2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 10

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-0 CGY
VGK 0-0 SJS
DAL 0-0 NSH
STL 0-0 WPG
CBJ 0-0 TBL
TOR 0-0 BOS
CAR 0-0 WSH
PIT 0-0 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
TBL	0.682	78.4	57.7	44.4	33.4
CGY	0.618	70.7	47.6	31.7	15.8
BOS	0.592	57.6	20.3	11.9	6.6
NYI	0.575	54.5	30.0	10.7	5.6
NSH	0.557	59.7	31.4	14.1	5.1
WPG	0.554	52.3	27.4	12.1	4.3
SJS	0.551	54.0	21.8	11.4	4.0
WSH	0.555	53.3	25.8	8.2	3.9
PIT	0.562	45.5	23.8	7.8	3.8
STL	0.551	47.7	24.6	10.7	3.7
TOR	0.565	42.4	12.8	6.5	3.2
CAR	0.547	46.7	20.3	6.1	2.7
VGK	0.540	46.0	17.6	8.2	2.6
CBJ	0.553	21.6	9.2	4.3	1.9
DAL	0.519	40.3	16.6	6.2	1.8
COL	0.528	29.3	13.0	5.7	1.7

It's time to kick off the playoff projections for the NHL. I'm still using the baseball-style model of projection using goals scored and allowed, with a home-ice advantage factored in per game. That works for the playoffs when there are no ties. I've got a couple other ideas for different models I hope to implement one of these years.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Tampa Bay is favored by far, with a +103 goal differential. They were the only team to score over 300 goals, all the way up at 325. On the other end, the only team to allow under 200 was the New York Islanders at 196, but they only scored 228 so they don't rise all the way up the list. But, they may surprise everyone and shut down some of these powerful offenses.