.20.1
SEA9-70.504------
ARI7-90.496------
SF6-100.455------
IND7-90.402------
NO5-110.395------
CHI4-120.366------
NYJ4-120.346------
DAL7-90.304------
JAX4-120.290------
LV4-120.288------
TEN3-130.255------
NE3-130.242------
NYG3-130.239------
CAR4-120.196------
CLE3-140.173------

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Bye: Kansas City (Week 17, Wednesday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Wednesday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] Detroit over Kansas City