Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Green Bay


What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

In week 1, the top teams are the ones with the biggest point differential, which could simply be a function of playing one very bad team. New England won 33-3. They might be the strongest team, or Pittsburgh might be the weakest team. Or both could be true. Pittsburgh avoids being lowest on the list because of a currently weak division, 1-3 in aggregate. Also, I only show 3 decimal places here, but with a few more New England has the higher strength by just a little bit over Baltimore, who won 59-10, and is the AFC favorite for now, just like in week 1 last year. Also like week 1 last year, we have a tie. I really don't like ties that much, because some of the other hastily coded numbers I output for my own use assume a whole number of wins and losses summing to 16. But, Arizona and Detroit have uglied the charts just like Cleveland and Pittsburgh last year.

Also, because I know you're going through my post history, you'll see that the week 1 leader always has a .530 or .531. Why is that? New England, to 5 decimal places, is .53121. The highest possible in my system after one week is .53125, which is 1/16 of the way from .500 to a perfect 1.000, and is achievable only by a shutout, but by any score by the winning team. That's because the strengths are regressed back to .500 a lot at the beginning of the year, so that something like a 3-0 win doesn't result in a team that appears completely dominant.

Anyway, things are mostly even as usual, with a few outliers. Chicago is the rare team that is below 1% likely to win after just the first week. It's not unprecedented, but it doesn't happen all that often. Buffalo 2018 and New York Giants 2017 were both listed at 0.97%, and they wound up 6-10 and 3-13, respectively. Don't hold out much hope for Chicago, is what I'm saying.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	1-0	0.531	49.81	61.02	44.14	23.13	12.08	6.31
TEN	1-0	0.530	47.22	59.89	43.45	22.70	11.82	6.14
NE	1-0	0.531	41.56	57.90	42.05	22.07	11.52	6.02
GB	1-0	0.530	36.72	53.01	37.92	19.89	10.43	5.40
DAL	1-0	0.525	40.61	54.29	38.45	19.95	10.34	5.30
MIN	1-0	0.527	35.07	52.19	37.19	19.40	10.10	5.22
SF	1-0	0.523	30.93	50.26	35.66	18.45	9.50	4.87
OAK	1-0	0.517	31.37	50.53	35.08	17.84	9.04	4.61
KC	1-0	0.518	29.71	49.22	34.17	17.42	8.87	4.51
LAC	1-0	0.510	29.26	48.68	33.43	16.72	8.36	4.19
PHI	1-0	0.508	35.09	48.94	33.35	16.68	8.34	4.14
NO	1-0	0.503	42.59	51.20	34.33	16.92	8.33	4.10
BUF	1-0	0.503	32.59	48.74	33.07	16.27	8.00	3.96
LAR	1-0	0.505	26.20	44.90	30.69	15.27	7.57	3.73
SEA	1-0	0.502	24.77	42.43	28.68	14.17	7.00	3.44
ARI	0-0-1	0.500	18.10	33.72	21.98	10.80	5.30	2.59
DET	0-0-1	0.500	19.73	33.11	21.38	10.52	5.19	2.53
CIN	0-1	0.498	20.45	30.73	19.13	9.30	4.52	2.20
HOU	0-1	0.497	18.48	28.83	17.97	8.72	4.25	2.07
CAR	0-1	0.495	21.73	28.77	17.44	8.46	4.10	1.99
NYJ	0-1	0.497	14.32	26.46	16.35	7.96	3.87	1.90
IND	0-1	0.490	18.19	27.56	16.71	8.00	3.83	1.85
WAS	0-1	0.492	13.32	23.05	14.03	6.78	3.28	1.58
JAC	0-1	0.482	16.11	24.69	14.65	6.89	3.25	1.55
TB	0-1	0.477	18.38	24.63	14.31	6.68	3.11	1.45
DEN	0-1	0.483	9.66	21.09	12.57	5.93	2.80	1.33
ATL	0-1	0.473	17.31	23.09	13.30	6.16	2.84	1.32
CLE	0-1	0.470	15.13	22.32	12.84	5.89	2.70	1.25
PIT	0-1	0.469	14.61	22.00	12.62	5.77	2.64	1.22
NYG	0-1	0.475	10.99	19.49	11.41	5.31	2.47	1.15
MIA	0-1	0.469	11.53	20.32	11.76	5.39	2.47	1.13
CHI	0-1	0.470	8.49	16.94	9.87	4.56	2.10	0.97

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

I'm a day late due to a Sunday game in Division II. In the future I'll just fold those games into the next week's rankings. But I didn't want to leave out the powerhouses of Florida Tech and Savannah State.

After just 2 weeks, we've got enough separation between each team that there are only a handful of ties in the 130-team field. Texas Tech is #1, but they have a very tenuous hold on the spot. The top 15 teams each have cumulative opponent records of 2-2, but Texas Tech's opponents have beaten slightly higher ranked teams. The wins and losses of the top teams' FCS opponents, and opponents' opponents, etc., can easily flip the ordering around early in the season, so Texas Tech has to be happy that Montana State beat Southeast Missouri State, who beat Southern Illinois, who beat UMass.

There are 52 undefeated teams remaining, mostly 2-0 but 8 teams are taking an early bye week sitting at 1-0.

I didn't mention Missouri last week, but I'm still watching them. They lost pretty unexpectedly to Wyoming to just destroy any illusions their fans had of a national title chance, but came back strong against West Virginia this week. I've got them at #46, the best 1-1 team around!

1	Texas Tech	2-0
2	LSU	2-0
3	SMU	2-0
4	Michigan State	2-0
5	Boise State	2-0
6	Boston College	2-0
7	Utah	2-0
8	Arizona State	2-0
9	Auburn	2-0
10	Michigan	2-0
11	Mississippi State	2-0
12	California	2-0
13	Colorado	2-0
14	Virginia	2-0
15	Iowa	2-0
16	Kentucky	2-0
17	Alabama	2-0
18	Hawai'i	2-0
19	Oklahoma	2-0
20	Clemson	2-0
21	Penn State	2-0
22	Appalachian State	2-0
23	Wyoming	2-0
24	Memphis	2-0
25	Kansas State	2-0
26	Baylor	2-0
27	Wake Forest	2-0
T-28	Minnesota	2-0
T-28	USC	2-0
30	Oklahoma State	2-0
31	UAB	2-0
32	Ohio State	2-0
33	Illinois	2-0
34	Florida	2-0
35	Maryland	2-0
36	NC State	2-0
37	North Carolina	2-0
38	UCF	2-0
39	Wisconsin	2-0
40	San Diego State	2-0
41	Georgia	2-0
42	Georgia State	2-0
43	Indiana	2-0
44	Washington State	2-0
45	TCU	1-0
46	Missouri	1-1
47	Notre Dame	1-0
48	Georgia Southern	1-1
49	Virginia Tech	1-1
50	Northern Illinois	1-1
51	Oregon	1-1
52	Duke	1-1
53	Eastern Michigan	1-1
54	Ole Miss	1-1
T-55	Navy	1-0
T-55	New Mexico	1-0
T-55	Troy	1-0
58	UTEP	1-1
59	North Texas	1-1
60	Marshall	1-1
61	West Virginia	1-1
62	Kent State	1-1
63	Tulsa	1-1
64	Iowa State	1-0
65	Southern Mississippi	1-1
66	Western Michigan	1-1
67	Texas	1-1
T-68	Washington	1-1
T-68	Arkansas State	1-1
70	Middle Tennessee	1-1
71	Florida State	1-1
72	Pittsburgh	1-1
73	Arizona	1-1
74	Miami (OH)	1-1
75	Nebraska	1-1
76	Houston	1-1
77	UTSA	1-1
78	Utah State	1-1
79	Central Michigan	1-1
80	Louisville	1-1
81	Old Dominion	1-1
T-82	Nevada	1-1
T-82	Arkansas	1-1
84	Coastal Carolina	1-1
85	Army	1-1
86	Air Force	1-0
87	Bowling Green	1-1
88	Texas A&M	1-1
89	BYU	1-1
90	Stanford	1-1
91	Georgia Tech	1-1
92	Tulane	1-1
93	Temple	1-0
94	Louisiana	1-1
95	Colorado State	1-1
96	Cincinnati	1-1
97	Buffalo	1-1
98	Western Kentucky	1-1
99	Rutgers	1-1
100	Charlotte	1-1
101	UConn	1-1
102	Ball State	1-1
103	Syracuse	1-1
104	East Carolina	1-1
105	South Carolina	1-1
106	San Jose State	1-1
107	Ohio	1-1
108	South Alabama	1-1
T-109	UNLV	1-1
T-109	Louisiana Tech	1-1
111	UL Monroe	1-1
112	Purdue	1-1
113	Kansas	1-1
114	Toledo	0-1
115	Oregon State	0-2
116	Fresno State	0-2
T-117	Akron	0-2
T-117	New Mexico State	0-2
119	Florida Atlantic	0-2
120	Miami	0-2
121	Northwestern	0-1
122	Rice	0-2
123	Texas State	0-2
124	South Florida	0-2
125	Tennessee	0-2
126	UCLA	0-2
127	Vanderbilt	0-2
128	Florida International	0-2
129	Liberty	0-2
130	UMass	0-2

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football is back! Week 1 is done, and here's my lazy copy-and-paste job of what I'm doing here.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

I listed some caveats at the end there, but despite 4 teams playing over a week ago, all the FBS teams have played exactly 1 game after week 1. Last year had 129 teams, with Liberty in the midst of transitioning to full eligibility. They are there now, and we've got 130 teams. I think some rules may have changed this year, though I haven't been able to find confirmation, because the only Division II or III games were ones against FCS teams, which was only 8 total games, so they are mostly all starting next week.

Onto the fairly pointless rankings of Week 1. I want to point out that the ordering here is not significant; Florida is exactly tied with all 82 other #1 teams. Air Force is lowest ranked 1-0 team at #84 because they beat Samford, one of the two teams that has actually played 2 games, and happens to be 0-2.

1	Florida	1-0
1	Hawai'i	1-0
1	Clemson	1-0
1	Texas A&M	1-0
1	Utah	1-0
1	UCF	1-0
1	Cincinnati	1-0
1	UConn	1-0
1	Bowling Green	1-0
1	Buffalo	1-0
1	Charlotte	1-0
1	Tulane	1-0
1	UAB	1-0
1	Central Michigan	1-0
1	Minnesota	1-0
1	Arizona State	1-0
1	San Jose State	1-0
1	Michigan State	1-0
1	Wisconsin	1-0
1	Army	1-0
1	Rutgers	1-0
1	Wake Forest	1-0
1	Nevada	1-0
1	Colorado	1-0
1	Oklahoma State	1-0
1	Alabama	1-0
1	Georgia	1-0
1	Ohio State	1-0
1	LSU	1-0
1	Michigan	1-0
1	Texas	1-0
1	Auburn	1-0
1	Washington	1-0
1	Penn State	1-0
1	Iowa	1-0
1	Iowa State	1-0
1	Syracuse	1-0
1	Washington State	1-0
1	Nebraska	1-0
1	Stanford	1-0
1	Illinois	1-0
1	Indiana	1-0
1	Boise State	1-0
1	NC State	1-0
1	Kansas	1-0
1	Kentucky	1-0
1	Memphis	1-0
1	Mississippi State	1-0
1	Maryland	1-0
1	West Virginia	1-0
1	Ohio	1-0
1	Temple	1-0
1	Navy	1-0
1	Eastern Michigan	1-0
1	North Carolina	1-0
1	Georgia State	1-0
1	Appalachian State	1-0
1	Arkansas	1-0
1	Texas Tech	1-0
1	Boston College	1-0
1	New Mexico	1-0
1	UTSA	1-0
1	Troy	1-0
1	California	1-0
1	Marshall	1-0
1	Old Dominion	1-0
1	Southern Mississippi	1-0
1	Northern Illinois	1-0
1	Western Michigan	1-0
1	SMU	1-0
1	Kansas State	1-0
1	Baylor	1-0
1	Wyoming	1-0
1	Virginia	1-0
1	North Texas	1-0
1	UTEP	1-0
1	TCU	1-0
1	UL Monroe	1-0
1	San Diego State	1-0
1	UNLV	1-0
1	USC	1-0
1	Oklahoma	1-0
1	Notre Dame	1-0
84	Air Force	1-0
85	Miami	0-1
85	Arizona	0-1
85	Georgia Tech	0-1
85	Texas State	0-1
85	BYU	0-1
85	UCLA	0-1
85	Western Kentucky	0-1
85	Florida International	0-1
85	Kent State	0-1
85	Tulsa	0-1
85	South Florida	0-1
85	Rice	0-1
85	UMass	0-1
85	Utah State	0-1
85	Purdue	0-1
85	Colorado State	0-1
85	Oregon State	0-1
85	Duke	0-1
85	Vanderbilt	0-1
85	Florida Atlantic	0-1
85	Georgia Southern	0-1
85	Middle Tennessee	0-1
85	Louisiana Tech	0-1
85	Oregon	0-1
85	Miami (OH)	0-1
85	Liberty	0-1
85	New Mexico State	0-1
85	South Alabama	0-1
85	Northwestern	0-1
85	Akron	0-1
85	Ball State	0-1
85	Florida State	0-1
85	East Carolina	0-1
85	Toledo	0-1
85	Ole Miss	0-1
85	Louisiana	0-1
85	Coastal Carolina	0-1
85	South Carolina	0-1
85	Tennessee	0-1
85	Virginia Tech	0-1
85	Arkansas State	0-1
85	Missouri	0-1
85	Pittsburgh	0-1
85	Fresno State	0-1
85	Houston	0-1
85	Louisville	0-1

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 10

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 3-3 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
BOS	0.592	59.1
STL	0.551	40.9

We're tied 3-3 and the whole thing comes down to one final game in Boston. I'm hoping St. Louis can make it more of a game than they did in game 6, and even moreso of course I'm hoping they will win.

I've been reading up on modeling NHL games, and the consensus seems to be that overtime is almost random, shaded just slightly toward the team that was favored to win the game. That's because the initial odds consider the chances of one team scoring more than the other over the course of 60 minutes, but overtime could be considered like a bunch of 1-second games, which of course would almost always finish in ties, but will eventually result in a goal for one side or the other. That's a long-winded way of pointing out that while the chances are 59.1% for Boston now, they slide ever-closer to 50% the later in the game it gets with a tied score.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 7

St. Louis over Boston

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 2-3 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
STL	0.551	70.9
BOS	0.592	29.1

Boston never had a lead in game 5, but the game was close the whole time, tied until the first minute of the second period, and only about 3 minutes of time when St. Louis was up by 2. I thought Boston looked like the stronger team, and they got many more shots on goal, but in the end St. Louis won by a goal.

Bonus stats, some of which are redundant if you really think about it. For example, the odds of STL winning in 6 are the inverse of a game 7 being necessary.

Game 7	49.2
BOS in 7	29.1
STL in 6	50.8
STL in 7	20.1

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 4

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 2-2 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
BOS	0.592	58.7
STL	0.551	41.3

St. Louis scored in the first minute of the game and seemed poised to dominate the game, but it was tied 1-1 and 2-2 before they took the lead for good with 10 minutes to go. They'll get 2 days off and Game 5 will be Thursday, and of course with a 2-2 tie we'll at least have 6 games, with that one falling on Sunday

Bonus stats!

Game 7	50.1
BOS in 6	29.1
BOS in 7	29.6
STL in 6	20.8
STL in 7	20.5

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 2

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 2-1 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
BOS	0.592	74.8
STL	0.551	25.2

Game 3 was a little ugly, with a final score of 7-2. It was 5-2 when St. Louis pulled the goalie and gave up an empty net goal, which you tend to ignore when evaluating a game, but then Boston scored another one on a power play, so it kind of feels like they all count. Either way, it's just one loss, so everything could turn around in game 4.

Bonus stats!

Game 6	70.9
Game 7	35.7
BOS in 5	29.1
BOS in 6	24.7
BOS in 7	21.1
STL in 6	10.6
STL in 7	14.6

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 30

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 1-1 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
BOS	0.592	55.9
STL	0.551	44.1

St. Louis has finally won a game in the Stanley Cup Final, after going 0 for their first 13. The series is tied, The series is tied, and home ice advantage now belongs to St. Louis, but Boston is still slightly favored. Since I bothered to calculate the chances of all these things below, I might as well show them too.

Game 6	75.1
Game 7	37.6
BOS in 4	0
BOS in 5	14.3
BOS in 6	19.4
BOS in 7	22.2
STL in 4	0
STL in 5	10.6
STL in 6	18.1
STL in 7	15.4

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 28

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 1-0 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
BOS	0.592	73.2
STL	0.551	26.8

St. Louis took a 2-0 lead in game 1, but allowed 3 unanswered goals plus another on an empty net to lose 4-2. It'll be an uphill climb, but they still have a better than 1-in-4 chance to win the cup. Now that we're down to 1 series, I ran a few other numbers I thought might be interesting, partially motivated by trying to figure out my plans for next Sunday.

Chances of...
A sweep: 14.3%
At least 5 games: 85.7%
At least 6 games: 58.1%
All 7 games: 29.2%

May Card Show Autograph

May 2018, that is. I'm going to get caught up on everything I want to post one of these days; at least I keep telling myself that. Anyway, today's autograph is Lindy McDaniel.

Lindy McDaniel
#41

Lindy played for the Cardinals from 1955-1962, starting at the age of 19. He had his best season in 1960, earning a Save in one of the 2 All-Star games, and a Cy Young vote, finishing third. He continued with other teams all the way through 1975, his age 39 season.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 22

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 0-0 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
BOS	0.592	60.6
STL	0.551	39.4

I never felt like this day would come, but St. Louis is in the Stanley Cup Final. They're playing a stronger team and don't have home ice, but a 60/40 chance really isn't all that bad. They'll have 5 off days to recuperate, compared against Boston's 10, with the series starting on Monday night.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 20

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 3-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	60.6
STL	0.551	75.3	29.7
SJS	0.551	24.7	9.7

St. Louis won 5-0 to go up 3-2 in the series. They're now just about 75% likely to make the final. That's because they'll be approximately 50% likely to win in game 6, and the remaining 25% comes from their roughly 50% chance to win game 7 combined with the 50% chance of losing game 6. The series resumes Tuesday back in St. Louis.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 18

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 2-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	60.6
SJS	0.551	52.5	20.7
STL	0.551	47.5	18.7

The Western Conference finals are back to even, but unlike when it was 1-1, San Jose now has home ice advantage again (1 of the next 2 plus game 7), and so they are favored this time, just like they were at 0-0. A 52.5% advantage is still pretty close though, like flipping an almost-fair coin, or, more exactly, rolling a 40 sided die and having 21 chances to win but 19 chances to lose.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 17

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 1-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	60.6
SJS	0.551	68.9	27.1
STL	0.551	31.1	12.3

Boston finished their 4-0 sweep with a 4-0 win, and now waits for at least 2 more games to be played in the West before the final can be scheduled. Their chances to win will stay right about that 60.6% listed, because their potential opponents have nearly identical strengths and Boston will have home ice advantage, having earned 107 regular season points to the 101 and 99 of San Jose and St. Louis. That Western Conference series resumes tonight.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 16

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 1-2 SJS
CAR 0-3 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	95.8	58.1
SJS	0.551	68.9	27.5
STL	0.551	31.1	12.4
CAR	0.547	4.2	2.0

San Jose took a 2-1 lead with just a little bit of controversy with a goal off an apparent hand pass in overtime. Luckily it wasn't game 7, so that mistake may be forgotten by the time their series is over. Tonight, Boston tries to complete the sweep. If they do, they could finish a full week before the Western Conference champ, giving them an extra 7 days of rest and/or rust before the final.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 15

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 1-1 SJS
CAR 0-3 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	95.8	58.1
STL	0.551	51.9	20.7
SJS	0.551	48.1	19.2
CAR	0.547	4.2	2.1

Boston is up 3-0 and over 95% likely to make it to the final now. That series could end with the Western Conference finals at 2-1, giving a whole lot of rest to Boston. But, we won't get ahead of ourselves; Carolina could still come back and win 4 games in a row. Tonight, St. Louis and San Jose resume and break their 1-1 tie.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 1-1 SJS
CAR 0-2 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	85.5	51.8
STL	0.551	51.9	21.2
SJS	0.551	48.1	19.8
CAR	0.547	14.5	7.1

St. Louis tied the series, and now effectively have home ice advantage in a best of 5 series. That tips things just slightly in their favor, but still pretty close to a coin toss. Tonight, Boston and Carolina play game 3.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 13

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-1 SJS
CAR 0-2 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	85.5	51.8
SJS	0.551	65.7	27.1
STL	0.551	34.3	14.0
CAR	0.547	14.5	7.0

Boston won again, going up 6-0 before allowing 2 goals to make the final score not look so lopsided. But a win's a win, and they are up 2-0, giving them about a 6 in 7 chance of winning the series. Imagine Carolina's 1 in 7 as a little worse than rolling a single die once and needing a six to win. We'll have a game every day at least through Friday, longer if we avoid sweeps, so St. Louis and San Jose resume today.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 12

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-1 SJS
CAR 0-1 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	73.8	44.7
SJS	0.551	65.7	28.1
STL	0.551	34.3	14.4
CAR	0.547	26.2	12.7

San Jose beat St. Louis handily in game 1, which gives about a 2/3 chance of winning the series. Boston and Carolina resume today, and there's not much else to say.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 10

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-0 SJS
CAR 0-1 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	73.8	44.7
SJS	0.551	51.5	22.1
STL	0.551	48.5	20.4
CAR	0.547	26.2	12.8

Boston won game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, and solidified their position as the most favored team. There's an off day today, with games resuming Saturday for the start of the Western Conference finals.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 9

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-0 SJS
CAR 0-0 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	61.4	37.2
SJS	0.551	51.5	22.9
STL	0.551	48.5	21.0
CAR	0.547	38.6	18.9

We're down to 4 teams, and the projections should quit violently moving back and forth, although I guess a back-and-forth series could result in just that.

I was messing around with my program today to investigate how low home ice would need to be in order to make St. Louis the favored team in the West. Their strength is just barely higher than San Jose, but I assume a 55% home ice advantage per game, thus the series favors San Jose at the moment. As it turns out, somewhere between 50.116% and 50.117% is where the home ice advantage flips the series to San Jose.

Even though we just finished one round, the next round starts today - no breaks! Boston takes on Carolina to start things off.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 8

Boston over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	61.4	37.8
STL	0.551	100.0	52.0	22.5
CAR	0.547	100.0	38.6	19.6
SJS	0.551	57.3	29.5	13.1
COL	0.528	42.7	18.5	7.1

With a win in the second overtime, St. Louis won game 7 and became the favorite to win the West, at least for today. San Jose would take that back with a win over Colorado tonight in their game 7. Either way, the conference finals will both be set after tonight.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 7

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-3 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	61.4	38.5
CAR	0.547	100.0	38.6	20.1
SJS	0.551	57.3	31.2	13.8
STL	0.551	58.1	30.2	13.1
COL	0.528	42.7	19.7	7.6
DAL	0.519	41.9	18.9	6.9

Boston closed out their series against Columbus, a result no other team should have wanted based on my strength numbers. Tonight, St. Louis and Dallas play game 7. If St. Louis wins, they'll certainly be the favorite for at least a day, and I think Dallas would too, although their low strength might mean they don't quite make it, I haven't run the numbers.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 6

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 2-3 SJS
DAL 3-3 STL
CBJ 2-3 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	79.0	48.6	30.2
CAR	0.547	100.0	41.0	21.0
SJS	0.551	77.5	42.2	19.4
STL	0.551	58.1	29.2	13.1
DAL	0.519	41.9	18.2	6.9
CBJ	0.553	21.0	10.4	5.4
COL	0.528	22.5	10.4	4.1

St. Louis won to tie their series, but San Jose is still favored for now, so the projection stays stable for once. That seems to be rare this year.

Both Boston and San Jose could win their way to the third round tonight, unless Columbus or Colorado can tie the series and force a game 7.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 5

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 2-3 SJS
DAL 3-2 STL
CBJ 2-3 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	79.0	48.6	30.7
CAR	0.547	100.0	41.0	21.3
SJS	0.551	77.5	43.8	20.1
DAL	0.519	72.0	31.3	11.8
STL	0.551	28.0	14.1	6.3
CBJ	0.553	21.0	10.4	5.5
COL	0.528	22.5	10.9	4.3

Boston and San Jose both won to take their series to 3-2, and to both take over the lead in their conferences, so the projection is completely upended today. There's just one game today, as St. Louis goes to Dallas to try to avoid elimination.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 4

Carolina over Dallas

Round 2
COL 2-2 SJS
DAL 3-2 STL
CBJ 2-2 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CAR	0.547	100.0	43.4	23.0
BOS	0.592	58.4	35.9	22.9
SJS	0.551	56.0	31.6	15.0
DAL	0.519	72.0	32.6	12.6
CBJ	0.553	41.6	20.7	11.1
COL	0.528	44.0	21.3	8.6
STL	0.551	28.0	14.6	6.7

With a a win over St. Louis giving them a 3-2 lead, Dallas is just barely favored to move on and win the West, slightly ahead of San Jose who is currently tied 2-2 with Colorado. Carolina has advanced to the Eastern Conference final, and so is currently the favorite, with Boston and Columbus also tied at 2. Each of those 2-2 series will play today and also have at least one more game Monday.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 3

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 2-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 STL
CBJ 2-2 BOS
CAR 3-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	58.4	35.6	22.4
CAR	0.547	92.4	40.1	20.9
SJS	0.551	56.0	30.5	14.4
STL	0.551	57.2	29.8	13.7
CBJ	0.553	41.6	20.5	10.7
COL	0.528	44.0	20.4	8.2
DAL	0.519	42.8	19.3	7.5
NYI	0.575	7.6	3.8	2.2

3 of the 4 series are now tied at 2-2, making them near tossups. Carolina has a chance to finish a sweep against New York tonight and earn plenty of extra rest before the conference final. Dallas and St. Louis will break their 2-2 tie in the late game, but obviously have at least one more game Sunday.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 2

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 1-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 STL
CBJ 2-1 BOS
CAR 3-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CAR	0.547	92.4	42.4	21.8
SJS	0.551	72.3	39.4	19.2
CBJ	0.553	62.7	30.9	16.0
BOS	0.592	37.3	22.7	14.2
STL	0.551	57.2	29.0	13.8
DAL	0.519	42.8	18.8	7.4
COL	0.528	27.7	12.8	5.3
NYI	0.575	7.6	4.0	2.3

Carolina took a 3-0 lead, and is over 92% likely to win at least 1 of their next up-to-4 games to advance. Dallas tied up the series against St. Louis, so San Jose remains on top of the West.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 1

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 1-2 SJS
DAL 1-2 STL
CBJ 2-1 BOS
CAR 2-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
SJS	0.551	72.3	38.6	18.5
CAR	0.547	79.0	36.3	18.5
STL	0.551	73.4	37.3	17.5
CBJ	0.553	62.7	30.4	15.5
BOS	0.592	37.3	22.4	13.9
NYI	0.575	21.0	10.9	6.4
COL	0.528	27.7	12.5	5.1
DAL	0.519	26.6	11.7	4.6

Last night, Boston was upset by Columbus, and I ran my numbers between games, showing St. Louis's chances went up a little, since they'd face a weaker team in the final on average. But, San Jose also won, which makes St. Louis's path out of the West harder. So it was roughly a wash, moving them from 17.6% to 17.5% in the table. San Jose takes over the lead in the West, and Carolina retains the lead in the East.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 30

Carolina over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-2 STL
CBJ 1-1 BOS
CAR 2-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	55.6	33.4	20.9
CAR	0.547	79.0	34.6	17.9
STL	0.551	73.4	38.4	17.6
SJS	0.551	52.5	28.0	13.1
CBJ	0.553	44.4	21.5	11.2
COL	0.528	47.5	21.5	8.6
NYI	0.575	21.0	10.5	6.1
DAL	0.519	26.6	12.1	4.6

With a 2-1 series lead, St. Louis is now the favorite in the West. I realized that my table itself doesn't capture the projected matchup and winner correctly. Carolina is indeed the most likely team to win in the East, and is weaker than St. Louis, so I initially wrote "St. Louis over Carolina" at the top. However, since I take home ice into account, Carolina would be 50.7% likely to win that series, as both teams have 99 points and (if I have implemented it correctly), Carolina would get home ice advantage based on tiebreakers. Also, annoyingly, Boston is still the overall favorite, despite not being the Eastern conference favorite.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 29

Carolina over San Jose

Round 2
COL 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 STL
CBJ 1-1 BOS
CAR 2-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	55.6	33.4	21.1
CAR	0.547	79.0	34.6	18.1
SJS	0.551	52.5	28.7	13.4
STL	0.551	54.0	28.3	12.9
CBJ	0.553	44.4	21.5	11.4
COL	0.528	47.5	22.1	8.9
DAL	0.519	46.0	20.9	8.0
NYI	0.575	21.0	10.5	6.2

Colorado evened the series against San Jose, but San Jose remains the Western Conference favorite. In the East, the situation is a little odd. Carolina is the most likely team to win the East, slighty above Boston. However, Boston is more likely to be the overall winner. There's just one game today, St. Louis at Dallas, as an extra off day has been inserted into both Eastern Conference series.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 28

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 0-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 STL
CBJ 1-1 BOS
CAR 1-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	55.6	32.8	20.5
SJS	0.551	69.9	38.2	17.6
CAR	0.547	60.3	26.4	13.6
STL	0.551	54.0	27.5	12.4
NYI	0.575	39.7	19.8	11.7
CBJ	0.553	44.4	21.0	10.9
DAL	0.519	46.0	20.3	7.7
COL	0.528	30.1	14.0	5.5

Dallas and Columbus evened both of their series at 1, and we're about as uncertain as we can be at this point. Boston and San Jose are still the favorites to make the final, but it's far from a foregone conclusion. In retrospect, I can see how it might have been more logical to have the Dallas-St. Louis game in the evening and the Boston-Columbus game during the day, especially when I was watching Columbus win the game about 11pm Central time, or midnight Eastern.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 27

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 0-1 SJS
DAL 0-1 STL
CBJ 0-1 BOS
CAR 1-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	72.8	43.0	26.7
SJS	0.551	69.9	37.4	16.8
STL	0.551	71.4	36.4	16.0
CAR	0.547	60.3	25.2	12.8
NYI	0.575	39.7	19.0	11.1
CBJ	0.553	27.2	12.8	6.6
COL	0.528	30.1	13.6	5.3
DAL	0.519	28.6	12.6	4.7

San Jose won to take back the Western Conference lead, and Carolina upset New York to flip the favorite in that series. Everyone in St. Louis is whining about the 2pm start time today for some reason, and tonight Columbus and Boston play as well.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 26

Boston over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 0-0 SJS
DAL 0-1 STL
CBJ 0-1 BOS
CAR 0-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	72.8	42.2	26.3
STL	0.551	71.4	37.1	16.2
NYI	0.575	57.7	27.6	16.2
SJS	0.551	56.6	30.3	13.4
CAR	0.547	42.3	17.6	9.1
COL	0.528	43.4	19.7	7.5
CBJ	0.553	27.2	12.5	6.5
DAL	0.519	28.6	12.9	4.7

Boston and St. Louis won their opening games of round 2, and are now your conference favorites. St. Louis took over the lead from San Jose, while Boston solidified their position. The other two series begin tonight, and for the most part every series will go every other day.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 25

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 0-0 SJS
DAL 0-0 STL
CBJ 0-0 BOS
CAR 0-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	60.2	34.8	21.9
NYI	0.575	57.7	28.5	16.8
SJS	0.551	56.6	30.8	13.8
STL	0.551	58.4	30.4	13.5
CBJ	0.553	39.8	18.4	9.6
CAR	0.547	42.3	18.3	9.5
COL	0.528	43.4	20.1	7.8
DAL	0.519	41.6	18.8	7.0

All the Canadian teams are out, all the Division winners are out, but the playoffs will march on. There were a total of 5 upsets by seed, all the wildcards over all 4 number 1s, plus #3 St. Louis over #2 Winnipeg. Boston and San Jose are still the favorites to make the final, and even though round 1 finished last night, round 2 starts tonight with St. Louis hosting Dallas and Boston hosting Columbus.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 24

Boston over San Jose

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 3-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	60.2	34.7	21.8
NYI	0.575	100.0	55.0	27.2	16.1
SJS	0.551	100.0	56.6	30.8	13.7
STL	0.551	100.0	58.4	30.4	13.5
CBJ	0.553	100.0	39.8	18.3	9.6
COL	0.528	100.0	43.4	20.1	7.8
DAL	0.519	100.0	41.6	18.8	7.0
WSH	0.555	55.8	26.3	11.8	6.5
CAR	0.547	44.2	18.7	8.1	4.2

Boston and San Jose both won their game 7 battles, and are now each the favorite in their conference. New York is dominated by Boston due to a huge strength difference, but San Jose is projected to win based on home ice advantage. In the table above they appear tied with St. Louis in strength, but to more decimal places, St. Louis is ahead .55093 to .55078. that's still a minuscule difference, as, for example one more goal scored by San Jose would have bumped them up to .55249. There's one last game remaining in round 1, game 7 between Carolina and Washington.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 23

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-3 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-3 BOS
CAR 3-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	55.0	28.5	16.9
STL	0.551	100.0	58.4	31.2	14.1
BOS	0.592	57.7	34.7	20.0	12.6
CBJ	0.553	100.0	42.4	19.4	10.3
COL	0.528	100.0	44.5	20.5	8.2
SJS	0.551	56.1	31.8	17.3	7.9
DAL	0.519	100.0	41.6	19.4	7.4
WSH	0.555	55.8	26.3	12.4	6.9
TOR	0.565	42.3	22.9	11.2	6.4
VGK	0.540	43.9	23.8	11.6	4.9
CAR	0.547	44.2	18.7	8.4	4.4

Dallas clinched their series and will face St. Louis in round 2, which boosts St. Louis up a little bit from yesterday, given that Dallas is a weaker team than Nashville, and that they will not have home ice advantage whereas Nashville would have. Carolina tied Washington, to force a game 7 on Wednesday night. The other two game 7s (games 7?) are tonight, with Canada's last hope Toronto looking to stay alive against Boston, and Vegas and San Jose facing off in the West.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 22

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-3 BOS
CAR 2-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	54.1	28.0	16.5
STL	0.551	100.0	55.2	29.5	13.3
BOS	0.592	57.7	34.7	20.0	12.5
CBJ	0.553	100.0	42.4	19.4	10.2
WSH	0.555	76.0	35.8	16.9	9.2
COL	0.528	100.0	44.5	20.1	8.0
SJS	0.551	56.1	31.8	16.9	7.7
TOR	0.565	42.3	22.9	11.2	6.3
DAL	0.519	71.4	29.7	13.8	5.2
VGK	0.540	43.9	23.8	11.4	4.8
NSH	0.557	28.6	15.2	8.3	3.9
CAR	0.547	24.0	10.1	4.5	2.4

Boston and Vegas avoided elimination, extending both of their series to game 7. Nashville and Carolina will try to do the same tonight, both down 3-2.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 21

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-2 SJS
DAL 3-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-2 BOS
CAR 2-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	54.1	28.9	17.1
STL	0.551	100.0	55.2	30.0	13.8
TOR	0.565	72.4	39.3	19.1	10.9
CBJ	0.553	100.0	44.1	20.2	10.7
WSH	0.555	76.0	35.8	17.6	9.6
COL	0.528	100.0	45.2	20.4	8.2
VGK	0.540	74.1	40.2	19.2	8.2
BOS	0.592	27.6	16.6	9.5	6.0
DAL	0.519	71.4	29.7	14.1	5.4
NSH	0.557	28.6	15.2	8.4	4.0
SJS	0.551	25.9	14.6	7.8	3.6
CAR	0.547	24.0	10.1	4.7	2.5

St. Louis played like their early 2019 performance and not their late 2018, so outperformed my projections to move on to the next round. In the same portion of the bracket, Dallas beat Nashville to go up 3-2 for a chance to face St. Louis, and in the East, Washington took a 3-2 lead against Carolina in dominating fashion with a 6-0 win. There are now 4 teams who have advanced, but none of their opponents have yet been determined. I'll be interested to see if the extra rest makes a big difference in the next round. Of course, I'm hoping it does, to give the Blues a better shot.

We're down to 1 Canadian team out of the 3 that made the playoffs, which is just interesting given the history of the NHL. Toronto could advance Sunday, though, against fellow Original Six member Boston, while 1 very new team could clinch against the still relatively new (under 30 years is relatively new) San Jose.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 20

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 NSH
STL 3-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-2 BOS
CAR 2-2 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	55.1	29.5	17.3
TOR	0.565	72.4	39.3	19.3	10.8
CBJ	0.553	100.0	44.1	20.3	10.6
STL	0.551	74.9	38.8	21.1	9.7
NSH	0.557	58.1	30.7	17.1	8.1
COL	0.528	100.0	45.2	19.9	8.0
VGK	0.540	74.1	40.2	18.7	8.0
WSH	0.555	53.7	25.3	12.4	6.7
BOS	0.592	27.6	16.6	9.6	6.0
CAR	0.547	46.3	19.6	9.0	4.6
SJS	0.551	25.9	14.6	7.6	3.6
WPG	0.554	25.1	13.2	7.3	3.4
DAL	0.519	41.9	17.3	8.2	3.2

Colorado beat the stronger Calgary team, weakening the field for St. Louis who becomes even more of a favorite in the West. Colorado, of course, also made a large jump, but aren't quite up to St. Louis' level yet. Toronto beat Boston to take a 3-2 lead in that series. Up on Saturday, St. Louis tries to clinch against Winnipeg, Carolina and Washington, and Dallas and Nashville both play game 5 to break their 2-2 tie.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 19

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 3-1 CGY
VGK 3-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 NSH
STL 3-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 2-2 BOS
CAR 2-2 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	55.1	28.6	16.1
BOS	0.592	56.6	34.1	19.6	11.8
CBJ	0.553	100.0	42.4	19.5	9.8
STL	0.551	74.9	38.8	19.9	9.0
NSH	0.557	58.1	30.7	16.1	7.5
VGK	0.540	74.1	36.4	17.0	7.2
CGY	0.618	22.2	15.1	10.1	6.3
WSH	0.555	53.7	25.3	12.0	6.2
TOR	0.565	43.4	23.5	11.5	6.2
COL	0.528	77.8	35.2	15.5	6.2
CAR	0.547	46.3	19.6	8.8	4.3
SJS	0.551	25.9	13.3	7.0	3.2
WPG	0.554	25.1	13.2	6.8	3.2
DAL	0.519	41.9	17.3	7.7	2.9

With a 3-2 lead, St. Louis has taken over the lead in the West, at almost 20% likely to win it. New York remains in the lead in the East, and there are just 2 more games today. Colorado could clinch against Calgary, and Toronto and Boston will untie their 2-2 series.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 18

New York Islanders over Vegas

Round 1
COL 3-1 CGY
VGK 3-1 SJS
DAL 2-2 NSH
STL 2-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 2-2 BOS
CAR 1-2 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	54.3	28.2	15.9
BOS	0.592	56.6	34.1	19.6	11.8
CBJ	0.553	100.0	42.4	19.4	9.8
VGK	0.540	85.5	42.0	19.6	8.3
WSH	0.555	70.1	33.0	15.6	8.1
NSH	0.557	58.1	30.5	16.1	7.5
WPG	0.554	53.0	27.8	14.5	6.7
CGY	0.618	22.2	15.1	10.1	6.3
TOR	0.565	43.4	23.5	11.5	6.2
COL	0.528	77.8	35.4	15.5	6.2
STL	0.551	47.0	24.4	12.5	5.7
DAL	0.519	41.9	17.3	7.7	2.9
CAR	0.547	29.9	12.7	5.7	2.8
SJS	0.551	14.5	7.5	3.9	1.8

We're getting dangerously close to losing the top seed in the West, with Calgary down 3-1 and with a 22.2% chance of advancing. Vegas is now in the lead, with a 19.6% chance of returning to the final. The Central division portion of the bracket is the most even, with both series at 2-2 reasonably close to 50/50. Vegas can win their series tonight, St. Louis and Winnipeg will untie their series, and Washington and Carolina are only on game 4.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 17

Calgary over New York Islanders

Round 1
COL 2-1 CGY
VGK 3-1 SJS
DAL 1-2 NSH
STL 2-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 2-1 BOS
CAR 1-2 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	54.3	28.8	15.6
CGY	0.618	45.9	31.3	20.7	13.1
CBJ	0.553	100.0	43.7	20.0	9.6
NSH	0.557	74.3	39.0	19.2	9.1
TOR	0.565	64.6	35.0	17.1	8.8
WSH	0.555	70.1	33.0	16.0	8.0
VGK	0.540	85.5	37.4	17.2	7.3
BOS	0.592	35.4	21.3	12.3	7.1
WPG	0.554	53.0	26.9	13.1	6.1
STL	0.551	47.0	23.5	11.3	5.2
COL	0.528	54.1	24.6	10.7	4.3
CAR	0.547	29.9	12.7	5.8	2.7
DAL	0.519	25.7	10.6	4.4	1.7
SJS	0.551	14.5	6.7	3.5	1.6

Tampa Bay did it. They became the first Presidents Trophy winner to get swept out of the first round. Good for them, I guess? Pittsburgh was also swept, and we've got 2 teams into the second round. Oddly, despite Calgary not being favored in their current series, at just 45.9%, and slightly less likely than Vegas to come out of their bracket section in the second round, 37.4% to 31.3%, they are the favorite to win their conference, at 20.7%. Next closest is Nashville at 19.2%. There are a few random extra off-days in the schedule, so there are 3 more games tonight, even though all 4 series that played Monday are still ongoing.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 16

Calgary over New York Islanders

Round 1
COL 2-1 CGY
VGK 2-1 SJS
DAL 1-2 NSH
STL 2-1 WPG
CBJ 3-0 TBL
TOR 2-1 BOS
CAR 1-2 WSH
PIT 0-3 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	94.5	51.4	25.5	13.8
CGY	0.618	45.9	31.1	20.6	12.5
NSH	0.557	74.3	39.2	19.1	8.6
TOR	0.565	64.6	31.9	15.6	8.1
CBJ	0.553	84.1	36.8	16.9	8.0
WSH	0.555	70.1	33.1	15.0	7.4
STL	0.551	68.4	34.2	16.3	7.1
TBL	0.682	15.9	11.9	9.1	6.9
BOS	0.592	35.4	19.5	11.2	6.5
VGK	0.540	67.2	29.4	13.5	5.5
COL	0.528	54.1	24.3	10.6	4.0
SJS	0.551	32.8	15.1	7.8	3.4
WPG	0.554	31.6	16.0	7.7	3.4
CAR	0.547	29.9	12.7	5.4	2.5
DAL	0.519	25.7	10.6	4.4	1.6
PIT	0.562	5.5	2.8	1.3	0.7

The projection stayed the same today, though got a little less certain. New York is in a better position than before with Washington losing, weakening their next average projected opponent. Calgary is still favored, but is down 2-1 in their series, lowering their chances of winning the West from 29.5% to 20.6%.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 15

Calgary over New York Islanders

Round 1
COL 1-1 CGY
VGK 2-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 NSH
STL 2-1 WPG
CBJ 3-0 TBL
TOR 1-1 BOS
CAR 0-2 WSH
PIT 0-3 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CGY	0.618	65.1	44.1	29.5	17.7
NYI	0.575	94.5	50.8	24.8	13.0
BOS	0.592	53.3	29.4	16.9	9.5
WSH	0.555	81.1	38.4	17.0	8.2
CBJ	0.553	84.1	35.9	16.4	7.6
STL	0.551	68.4	35.7	16.0	6.9
TBL	0.682	15.9	11.7	8.9	6.8
NSH	0.557	55.2	29.1	13.4	6.0
TOR	0.565	46.7	23.0	11.2	5.6
VGK	0.540	67.2	26.5	12.4	5.0
WPG	0.554	31.6	16.7	7.6	3.3
SJS	0.551	32.8	13.7	7.2	3.1
COL	0.528	34.9	15.7	6.9	2.6
DAL	0.519	44.8	18.6	7.1	2.6
CAR	0.547	18.9	8.0	3.4	1.5
PIT	0.562	5.5	2.8	1.3	0.6

Tampa Bay, who came into the playoffs with a ridiculously high strength, are now down 0-3 and have lost their position at the top of the East, partially thanks to another team, the New York Islanders, also being up 3-0 in their series. They could be the first President's Trophy winner to be swept in the first round; the previous worst peformances is a 4-1 loss by Vancouver in 2012. In the West, Calgary remains on top but St. Louis is second, despite being 6th overall in cup chances.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 14

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 1-1 CGY
VGK 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 NSH
STL 2-0 WPG
CBJ 2-0 TBL
TOR 1-1 BOS
CAR 0-2 WSH
PIT 0-2 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CGY	0.618	65.1	43.8	29.3	16.6
TBL	0.682	37.8	27.9	21.3	16.1
NYI	0.575	81.8	44.0	19.5	10.2
BOS	0.592	53.3	25.7	14.8	8.3
STL	0.551	82.2	42.9	19.0	7.6
WSH	0.555	81.1	38.7	15.5	7.4
CBJ	0.553	62.2	26.5	12.2	5.6
NSH	0.557	55.2	29.1	13.3	5.5
TOR	0.565	46.7	19.9	9.8	4.9
SJS	0.551	50.2	21.0	11.0	4.5
VGK	0.540	49.8	19.6	9.2	3.4
COL	0.528	34.9	15.6	6.9	2.4
DAL	0.519	44.8	18.6	7.0	2.4
PIT	0.562	18.2	9.3	3.8	1.9
WPG	0.554	17.8	9.4	4.2	1.7
CAR	0.547	18.9	8.1	3.1	1.4

Calgary lost game 2 to tie the series at 1, but remains the most likely team to win the cup, holding off Tampa because they are down 0-2. Nashville and Boston both also tied their respective series, while the defending champions Washington are now up 2-0.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 13

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-1 CGY
VGK 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-0 NSH
STL 2-0 WPG
CBJ 2-0 TBL
TOR 1-0 BOS
CAR 0-1 WSH
PIT 0-2 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CGY	0.618	81.0	54.5	36.7	20.8
TBL	0.682	37.8	28.1	21.6	16.1
NYI	0.575	81.8	44.6	19.9	10.2
STL	0.551	82.2	44.2	18.6	7.5
TOR	0.565	60.4	25.8	12.7	6.2
WSH	0.555	67.2	32.0	13.0	6.1
BOS	0.592	39.6	19.1	11.0	6.0
CBJ	0.553	62.2	27.0	12.5	5.6
SJS	0.551	50.2	19.1	10.1	4.1
NSH	0.557	41.6	22.0	9.5	4.0
VGK	0.540	49.8	17.8	8.4	3.2
DAL	0.519	58.4	24.2	8.7	2.9
CAR	0.547	32.8	14.0	5.4	2.4
PIT	0.562	18.2	9.4	3.9	1.8
WPG	0.554	17.8	9.7	4.1	1.7
COL	0.528	19.0	8.5	3.8	1.3

We've got 1 split series and 3 with a team up 2-0, with St. Louis and Columbus both winning 2 road games. In spite of being behind in the series and only 37.8% likely to win, Tampa Bay is still the most likely team to win the East, because they have a very high strength value due to their goals scored and allowed this year, so in the event they can win this first round, they'll be massively favored in future rounds. New York is creeping up right behind them though, so Sunday's games could have them finally flip.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 12

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-1 CGY
VGK 0-1 SJS
DAL 1-0 NSH
STL 1-0 WPG
CBJ 1-0 TBL
TOR 1-0 BOS
CAR 0-1 WSH
PIT 0-1 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
TBL	0.682	61.3	45.6	35.0	26.1
CGY	0.618	81.0	54.2	36.5	19.2
NYI	0.575	68.2	37.1	14.8	7.5
STL	0.551	65.1	35.0	14.6	5.4
WSH	0.555	67.2	32.3	11.6	5.4
TOR	0.565	60.4	21.4	10.7	5.2
SJS	0.551	67.8	25.8	13.6	5.1
BOS	0.592	39.6	16.1	9.4	5.1
NSH	0.557	41.6	21.9	9.4	3.6
CBJ	0.553	38.7	16.8	7.8	3.5
WPG	0.554	34.9	19.0	8.1	3.0
PIT	0.562	31.8	16.4	6.0	2.8
DAL	0.519	58.4	24.2	8.6	2.6
CAR	0.547	32.8	14.2	4.8	2.1
VGK	0.540	32.2	11.5	5.4	1.9
COL	0.528	19.0	8.4	3.8	1.2

All the first round series have finished game 1. Calgary is now the most likely team to make the final, but they're in the West and Tampa Bay out of the East would be projected to beat them. We'll have the more normal 4 games per day for awhile now, with each team getting just one day off between games.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 11

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-0 CGY
VGK 0-1 SJS
DAL 1-0 NSH
STL 1-0 WPG
CBJ 1-0 TBL
TOR 0-0 BOS
CAR 0-0 WSH
PIT 0-1 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
TBL	0.682	61.3	45.1	34.6	26.1
CGY	0.618	70.7	47.4	31.9	16.8
NYI	0.575	68.2	37.6	14.8	7.7
BOS	0.592	57.6	23.5	13.6	7.6
STL	0.551	65.1	35.0	15.1	5.6
SJS	0.551	67.8	27.4	14.5	5.4
WSH	0.555	53.3	25.6	9.0	4.3
NSH	0.557	41.6	21.9	9.8	3.8
TOR	0.565	42.4	15.0	7.6	3.7
CBJ	0.553	38.7	16.4	7.6	3.5
WPG	0.554	34.9	19.0	8.3	3.1
CAR	0.547	46.7	20.2	6.7	3.0
PIT	0.562	31.8	16.6	6.0	2.9
DAL	0.519	58.4	24.2	8.9	2.7
VGK	0.540	32.2	12.3	5.8	2.0
COL	0.528	29.3	12.9	5.8	1.9

We had 5 games to open the playoffs, and 3 of them were upsets. Dallas and St. Louis's wins were not huge upsets, but Columbus raised their series-winning chances from 21.6% to 38.7% against the overwhelming strength of Tampa Bay. The two close series have flipped favorites, so that the team up 1-0 is now more likely than not to win, but I'd still favor Tampa Bay to overcome their 0-1 deficit over Columbus.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 10

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-0 CGY
VGK 0-0 SJS
DAL 0-0 NSH
STL 0-0 WPG
CBJ 0-0 TBL
TOR 0-0 BOS
CAR 0-0 WSH
PIT 0-0 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
TBL	0.682	78.4	57.7	44.4	33.4
CGY	0.618	70.7	47.6	31.7	15.8
BOS	0.592	57.6	20.3	11.9	6.6
NYI	0.575	54.5	30.0	10.7	5.6
NSH	0.557	59.7	31.4	14.1	5.1
WPG	0.554	52.3	27.4	12.1	4.3
SJS	0.551	54.0	21.8	11.4	4.0
WSH	0.555	53.3	25.8	8.2	3.9
PIT	0.562	45.5	23.8	7.8	3.8
STL	0.551	47.7	24.6	10.7	3.7
TOR	0.565	42.4	12.8	6.5	3.2
CAR	0.547	46.7	20.3	6.1	2.7
VGK	0.540	46.0	17.6	8.2	2.6
CBJ	0.553	21.6	9.2	4.3	1.9
DAL	0.519	40.3	16.6	6.2	1.8
COL	0.528	29.3	13.0	5.7	1.7

It's time to kick off the playoff projections for the NHL. I'm still using the baseball-style model of projection using goals scored and allowed, with a home-ice advantage factored in per game. That works for the playoffs when there are no ties. I've got a couple other ideas for different models I hope to implement one of these years.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Tampa Bay is favored by far, with a +103 goal differential. They were the only team to score over 300 goals, all the way up at 325. On the other end, the only team to allow under 200 was the New York Islanders at 196, but they only scored 228 so they don't rise all the way up the list. But, they may surprise everyone and shut down some of these powerful offenses.