Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Sunday

San Francisco over New England

Green Bay eliminated Chicago last night and gained some ground on San Francisco, but they're still not my Superbowl favorites.  Tonight's game is somewhat meaningless, except for seeding purposes, as you can see New Orleans and Atlanta are already in the playoffs. Atlanta can still win the NFC South and get a home playoff game, so they at least have something to play for.  

For Dallas and New York's winner take all next week, I show a 62% chance of a Cowboys win.  I'm glad to see no 7-9 teams will make the playoffs this year, and in fact the only 8-8 will Denver if they and Oakland both lose next week, as all of the other 8-7 teams need a win (and help) to make it.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	12-3	+	+	99.647	65.590	38.733	24.130
GB	14-1	+	+	+	68.894	35.482	20.893
NE	12-3	+	+	+	59.418	30.855	13.809
NO	11-3	91.018	+	62.895	24.803	11.992	6.182
PIT	11-4	28.975	+	87.914	44.707	23.348	10.296
BAL	11-4	71.025	+	94.953	49.687	25.331	11.007
HOU	10-5	+	+	69.967	34.409	17.094	7.359
DET	10-5	-	+	57.840	19.198	7.064	3.015
ATL	9-5	8.982	+	41.952	12.656	4.280	1.669
DAL	8-7	62.259	62.259	26.182	6.833	2.031	0.709
CIN	9-6	-	50.643	16.998	5.457	1.852	0.517
NYJ	8-7	-	17.680	5.431	1.602	0.498	0.127
TEN	8-7	-	14.229	4.188	1.184	0.352	0.086
NYG	8-7	37.741	37.741	11.484	2.027	0.418	0.103
OAK	8-7	12.821	30.268	5.854	1.096	0.223	0.036
DEN	8-7	87.179	87.179	14.696	2.440	0.447	0.063

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)

First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)

First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)

First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)