Green Bay eliminated Chicago last night and gained some ground on San Francisco, but they're still not my Superbowl favorites. Tonight's game is somewhat meaningless, except for seeding purposes, as you can see New Orleans and Atlanta are already in the playoffs. Atlanta can still win the NFC South and get a home playoff game, so they at least have something to play for.
For Dallas and New York's winner take all next week, I show a 62% chance of a Cowboys win. I'm glad to see no 7-9 teams will make the playoffs this year, and in fact the only 8-8 will Denver if they and Oakland both lose next week, as all of the other 8-7 teams need a win (and help) to make it.
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)