A Great Trade from Card Anathema

Matt at Card Anathema recently contacted me with an offer I couldn't refuse: a whole bunch of Topps Series 1 for a single card he was missing.  I managed to add a few Series 2 off his want list as well.  Here's what he sent me:

You've all seen 2011 Topps by now, so here's one representative sample, and the list

Brendan Ryan in a Movember-appropriate shot.

2011 Topps
5 Joey Votto
8 Julio Borbon
19 Derek Lowe
27 Ben Zobrist
30 Gio Gonzalez
43 Brendan Ryan
53 Arizona Diamondbacks
55 Matt Joyce
72 Jair Jurrjens
73 James McDonald
77 Tim Hudson
99 Ben Revere
102 CC Sabathia
129 Lucas Duda
137 Xavier Nady
140 Brett Anderson
141 Ubaldo Jimenez
145 Freddie Freeman
163 Carlos Pena
169 Chipper Jones
172 Lyle Overbay
175 Brennan Boesch
181 Magglio Ordonez
197 Aaron Hill
207 Angel Pagan
209 Carlos Santana
221 Scott Hairston
226 Jose Guillen
229 Jonathan Sanchez
241 Wandy Rodriguez
250 Carlos Gonzalez
251 Alcides Escobar
252 Michael Saunders
260 Freddy Sanchez
275 Clayton Kershaw
282 Buster Posey
283 Colorado Rockies
291 Juan Gutierrez
320 Michael Young

As if that wasn't enough, he also sent along some 1990 Score for no reason in particular, other than being a good guy.

I actually had to look up and see if I remembered correctly that Gerald Perry was a Cardinal.

1990 Score
37 Lee Smith
43 Gerald Young
57 Frank Tanana
243 Derek Lilliquist
246 Scott Garrelts
249 Gerald Perry
357 Dave LaPoint
363 Mark Carreon
377 Don Aase
533 Curt Young
536 Lance Blankenship

A big thanks to Matt, and go check out Card Anathema!

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 10

Houston over Green Bay

I actually ran my numbers during the MNF game and Green Bay wasn't favored until the final touchdown was scored, so they are very close to San Francisco in strength, enough that a 7 point swing could put the 49ers back on top of the NFC.  Minnesota is eliminated from winning the NFC North.  Even if they can tie Green Bay, they've already lost to them twice.  I'm less clear on how a 3 way tie or 4 way tie could play out, but as far as I can tell Minnesota can't come out on top in any of them.  In the NFC West, I've heard that this is the first week since the 2002 realignment that all 4 teams have won their respective games.

On the AFC side, Houston's convincing win and Baltimore's loss to a lowly NFC West team has put the Texans back on top.  Indianapolis is finally officially out of the playoffs, though again, I'd have to draw out their best-case scenario by hand to prove it for sure

I'm looking forward to the last of the byes this week.  It makes my numbers feel much less quirky, especially when it comes to ranking 7-3 teams against 6-3 teams.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	7-3	94.809	97.230	84.257	53.050	32.315	17.678
GB	9-0	92.889	98.389	96.045	59.718	32.552	18.328
SF	8-1	99.618	99.955	97.968	59.172	32.013	17.867
BAL	6-3	45.872	76.182	62.686	35.099	18.343	9.034
NO	7-3	88.638	95.604	60.436	27.632	13.630	6.920
DET	6-3	4.702	48.681	29.859	13.305	6.296	3.101
NE	6-3	78.261	91.481	70.246	34.404	16.354	7.291
CIN	6-3	21.354	47.873	35.403	17.517	8.314	3.700
CHI	6-3	2.409	51.628	29.502	12.136	5.397	2.506
PIT	7-3	32.736	73.310	55.031	26.463	12.157	5.297
PHI	3-6	9.121	13.377	5.829	2.021	0.772	0.311
ATL	5-4	10.594	50.277	21.628	7.485	2.885	1.164
TEN	5-4	5.031	28.667	13.664	5.529	2.271	0.857
NYJ	5-4	9.449	42.241	20.838	8.234	3.338	1.252
BUF	5-4	12.234	36.223	18.585	7.190	2.839	1.040
NYG	6-3	63.731	73.020	32.485	10.738	3.853	1.477
DAL	4-5	25.375	34.816	14.598	4.721	1.680	0.636
SD	4-5	26.289	27.682	10.855	3.754	1.313	0.431
OAK	5-4	47.618	50.133	19.200	6.233	2.042	0.627
SEA	4-5	0.332	22.293	8.125	2.255	0.703	0.232
MIA	2-7	0.056	0.275	0.097	0.030	0.010	0.003
ARI	3-6	0.050	3.390	1.157	0.310	0.094	0.030
DEN	4-5	19.256	20.795	7.012	2.005	0.587	0.160
CAR	2-7	0.049	0.256	0.082	0.020	0.006	0.002
WAS	3-6	1.774	3.229	0.978	0.226	0.059	0.016
MIN	2-7	-	0.006	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	3-6	0.038	0.197	0.066	0.017	0.005	0.001
JAC	3-6	0.160	0.498	0.142	0.037	0.010	0.002
TB	4-5	0.719	5.055	1.300	0.260	0.060	0.015
KC	4-5	6.837	7.212	1.916	0.437	0.102	0.022
STL	2-7	0.000	0.024	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

Into the home stretch, LSU and Oklahoma State are holding on at #1 and #2.  Oklahoma's idle week drops them from #3 to #8, swapping with Virginia Tech.  Another notable drop was Stanford, from #4 to #11.  On the other end, New Mexico wins and leaves Florida Atlantic as the only winless team and at #120 in the FBS.

1	LSU	10-0
2	Oklahoma State	10-0
3	Virginia Tech	9-1
4	Clemson	9-1
5	Alabama	9-1
6	Houston	10-0
7	Oregon	9-1
8	Oklahoma	8-1
9	Arkansas	9-1
10	Southern Miss	9-1
11	Stanford	9-1
12	Kansas State	8-2
13	Nebraska	8-2
14	Penn State	8-2
15	Michigan	8-2
16	Michigan State	8-2
17	Boise State	8-1
18	South Carolina	8-2
19	TCU	8-2
20	Georgia	8-2
21	USC	8-2
22	Arkansas State	8-2
23	Wisconsin	8-2
24	Notre Dame	7-3
25	West Virginia	7-3
26	Georgia Tech	7-3
27	Rutgers	7-3
28	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-3
29	Cincinnati	7-2
30	Tulsa	7-3
31	Virginia	7-3
32	Florida State	7-3
33	Baylor	6-3
34	North Carolina	6-4
35	Texas	6-3
36	Northern Illinois	7-3
37	Auburn	6-4
38	Washington	6-4
39	Illinois	6-4
40	Toledo	6-4
41	Ohio	7-3
42	Utah	6-4
43	Brigham Young	7-3
44	Wyoming	6-3
45	Iowa	6-4
46	Ohio State	6-4
47	Eastern Michigan	6-4
48	Arizona State	6-4
49	San Diego State	6-3
50	Southern Methodist	6-4
51	California	6-4
52	Texas A&M	5-5
53	Louisiana Tech	6-4
54	Nevada	6-3
55	Miami (FL)	5-5
56	Ball State	6-4
57	South Florida	5-4
58	Missouri	5-5
59	Iowa State	5-4
60	Pittsburgh	5-5
61	Temple	6-4
62	Wake Forest	5-5
62	Texas Tech	5-5
64	North Carolina State	5-5
65	Louisville	5-5
66	Mississippi State	5-5
67	Vanderbilt	5-5
68	Florida	5-5
69	Florida International	6-4
70	Air Force	5-5
71	Syracuse	5-5
72	Purdue	5-5
73	UCLA	5-5
74	Western Michigan	5-5
75	Western Kentucky	5-5
76	Northwestern	5-5
77	UTEP	5-5
78	Tennessee	4-6
79	Marshall	4-6
80	Navy	4-6
81	Kent State	4-6
82	Hawaii	5-5
83	Kentucky	4-6
84	East Carolina	4-6
85	Connecticut	4-5
86	North Texas	4-6
87	Bowling Green	4-6
88	Utah State	4-5
89	Washington State	4-6
90	UCF	4-6
91	Miami (OH)	4-6
92	Rice	3-7
93	New Mexico State	4-6
94	Duke	3-7
95	Boston College	3-7
96	Louisiana-Monroe	3-7
97	Kansas	2-8
98	Fresno State	3-7
99	Maryland	2-8
100	Minnesota	2-8
101	Central Michigan	3-8
102	San Jose State	3-7
103	Army	3-7
104	Arizona	2-8
105	Ole Miss	2-8
106	Colorado State	3-6
107	Oregon State	2-8
108	Buffalo	2-8
109	Colorado	2-9
110	UNLV	2-7
111	Troy	2-7
112	Idaho	2-8
113	Indiana	1-9
114	Middle Tennessee	2-7
115	UAB	2-8
116	New Mexico	1-9
117	Tulane	2-9
118	Memphis	2-8
119	Akron	1-9
120	Florida Atlantic	0-9

A Contest win from The Diamond King

I won a contest at The Diamond King over a month ago.  He was kind enough to offer up some Beat Up Vintage for merely answering a question on his blog. 

1979 Topps

#411 Sisler/Cobb

#415 Brock/Brock - I love that he gets featured twice on 1 card

#430 Dave Parker

1974 Topps

2 Hank Aaron 54-57

4 Hank Aaron 62-65

He sent 2 of each of these!

1973 Topps #400 Gaylord Perry

1972 Topps #37 Carl Yastrzemski

1971 Topps

#180 Al Kaline

#525 Ernie Banks

These were looking pretty rough, so I didn't even pull them out of the sleeve.

1955 Bowman #216 Preacher Roe

Man is this one beat up, but I don't care; it's 56 years old!

1993 Topps - Gold #119 Pedro Munoz

1994 Topps - Black Gold #42 Sammy Sosa

I'm a fan of the Topps Gold and Black Gold, especially from 1992, so these are great additions.

Next up, some Nomars!

2002 Fleer Genuine #93

1999 Upper Deck MVP - Swing Time #S6

1999 Upper Deck HoloGrFX - Starview #S6

1998 Studio #60

I really liked Studio, in fact I have the whole set of 8x10s from 1997

The Vintage was the real prize in the contest, with the Gold and Nomars thrown in since they are some of my favorites.  I really enjoy the 70s cards (and 50s!) because I started collecting in the 90s and don't have a lot of older stuff.  Even though I was a big Nomar fan, my collecting waned around 1999-2000, so those cards nicely fill in some gaps too.

A big thanks to the Diamond King!  And go check out his blog!

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 9

San Francisco over Houston (just barely)

Houston's big win and Baltimore's narrow victory brought the Texans back to the top of the AFC.  Their chanced at the Super Bowl are just .04% greater than Baltimore, largely because they have a less competitive division to try to win.

San Francisco might doze off in a few weeks with no competition behind them either, or they might rest everyone and blast through the playoffs on fresh legs.

Finally, at the end of the chart, you see that Indy still has a chance at making the playoffs, but never made it to the Super Bowl in my 160 million simulations.  This doesn't mean they can't, of course, because once you're in the playoffs, anything could happen.  It just means that, right now, the chances are roughly less than 1 in 160 million.

Have I addressed here yet that I think the Rams could pull some shenanigans and wind up better off? If they could get someone to take on most of Bradford's contract, and wind up drafting a QB such as Luck, they'd probably upgrade for less money thanks to the new rookie pay rules.  Don't get me wrong, I like Sam, but I like winning football better, and there's a mild chance more money might buy us that.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	7-1	99.58	99.87	95.20	56.26	31.20	17.53
DET	6-2	20.93	80.43	56.05	29.69	15.73	8.58
HOU	6-3	95.49	96.29	73.28	42.43	23.56	12.24
BAL	6-2	55.11	86.89	73.67	42.38	23.52	12.19
GB	8-0	77.14	97.21	88.12	48.66	24.64	13.07
NO	6-3	69.19	86.55	52.98	25.50	12.87	6.68
CIN	6-2	33.92	68.55	53.43	27.55	14.03	6.71
BUF	5-3	34.37	63.30	43.84	21.00	9.95	4.48
PIT	6-3	10.88	42.45	28.02	13.06	6.14	2.71
NYJ	5-3	29.85	59.09	38.97	18.00	8.26	3.60
NE	5-3	35.77	65.53	44.02	20.20	9.17	3.96
CHI	5-3	1.93	21.60	11.61	4.74	2.01	0.88
PHI	3-5	14.73	24.95	11.12	4.29	1.74	0.74
ATL	5-3	27.03	62.48	28.67	11.12	4.50	1.92
NYG	6-2	75.41	82.61	41.34	15.50	6.03	2.49
SD	4-4	47.30	48.59	20.34	7.64	2.87	1.03
TEN	4-4	4.25	11.61	4.99	1.83	0.67	0.23
CAR	2-6	0.38	1.60	0.59	0.19	0.06	0.02
MIN	2-6	0.00	0.07	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
OAK	4-4	26.85	28.71	10.62	3.51	1.16	0.37
SEA	3-5	0.33	9.81	3.57	1.07	0.34	0.11
ARI	2-6	0.08	1.55	0.54	0.16	0.05	0.02
DAL	3-5	6.29	10.60	3.60	1.03	0.32	0.10
MIA	1-7	0.02	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
WAS	3-5	3.58	7.26	2.41	0.68	0.20	0.06
DEN	3-5	10.26	11.15	3.66	1.08	0.32	0.09
TB	4-4	3.40	13.40	4.16	1.10	0.31	0.09
CLE	3-5	0.09	0.62	0.21	0.06	0.02	0.00
KC	4-4	15.59	16.76	4.83	1.24	0.32	0.08
JAC	2-6	0.26	0.38	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00
STL	1-7	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
IND	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

LSU holds on to #1 in dramatic fashion with the OT win over Alabama, who drops to #7.  Despite being undefeated, Boise State is still at #10.  Their potential Big East move should improve their opponent quality in the future, but we'll see if they can keep up their yearly win total.  Boise State was one of the teams I was sure the polls were underestimating before I put together my rankings.  As it turns out, I typically rank them lower than the human polls do.

1	LSU	9-0
2	Oklahoma State	9-0
3	Oklahoma	8-1
4	Stanford	9-0
5	Clemson	8-1
6	Houston	9-0
7	Alabama	8-1
8	Virginia Tech	8-1
9	Penn State	8-1
10	Boise State	8-0
11	Oregon	8-1
12	Southern Miss	8-1
13	Arkansas	8-1
14	Kansas State	7-2
15	Nebraska	7-2
16	South Carolina	7-2
17	Michigan	7-2
18	Michigan State	7-2
19	Georgia	7-2
20	USC	7-2
21	TCU	7-2
22	Georgia Tech	7-2
23	Wisconsin	7-2
24	Cincinnati	7-1
25	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-2
26	Arkansas State	7-2
27	Texas	6-2
28	North Carolina	6-4
29	Notre Dame	6-3
30	West Virginia	6-3
31	Auburn	6-3
32	Illinois	6-3
33	Washington	6-3
34	Rutgers	6-3
35	Arizona State	6-3
36	Virginia	6-3
37	Ohio State	6-3
38	Tulsa	6-3
39	Southern Methodist	6-3
40	Iowa	6-3
41	Baylor	5-3
42	Florida State	6-3
43	Miami (FL)	5-4
44	Texas A&M	5-4
44	North Carolina State	5-4
46	Northern Illinois	6-3
47	Brigham Young	6-3
48	Ball State	6-4
49	Toledo	5-4
50	Louisville	5-4
51	Ohio	6-3
52	Iowa State	5-4
53	Texas Tech	5-4
54	Utah	5-4
55	Eastern Michigan	5-4
56	Wake Forest	5-4
57	Syracuse	5-4
58	Wyoming	5-3
59	Mississippi State	5-4
60	Florida	5-4
61	UCLA	5-4
62	San Diego State	5-3
63	Western Michigan	5-4
64	Louisiana Tech	5-4
65	Air Force	5-4
66	California	5-4
67	Nevada	5-3
68	Tennessee	4-5
69	Missouri	4-5
70	Temple	5-4
71	Florida International	5-4
72	Western Kentucky	5-4
73	South Florida	4-4
74	Pittsburgh	4-5
75	Marshall	4-5
76	Vanderbilt	4-5
77	Kentucky	4-5
78	Purdue	4-5
79	Hawaii	5-4
80	East Carolina	4-5
81	Northwestern	4-5
82	Bowling Green	4-5
83	UTEP	4-5
84	Connecticut	4-5
85	Kent State	3-6
86	Navy	3-6
87	Miami (OH)	4-5
88	Rice	3-6
89	UCF	4-5
90	North Texas	3-6
91	Duke	3-6
92	Utah State	3-5
93	Fresno State	3-6
94	Kansas	2-7
95	Central Michigan	3-7
96	San Jose State	3-6
97	Washington State	3-6
98	Arizona	2-7
99	Maryland	2-7
100	Minnesota	2-7
101	Army	3-6
102	New Mexico State	3-6
103	Ole Miss	2-7
104	Louisiana-Monroe	2-7
105	UNLV	2-6
106	Oregon State	2-7
107	Colorado State	3-5
108	Boston College	2-7
109	Buffalo	2-7
110	Troy	2-6
111	Middle Tennessee	2-6
112	Idaho	2-7
113	Memphis	2-7
114	Indiana	1-9
115	Colorado	1-9
116	Tulane	2-8
117	Akron	1-8
118	UAB	1-8
119	Florida Atlantic	0-8
120	New Mexico	0-9

Contest at The Common (Card) Man

The Common (Card) Man is having a contest.  Help him celebrate his 1 year blogging anniversary, or blogiversary for those of you into portmanteaus.  He's a Brewers fan, but we won't hold that against him.  Just go to the contest and guess which Black Glove Leather parallel he pulled from a Jumbo pack of 2011 Topps Update.

Good luck, everyone. (But mostly me)

Help me, help you

Or at least, help Kyle at Juust a bit outside fill his group break.  I've got the Cardinals and Baseball Dad wants the Indians, but as of this writing everybody else is up for grabs.  He's offering up the following boxes for $15 per team, and only $12 for the post-1992 expansion teams - Marlins, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and (Devil) Rays.

2011 - Topps Lineage hobby and Topps Allen & Ginter hobby
2001 - Upper Deck Reserve
1991 - Stadium 1 & 2, Upper Deck jumbos (w/ silver slugger cards), and 1953 Archives
1981 - Donruss

If it fills up, this will be my first paid group break, as Cards on Cards eased me into the game with a free one awhile back.  So go claim your favorite team!

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 8

San Francisco over Baltimore

And we're back to the Week 5 and Week 6 results.  I'm starting to feel more confident in that pick.  We'll see how the next 9 weeks go though.  On the other end, the Colts aren't mathematically out yet, even at 0-8, though I'd need more decimal places to show their chances from here on out.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	6-2	27.48	85.35	62.21	34.21	18.77	10.55
SF	6-1	99.63	99.79	93.84	54.65	29.39	16.34
BAL	5-2	42.64	72.95	58.64	33.54	18.88	9.84
GB	7-0	70.79	96.49	85.35	47.39	24.69	13.38
HOU	5-3	86.72	88.94	59.94	32.32	17.30	8.61
NO	5-3	64.45	77.21	47.37	22.58	11.16	5.75
BUF	5-2	51.62	79.59	62.96	33.48	17.19	8.34
CIN	5-2	29.05	57.37	42.94	22.17	11.37	5.42
PIT	6-2	27.86	61.33	44.50	22.10	10.93	5.05
NE	5-2	38.43	75.40	53.67	26.08	12.36	5.56
PHI	3-4	26.80	42.57	20.99	8.63	3.71	1.69
CHI	4-3	1.73	16.70	9.09	3.75	1.62	0.72
NYJ	4-3	9.96	27.86	16.80	7.56	3.35	1.40
NYG	5-2	49.16	64.34	33.19	12.71	5.00	2.11
SD	4-3	40.45	43.75	20.71	8.39	3.39	1.30
ATL	4-3	21.86	43.00	18.89	6.71	2.48	0.98
DAL	3-4	17.35	29.61	12.82	4.50	1.65	0.65
TEN	4-3	12.87	23.12	11.10	4.40	1.75	0.64
OAK	4-3	33.72	37.56	16.53	6.07	2.23	0.78
CAR	2-6	0.77	1.70	0.64	0.21	0.07	0.03
MIN	2-6	0.00	0.11	0.05	0.01	0.01	0.00
WAS	3-4	6.69	13.70	5.26	1.64	0.53	0.19
ARI	1-6	0.13	1.02	0.37	0.11	0.03	0.01
TB	4-3	12.92	25.03	8.82	2.59	0.81	0.27
CLE	3-4	0.45	1.82	0.79	0.27	0.09	0.03
KC	4-3	23.64	27.28	10.48	3.35	1.07	0.32
SEA	2-5	0.21	3.27	1.09	0.29	0.08	0.02
DEN	2-5	2.19	2.52	0.80	0.23	0.07	0.02
MIA	0-7	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-6	0.42	0.50	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
STL	1-6	0.02	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
IND	0-8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)

Play at the Plate's November Contest

Pick a card, any card!

This one's a simple contest.  Pick the manu-patch Play At The Plate pulled in a blaster of 2011 Topps Update.  The winner gets some miscellaneous cards, which are sometimes my favorite kind.

Go enter, and good luck.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

LSU stays on top in its idle week, but Alabama drops to #6.  Clemson stays at #3 despite the loss, due to its strong schedule.  LSU-Alabama this week will definitely boost the strength for both, with the winner likely taking a strong lead at #1.

In Mizzou news, they gain 15 spots, and A&M loses 9.  At least they'll be able to keep up with 1 team in the future SEC.

1	LSU	8-0
2	Oklahoma State	8-0
3	Clemson	8-1
4	Virginia Tech	8-1
5	Penn State	8-1
6	Alabama	8-0
7	Stanford	8-0
8	Houston	8-0
9	Oklahoma	7-1
10	Nebraska	7-1
11	Boise State	7-0
12	Kansas State	7-1
13	Michigan	7-1
14	South Carolina	7-1
15	Georgia Tech	7-2
16	Oregon	7-1
17	Southern Miss	7-1
18	Arkansas	7-1
19	North Carolina	6-3
20	Michigan State	6-2
21	USC	6-2
22	West Virginia	6-2
23	Georgia	6-2
24	Washington	6-2
25	Auburn	6-3
26	Illinois	6-3
27	Wisconsin	6-2
28	Arizona State	6-2
29	Arkansas State	6-2
29	Louisiana-Lafayette	7-2
31	TCU	6-2
32	Cincinnati	6-1
33	Texas	5-2
34	Toledo	5-3
35	Texas A&M	5-3
36	Notre Dame	5-3
37	Eastern Michigan	5-3
38	Ohio State	5-3
39	Wake Forest	5-3
40	Brigham Young	6-3
41	Syracuse	5-3
42	Southern Methodist	5-3
43	Texas Tech	5-3
44	Virginia	5-3
45	Rutgers	5-3
46	Tulsa	5-3
47	Wyoming	5-2
48	Florida State	5-3
49	Miami (FL)	4-4
50	Western Michigan	5-4
51	Nevada	5-3
52	Florida International	5-3
53	Baylor	4-3
54	Iowa	5-3
55	Northern Illinois	5-3
56	Missouri	4-4
57	North Carolina State	4-4
58	Temple	5-3
59	Utah	4-4
60	Ball State	5-4
61	Iowa State	4-4
62	San Diego State	4-3
63	South Florida	4-3
64	Louisville	4-4
65	Vanderbilt	4-4
66	Ohio	5-3
67	Hawaii	5-3
68	Pittsburgh	4-4
69	Mississippi State	4-4
70	Florida	4-4
71	Marshall	4-5
72	California	4-4
73	UCLA	4-4
74	Louisiana Tech	4-4
75	Air Force	4-4
76	Purdue	4-4
77	UTEP	4-4
78	East Carolina	4-4
79	Tennessee	3-5
80	Bowling Green	4-5
81	Western Kentucky	4-4
82	UCF	4-4
83	Kentucky	3-5
84	Duke	3-5
85	San Jose State	3-5
86	Kansas	2-6
87	North Texas	3-6
88	Fresno State	3-5
89	Central Michigan	3-6
90	Northwestern	3-5
91	Connecticut	3-5
92	Maryland	2-6
93	Miami (OH)	3-5
94	Washington State	3-5
95	Arizona	2-6
96	Navy	2-6
97	Minnesota	2-6
98	Ole Miss	2-6
99	Kent State	2-6
100	Army	3-5
101	New Mexico State	3-5
102	Rice	2-6
103	Boston College	2-6
104	UNLV	2-5
105	Troy	2-5
106	Utah State	2-5
107	Oregon State	2-6
108	Colorado State	3-5
109	Louisiana-Monroe	2-6
110	Middle Tennessee	2-5
111	Buffalo	2-7
112	Colorado	1-8
113	Indiana	1-8
114	Memphis	2-7
115	Tulane	2-7
116	Akron	1-7
117	Idaho	1-7
118	UAB	1-7
119	Florida Atlantic	0-7
120	New Mexico	0-8

eBay Wins #6

I was in a random mood, so I bid a penny on a bunch of "Random 1980-90s baseball card" auctions.  The results weren't bad, actually, at least for a collector of Cardinals.  In all, I won 41 of them.

1988 Score

181 Carmelo Martinez

1990 Fleer

183 Randy Milligan

192 Jay Tibbs

205 Keith Hernandez

241 Gerald Young

324 Jim Gantner

1990 Score

88 Steve Lyons
222 Jesse Barfield
447 Ernest Riles
453 Bob Melvin
467 John Kruk

1990 Topps

135 Dave Magadan

1991 Donruss

384 Norm Charlton

1991 Score

Even for a Junk Wax set, I had to scan all 3 former Cardinals

22 Kevin Gross

81 Lee Smith

82 Dave Martinez

84 Bill Spiers

87 Tracy Jones

112 Mike Heath

115 Barry Jones

125 Jay Buhner

128 Greg Hibbard

130 Mike Greenwell

192 Jeff Robinson

197 Tom Gordon

234 Marquis Grissom

237 Don Carman

241 Larry Walker

257 Steve Buechele

299 Omar Vizquel

322 Mike Harkey

325 Gary Gaetti

328 Frank Tanana

330 Barry Bonds

336 Jeff Schulz

339 Mike Bordick

393 Wade Boggs AS

399 Roger Clemens AS

401 Bobby Thigpen AS

415 Ken Caminiti

418 Bobby Thigpen

All in all, I'm happy with my random assortment for 41 cents.  I seem to have an attachment to the 89-92 years because I started collecting in 1992, so although I know most of them are overproduced, it's a nice cheap way to get nostalgic.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 7

Baltimore over Green Bay

Bye weeks really mess with the stability of my rankings.  Green Bay takes over the NFC lead while San Francisco is idle, even though the SF playoff chances are up to 98.76%. Meanwhile, my Rams are over 40 times more likely to go 0-16 than make the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	4-2	47.02	74.12	59.67	35.02	20.23	10.79
GB	7-0	81.07	97.38	89.20	51.46	27.91	15.64
SF	5-1	97.92	98.76	84.75	47.10	24.79	13.62
NO	5-2	76.52	87.96	63.21	32.97	17.19	9.34
DET	5-2	16.70	73.23	46.81	23.17	11.72	6.18
HOU	4-3	85.76	87.46	57.53	30.67	16.30	8.05
NE	5-1	59.41	85.98	69.88	36.62	18.51	8.81
PIT	5-2	26.68	57.66	39.84	19.80	9.81	4.52
BUF	4-2	29.41	64.13	44.61	22.15	10.78	4.96
CIN	4-2	24.33	49.90	34.52	16.88	8.20	3.70
DAL	3-3	41.02	53.87	28.80	12.16	5.27	2.44
CHI	4-3	2.23	24.80	13.01	5.49	2.43	1.12
NYJ	4-3	11.17	33.18	20.24	9.47	4.36	1.89
NYG	4-2	33.27	47.56	24.30	9.59	3.87	1.68
SD	4-2	58.01	62.61	35.19	15.09	6.47	2.62
WAS	3-3	16.15	27.78	12.86	4.89	1.93	0.82
PHI	2-4	9.57	15.61	6.87	2.59	1.02	0.43
ATL	4-3	14.99	38.91	17.56	6.57	2.54	1.05
CAR	2-5	1.10	3.95	1.56	0.54	0.20	0.08
OAK	4-3	27.63	35.99	17.47	6.72	2.60	0.94
TEN	3-3	11.63	19.30	8.63	3.26	1.24	0.43
CLE	3-3	1.97	6.24	3.05	1.15	0.44	0.15
MIN	1-6	0.00	0.11	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
DEN	2-4	4.59	6.95	2.92	1.05	0.38	0.13
ARI	1-5	0.61	1.75	0.63	0.20	0.07	0.02
SEA	2-4	1.45	7.56	2.81	0.89	0.29	0.10
TB	4-3	7.38	20.71	7.59	2.35	0.77	0.27
KC	3-3	9.76	13.52	5.50	1.83	0.61	0.19
MIA	0-6	0.01	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-5	2.56	2.87	0.90	0.27	0.08	0.02
IND	0-7	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
STL	0-6	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

LSU stays on top with a win.  LSU vs Alabama should have a huge impact in two weeks, with both teams off next week.  On the other end of the rankings, I'm disappointed UAB won, because they were set up to face Florida Atlantic in a few weeks in a battle for #120.

1	LSU	8-0
2	Clemson	8-0
3	Alabama	8-0
4	Oklahoma State	7-0
5	Virginia Tech	7-1
6	Boise State	7-0
7	Penn State	7-1
8	Kansas State	7-0
9	Houston	7-0
10	Stanford	7-0
11	Oklahoma	6-1
12	Nebraska	6-1
13	Michigan	6-1
14	USC	6-1
15	Michigan State	6-1
16	South Carolina	6-1
17	Wisconsin	6-1
18	Oregon	6-1
19	Arkansas	6-1
20	Illinois	6-2
21	Southern Miss	6-1
22	Georgia Tech	6-2
23	Cincinnati	6-1
24	Texas A&M	5-2
25	North Carolina	5-3
26	Toledo	5-3
27	Syracuse	5-2
28	West Virginia	5-2
29	Texas Tech	5-2
30	Georgia	5-2
31	Arizona State	5-2
32	Eastern Michigan	5-3
33	Washington	5-2
34	Southern Methodist	5-2
35	Auburn	5-3
36	Brigham Young	6-2
37	Wake Forest	5-2
38	Louisiana-Lafayette	6-2
39	Arkansas State	5-2
40	Rutgers	5-2
41	TCU	5-2
42	Miami (FL)	4-3
43	Iowa	5-2
44	Temple	5-3
45	Notre Dame	4-3
46	Ball State	5-3
47	Texas	4-2
48	Baylor	4-2
49	North Carolina State	4-3
50	Ohio State	4-3
51	Northern Illinois	5-3
52	South Florida	4-3
53	San Diego State	4-2
54	Vanderbilt	4-3
55	Virginia	4-3
56	Ohio	5-3
57	California	4-3
58	Florida	4-3
59	Wyoming	4-2
60	Florida State	4-3
61	Tulsa	4-3
62	Nevada	4-3
63	Western Michigan	4-4
64	UTEP	4-3
65	Bowling Green	4-4
66	Utah	3-4
67	Purdue	4-3
68	Florida International	4-3
69	Tennessee	3-4
70	Iowa State	3-4
71	Missouri	3-4
72	Hawaii	4-3
73	Pittsburgh	3-4
74	Louisville	3-4
75	Air Force	3-4
76	Marshall	3-5
77	Kentucky	3-4
78	East Carolina	3-4
79	Mississippi State	3-4
80	UCLA	3-4
81	San Jose State	3-4
82	Louisiana Tech	3-4
83	Kansas	2-5
84	Maryland	2-5
85	Duke	3-4
86	Connecticut	3-4
87	Western Kentucky	3-4
88	North Texas	3-5
89	Fresno State	3-5
90	UCF	3-4
91	Ole Miss	2-5
92	Washington State	3-4
93	Arizona	2-5
94	New Mexico State	3-4
95	Navy	2-5
96	Colorado State	3-4
97	Central Michigan	2-6
98	Troy	2-4
99	Rice	2-5
100	Oregon State	2-5
101	Louisiana-Monroe	2-5
102	Northwestern	2-5
103	Buffalo	2-6
104	Utah State	2-5
105	Miami (OH)	2-5
106	Army	2-5
107	Middle Tennessee	2-4
108	Minnesota	1-6
109	Kent State	1-6
110	Indiana	1-7
111	UNLV	1-5
112	Boston College	1-6
113	Akron	1-6
114	Memphis	2-6
115	Colorado	1-7
116	Tulane	2-6
117	Idaho	1-6
118	UAB	1-6
119	New Mexico	0-7
120	Florida Atlantic	0-7

Free Cards from Cards on Cards

I've been holding off on this post while I try to get my scanner to work, but I'm irritated with it, so you get photos with trapezoidal cards!


Free? That's right, Cards on Cards ran a Free Fleer Group Break a while back.  The boxes were 1995 Fleer Update, 1993 Fleer Ultra Series 2, and the1993 Fleer flagship set.  Since it was free, I figured I had nothing to lose, and jumped in to take the Cardinals with the caveat that I was only getting what he didn't want.  When the time came for the 2nd team, I took the A's, who were my second favorite team for a long time.  As you'll see, it paid off with some PC hits.

First up, the packing material:

I had actually completely forgotten about this break, even though I read all the posts about the Fleer box breaks. So when I opened the envelope and saw Sandy Alomar facing me, I thought I had received someone else's trade package.  I then realized some beat up junk wax was being used to protect the outside cards.  After opening the first team bag I remembered the break and excitedly tore through the stacks.

1993 Fleer

All cards included:
124 Rheal Cormier (2)
125 Bernard Gilkey (2)
126 Felix Jose (2)
127 Ray Lankford (2)
128 Bob McClure
129 Donovan Osbourne (2)
130 Tom Pagnozzi (2)
131 Geronimo Pena (2)
132 Mike Perez (3)
133 Lee Smith
134 Bob Tewksbury
135 Todd Worrell (2)
136 Todd Zeile
290 Lance Blankenship
291 Mike Bordick (2)
292 Jerry Browne
293 Dennis Eckersley
294 Rickey Henderson (2)
295 Vince Horsman (2)
296 Mark McGwire (2)
297 Jeff Parrett (2)
298 Ruben Sierra (2)
299 Terry Steinback (2)
300 Walt Weiss (2)
301 Bob Welch (2)
302 Willie Wilson (2)
303 Bobby Witt
Rookie Sensations: 9 of 10 Mike Perez

1993 Fleer Ultra

All cards included:

460 Rene Arocha
461 Brian Barber
462 Rheal Cormier (2)
463 Gregg Jeffries
465 Omar Olivares
466 Geronimo Pena
467 Allen Watson
603 Scott Brosius
604 Storm Davis
605 Eric Fox (2)
606 Goose Gossage (2)
607 Scott Hemond
608 Dave Henderson
609 Mark McGwire
610 Mike Mohler
611 Edwin Nunez (2)
612 Kevin Seitzer (2)
613 Ruben Sierra (2)
Dennis Eckersley Career Highlights #1

1995 Fleer Update

All cards included:
U-70 Jim Corsi (2)
U-71 Mike Harkey (2)

U-72 Dave Stewart (2)

U-73 Todd Stottlemyre (2)
U-153 Allen Battle

U-157 John Frascatore (2)

U-159 Tom Henke

Diamond Tribute 7 of 10 Rickey Henderson (2)

There were quite a few of my favorite players in there, including A's who later became Cardinals (McGwire, Eckersley, Stottlemyre).

Thanks for a great group break, especially for the price!  I'll definitely have to send some extra stuff in our next massive trade.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 6

San Francisco over Baltimore.

How about that, it's stabilizing. Week 5 also had the Niners over Ravens.  The Rams, Colts, and Dolphins now have less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning it all.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	6-0	65.23	95.48	82.49	47.40	26.05	14.62
SF	5-1	95.43	97.75	86.82	50.97	27.68	15.52
BAL	4-1	59.92	82.18	68.10	39.81	22.94	12.25
DET	5-1	33.16	86.43	63.29	33.56	17.75	9.64
NE	5-1	62.24	86.61	69.39	36.99	19.16	9.39
BUF	4-2	30.18	64.01	43.66	22.05	11.00	5.21
CIN	4-2	23.16	51.53	34.40	16.99	8.41	3.91
NO	4-2	57.54	69.65	41.72	18.53	8.34	3.98
PIT	4-2	15.53	42.78	26.74	12.73	6.11	2.75
HOU	3-3	50.44	55.07	29.65	13.83	6.47	2.87
WAS	3-2	34.27	51.12	28.96	12.53	5.51	2.57
NYJ	3-3	7.53	21.71	12.41	5.75	2.66	1.16
CHI	3-3	1.58	13.66	7.49	3.21	1.45	0.67
TEN	3-2	47.72	55.28	31.25	14.31	6.54	2.84
SD	4-1	53.82	66.00	41.91	19.04	8.61	3.71
OAK	4-2	42.44	60.37	36.56	16.40	7.35	3.13
NYG	4-2	36.14	51.67	28.37	11.69	4.88	2.17
PHI	2-4	9.69	16.67	7.77	3.03	1.24	0.54
DAL	2-3	19.89	31.08	15.13	5.81	2.30	0.97
ATL	3-3	15.35	25.68	11.87	4.41	1.71	0.70
MIN	1-5	0.03	0.43	0.19	0.07	0.03	0.01
ARI	1-4	1.36	4.23	1.81	0.65	0.24	0.09
CAR	1-5	1.19	2.05	0.81	0.27	0.10	0.04
CLE	2-3	1.39	4.65	2.16	0.83	0.32	0.12
SEA	2-3	3.08	14.66	6.51	2.26	0.80	0.30
DEN	1-4	1.52	3.43	1.46	0.53	0.20	0.07
TB	4-2	25.92	39.13	16.67	5.58	1.93	0.71
MIA	0-5	0.05	0.20	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
IND	0-6	0.40	0.41	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.00
KC	2-3	2.22	4.20	1.59	0.50	0.16	0.05
JAC	1-5	1.44	1.57	0.50	0.15	0.05	0.01
STL	0-5	0.12	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)

First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Nothing too exciting this week, my top 3 6-0 teams all confirmed their position with another win each.  Houston lost a lot of ground by simply not playing this week.  That should even out for everyone over the course of the season though.  And good news for Missouri: If we ever go to a 6-week playoff system, you'd be in!

1	LSU	7-0
2	Clemson	7-0
3	Alabama	7-0
4	Penn State	6-1
5	Virginia Tech	6-1
6	Oklahoma State	6-0
7	Oklahoma	6-0
8	Boise State	6-0
9	Michigan	6-1
10	Kansas State	6-0
11	South Carolina	6-1
12	Illinois	6-1
13	Wisconsin	6-0
14	Georgia Tech	6-1
15	Houston	6-0
16	Stanford	6-0
17	Nebraska	5-1
18	West Virginia	5-1
19	North Carolina	5-2
20	Georgia	5-2
21	Louisiana-Lafayette	6-1
22	Arizona State	5-2
23	Auburn	5-2
24	Southern Methodist	5-1
25	Michigan State	5-1
26	Rutgers	5-1
27	USC	5-1
28	Washington	5-1
29	Oregon	5-1
30	Arkansas	5-1
31	Temple	5-2
32	Southern Miss	5-1
33	Brigham Young	5-2
34	Cincinnati	5-1
35	Texas A&M	4-2
36	Toledo	4-3
37	Texas	4-2
38	Notre Dame	4-2
39	TCU	4-2
40	Eastern Michigan	4-3
41	Baylor	4-2
42	Virginia	4-2
43	South Florida	4-2
44	Syracuse	4-2
45	Texas Tech	4-2
46	Ohio State	4-3
47	San Diego State	4-2
48	Iowa	4-2
49	Wake Forest	4-2
50	Arkansas State	4-2
51	Wyoming	4-2
52	Western Michigan	4-3
53	Ball State	4-3
54	Utah	3-3
55	Florida	4-3
56	Florida International	4-2
57	Miami (FL)	3-3
58	Tennessee	3-3
59	Northern Illinois	4-3
60	Vanderbilt	3-3
61	Ohio	4-3
62	Iowa State	3-3
63	North Carolina State	3-3
64	Missouri	3-3
65	Pittsburgh	3-4
66	Air Force	3-3
67	UCLA	3-3
68	UTEP	3-3
69	Marshall	3-4
70	California	3-3
71	Florida State	3-3
72	Tulsa	3-3
73	Nevada	3-3
74	Maryland	2-4
75	Mississippi State	3-4
76	UCF	3-3
77	Bowling Green	3-4
78	San Jose State	3-4
79	Connecticut	3-4
80	Duke	3-3
81	Fresno State	3-4
82	Kansas	2-4
83	Washington State	3-3
84	Purdue	3-3
85	Hawaii	3-3
86	Navy	2-4
87	Ole Miss	2-4
88	Colorado State	3-3
89	New Mexico State	3-3
90	East Carolina	2-4
91	Louisville	2-4
92	Utah State	2-4
93	Kentucky	2-4
94	Central Michigan	2-5
95	Rice	2-4
96	Louisiana Tech	2-4
97	Louisiana-Monroe	2-4
98	Buffalo	2-5
99	North Texas	2-5
100	Troy	2-4
101	Northwestern	2-4
102	Army	2-4
103	Miami (OH)	2-4
104	Western Kentucky	2-4
105	Indiana	1-6
106	Arizona	1-5
107	Kent State	1-6
108	Akron	1-5
109	Oregon State	1-5
110	Minnesota	1-5
111	Tulane	2-5
112	Boston College	1-5
112	UNLV	1-5
114	Colorado	1-6
115	Middle Tennessee	1-4
116	Idaho	1-6
117	Memphis	1-6
118	Florida Atlantic	0-6
119	New Mexico	0-6
120	UAB	0-6