2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 11

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-0 CGY
VGK 0-1 SJS
DAL 1-0 NSH
STL 1-0 WPG
CBJ 1-0 TBL
TOR 0-0 BOS
CAR 0-0 WSH
PIT 0-1 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
TBL	0.682	61.3	45.1	34.6	26.1
CGY	0.618	70.7	47.4	31.9	16.8
NYI	0.575	68.2	37.6	14.8	7.7
BOS	0.592	57.6	23.5	13.6	7.6
STL	0.551	65.1	35.0	15.1	5.6
SJS	0.551	67.8	27.4	14.5	5.4
WSH	0.555	53.3	25.6	9.0	4.3
NSH	0.557	41.6	21.9	9.8	3.8
TOR	0.565	42.4	15.0	7.6	3.7
CBJ	0.553	38.7	16.4	7.6	3.5
WPG	0.554	34.9	19.0	8.3	3.1
CAR	0.547	46.7	20.2	6.7	3.0
PIT	0.562	31.8	16.6	6.0	2.9
DAL	0.519	58.4	24.2	8.9	2.7
VGK	0.540	32.2	12.3	5.8	2.0
COL	0.528	29.3	12.9	5.8	1.9

We had 5 games to open the playoffs, and 3 of them were upsets. Dallas and St. Louis's wins were not huge upsets, but Columbus raised their series-winning chances from 21.6% to 38.7% against the overwhelming strength of Tampa Bay. The two close series have flipped favorites, so that the team up 1-0 is now more likely than not to win, but I'd still favor Tampa Bay to overcome their 0-1 deficit over Columbus.