2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 13

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-1 CGY
VGK 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-0 NSH
STL 2-0 WPG
CBJ 2-0 TBL
TOR 1-0 BOS
CAR 0-1 WSH
PIT 0-2 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CGY	0.618	81.0	54.5	36.7	20.8
TBL	0.682	37.8	28.1	21.6	16.1
NYI	0.575	81.8	44.6	19.9	10.2
STL	0.551	82.2	44.2	18.6	7.5
TOR	0.565	60.4	25.8	12.7	6.2
WSH	0.555	67.2	32.0	13.0	6.1
BOS	0.592	39.6	19.1	11.0	6.0
CBJ	0.553	62.2	27.0	12.5	5.6
SJS	0.551	50.2	19.1	10.1	4.1
NSH	0.557	41.6	22.0	9.5	4.0
VGK	0.540	49.8	17.8	8.4	3.2
DAL	0.519	58.4	24.2	8.7	2.9
CAR	0.547	32.8	14.0	5.4	2.4
PIT	0.562	18.2	9.4	3.9	1.8
WPG	0.554	17.8	9.7	4.1	1.7
COL	0.528	19.0	8.5	3.8	1.3

We've got 1 split series and 3 with a team up 2-0, with St. Louis and Columbus both winning 2 road games. In spite of being behind in the series and only 37.8% likely to win, Tampa Bay is still the most likely team to win the East, because they have a very high strength value due to their goals scored and allowed this year, so in the event they can win this first round, they'll be massively favored in future rounds. New York is creeping up right behind them though, so Sunday's games could have them finally flip.