Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 14, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

Pittsburgh's strength ranking moved up two slots above New England and New Orleans, but still just below division rival Baltimore.  Despite now being up a half game on Baltimore, Pittsburgh still only holds a 30.5% chance of winning the AFC North.  Cleveland is officially eliminated from the AFC playoffs.  Since only the AFC North played yesterday, I guess I should cover the Bengals too.  They've outdone themselves this year, winning more than the strength formula says they should, but being in a division with Pittsburgh and Baltimore is going to make it very hard for them to make the playoffs

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-2	+	+	98.146	62.445	37.124	21.339
HOU	9-3	99.268	99.605	83.835	47.985	26.786	14.036
GB	12-0	+	+	99.975	64.971	32.674	17.313
BAL	9-3	69.474	99.743	90.652	51.367	26.447	13.141
PIT	10-3	30.523	99.981	80.557	40.455	20.060	9.570
NE	9-3	98.880	99.644	84.978	42.741	21.230	10.054
NO	9-3	95.464	99.824	64.559	27.352	13.853	6.752
CHI	7-5	-	70.851	33.505	11.769	4.470	1.746
DET	7-5	-	57.999	28.655	10.010	3.785	1.478
DAL	7-5	84.874	87.210	42.684	13.977	5.024	1.871
MIA	4-8	-	0.005	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
NYJ	7-5	1.109	46.146	16.411	5.626	2.019	0.687
ATL	7-5	4.536	63.984	25.665	7.960	2.696	0.936
TEN	7-5	0.732	29.796	10.114	3.372	1.176	0.385
CIN	7-5	0.003	17.929	5.950	1.933	0.651	0.207
SD	5-7	2.038	2.519	0.756	0.219	0.066	0.019
PHI	4-8	0.502	0.532	0.203	0.050	0.013	0.004
BUF	5-7	0.011	0.106	0.030	0.007	0.002	0.000
NYG	6-6	14.615	16.024	5.638	1.257	0.311	0.080
CAR	4-8	-	0.012	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	7-5	33.761	38.536	9.938	2.397	0.605	0.145
SEA	5-7	-	2.324	0.646	0.141	0.034	0.008
DEN	7-5	62.051	63.833	16.486	3.860	0.953	0.223
ARI	5-7	-	1.128	0.297	0.063	0.015	0.004
WAS	4-8	0.009	0.081	0.018	0.003	0.001	0.000
MIN	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-8	-	0.031	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	5-7	2.150	2.156	0.291	0.038	0.005	0.001
IND	0-12	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)