Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 13, Final

San Francisco over Houston

Not a lot to say this week.  2 NFC teams are in, 2 teams from each conference are out.  In a week or so I'll stop showing the eliminated teams, as they're irrelevant to the conversation.  Also, notice how Denver is way down the list despite being 7-5? That's because their actual strength is very low, so they've won more games than they "should".  In a nutshell, they're lucky, in the same way San Francisco is unluckier than Green Bay, being a better team but with a worse record.  We'll see how all this plays out in the coming weeks.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-2	+	+	98.254	62.540	37.178	21.572
HOU	9-3	99.269	99.611	84.260	49.111	27.886	14.611
GB	12-0	+	+	99.975	64.969	32.671	17.494
BAL	9-3	75.725	99.724	91.475	53.452	27.856	13.839
NE	9-3	98.882	99.646	85.161	43.774	22.094	10.461
NO	9-3	95.466	99.824	64.432	27.279	13.813	6.811
PIT	9-3	24.255	99.735	76.307	35.340	16.325	7.228
CHI	7-5	-	70.860	33.520	11.768	4.468	1.770
DET	7-5	-	58.004	28.664	10.007	3.783	1.498
DAL	7-5	84.886	87.225	42.680	13.966	5.019	1.897
MIA	4-8	-	0.005	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
NYJ	7-5	1.108	45.718	16.556	5.714	2.104	0.716
ATL	7-5	4.534	64.011	25.681	7.960	2.695	0.950
TEN	7-5	0.731	30.067	10.339	3.476	1.245	0.408
CIN	7-5	0.020	18.303	6.163	2.028	0.701	0.222
SD	5-7	2.037	2.519	0.801	0.235	0.072	0.020
PHI	4-8	0.501	0.532	0.203	0.050	0.013	0.004
BUF	5-7	0.011	0.108	0.030	0.008	0.002	0.001
NYG	6-6	14.604	16.014	5.633	1.255	0.310	0.082
CAR	4-8	-	0.012	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	7-5	33.760	38.560	10.727	2.606	0.663	0.159
SEA	5-7	-	2.319	0.645	0.141	0.034	0.008
DEN	7-5	62.056	63.852	17.856	4.214	1.047	0.245
ARI	5-7	-	1.088	0.286	0.061	0.014	0.004
WAS	4-8	0.009	0.081	0.018	0.003	0.001	0.000
MIN	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-
TB	4-8	-	0.031	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	5-7	2.147	2.154	0.322	0.042	0.006	0.001
IND	0-12	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 12, Sunday)