Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Thursday

San Francisco over New England

I figured Thursday night would barely be worth mentioning, but then Indianapolis went and pulled another upset.  Because the performance of a team in my system is barely made worse by a close loss than a close win, a large part of Houston's lost standings must be due to the hit in the standings they took.  A win last night would have kept them in the hunt for a first round bye, but that will be a tough path now.

Also, the Colts appear to also be bad at being bad, and that #1 pick is teetering on slipping away to the Rams.  That'd give me lots to think about this offseason.

I've removed the teams that can't make the playoffs from my table below, because there wasn't much information in it for them, except for records and relative strengths.  Although it is a little interesting to see that while KC is still alive, they are the 3rd worst team in the league.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-3	+	+	96.701	61.893	37.314	23.550
GB	13-1	+	+	+	67.940	34.049	19.888
NO	11-3	92.707	+	68.768	28.831	14.744	7.955
NE	11-3	+	+	99.846	60.903	33.143	15.238
HOU	10-5	+	+	67.602	35.390	18.786	8.479
BAL	10-4	66.049	+	91.780	50.468	25.884	11.313
PIT	10-4	33.951	+	81.605	37.027	17.047	6.664
ATL	9-5	7.293	96.309	42.826	13.824	4.900	2.028
DET	9-5	-	88.141	41.335	12.980	4.364	1.753
DAL	8-6	83.788	83.861	40.271	12.212	4.018	1.585
PHI	6-8	6.351	6.351	2.778	0.745	0.218	0.077
NYJ	8-6	-	51.761	18.406	6.112	2.270	0.667
SD	7-7	4.607	18.894	6.767	2.195	0.781	0.223
CIN	8-6	-	18.248	6.288	2.002	0.732	0.208
CHI	7-7	-	6.605	2.090	0.557	0.161	0.055
SEA	7-7	-	4.339	1.124	0.283	0.084	0.027
TEN	7-7	-	5.701	2.120	0.599	0.186	0.047
ARI	7-7	-	4.276	0.965	0.179	0.037	0.009
NYG	7-7	9.861	10.118	3.142	0.557	0.110	0.027
DEN	8-6	84.914	86.532	21.701	4.581	1.019	0.182
OAK	7-7	6.939	15.324	3.465	0.681	0.149	0.025
KC	6-8	3.540	3.540	0.419	0.043	0.005	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)