Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 14, Final

Green Bay over Baltimore

Green Bay does in fact have a first round bye, as the worst case scenario for them would be going 13-3 along with SF and NO, and they get at least 2nd in the tiebreaker scenarios. Baltimore is on the cusp of a playoff berth, with only about a 1 in 50,000 chance of missing the playoffs.  Pittsburgh and New England are not far behind, either.  And, on the hot story of the moment, Tim Tebow and the Broncos are now over 90% likely to make the playoffs.

On the other end, if I had my way, the #1 2012 draft pick would go to the Rams, because they're the worst team statistically again.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3	+	+	91.764	56.687	31.817	17.855
GB	13-0	+	+	+	70.014	38.117	21.280
HOU	10-3	+	+	84.728	48.289	26.311	13.461
BAL	10-3	75.486	99.998	92.166	54.650	29.545	15.092
NO	10-3	94.856	+	73.705	33.025	16.113	7.819
NE	10-3	99.534	99.962	83.805	42.018	20.430	9.474
PIT	10-3	24.514	99.995	78.198	36.852	17.594	8.025
NYJ	8-5	0.466	71.758	28.216	10.470	4.142	1.529
DET	8-5	-	78.524	40.255	13.348	4.997	1.912
CHI	7-6	-	31.085	13.527	4.330	1.624	0.604
DAL	7-6	61.814	64.597	30.563	9.155	3.054	1.062
ATL	8-5	5.144	78.981	34.007	10.015	3.441	1.189
TEN	7-6	-	13.247	4.184	1.261	0.415	0.125
CIN	7-6	-	5.943	1.923	0.595	0.187	0.056
MIA	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	5-8	2.287	2.319	0.956	0.239	0.067	0.020
SD	6-7	0.700	2.210	0.669	0.194	0.058	0.016
SEA	6-7	-	3.533	0.946	0.207	0.058	0.015
NYG	7-6	35.900	36.868	13.203	2.776	0.663	0.166
BUF	5-8	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-5	89.067	90.146	22.614	5.011	1.183	0.263
ARI	6-7	-	4.092	1.074	0.204	0.048	0.011
CAR	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-6	10.013	16.521	3.474	0.657	0.134	0.026
WAS	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	2-11	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	5-8	0.221	0.221	0.024	0.002	0.000	0.000
IND	0-13	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-11	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)