Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 4, Final

Kansas City over Green Bay

Both conference favorites re-took their positions after losing them due to playing a day later this week. I noticed both teams crossed the 10% mark for chances of being the champion, which reminded me that I hadn't yet started listing the first teams to cross such barriers. As it turns out I only missed one of the marks I traditionally track, which was in week 3 when Kansas City reached the 80% mark for making the playoffs. With an extra playoff team in each conference this year we could expect some different behavior, but 80% was reached at the same point as last year, and 90% was a gameday later, which is effectively the same point, within the margin of error of a schedule quirk. It took longer for anyone to reach the 10% mark of winning it all, which is probably also because of the extra playoff team. In the past a dominant team would be very likely to get a bye by landing at #1 or #2, but now only the cases where they are #1 result in a bye. A #2 finish now comes with some chance of not making the next round. 

I noticed we've got 4 winless teams at 0-4. We also had that last year, along with an 0-3 and 0-3-1 team, so it's nothing crazy. However, I wanted to look ahead to see what our chances were of seeing 2 winless teams face off, and none of them play each other! So finishing with 4 0-16 teams is not out of the question. At the other extreme, we will get a 4-0 vs 3-0 this week, Buffalo at Tennessee.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	4-0	0.583	82.66	93.79	67.91	37.31	20.12	11.01
GB	4-0	0.570	72.01	91.79	65.89	36.38	19.78	10.26
IND	3-1	0.592	55.44	79.57	50.14	27.76	15.24	8.48
BAL	3-1	0.583	42.27	77.75	47.56	25.77	13.86	7.58
SEA	4-0	0.549	49.07	84.61	56.13	29.42	15.19	7.55
BUF	4-0	0.539	74.44	87.10	53.01	26.16	12.70	6.39
TB	3-1	0.549	56.82	74.74	45.17	23.63	12.17	6.05
LAR	3-1	0.551	26.54	69.65	43.00	22.49	11.68	5.84
PIT	3-0	0.543	35.65	74.45	43.28	21.52	10.60	5.38
SF	2-2	0.570	13.59	49.69	29.80	16.08	8.69	4.51
CHI	3-1	0.509	23.98	65.47	36.66	17.39	8.22	3.77
TEN	3-0	0.511	39.96	68.82	36.50	16.86	7.74	3.68
CLE	3-1	0.497	17.43	55.16	26.90	11.96	5.32	2.45
NE	2-2	0.510	20.61	45.28	22.05	10.09	4.63	2.20
ARI	2-2	0.512	10.81	39.13	20.38	9.75	4.67	2.15
NO	2-2	0.500	23.02	43.55	21.75	10.16	4.71	2.12
CAR	2-2	0.494	17.38	39.93	20.00	9.20	4.22	1.87
DAL	1-3	0.472	32.76	35.46	15.81	6.84	2.96	1.25
PHI	1-2-1	0.455	36.39	38.70	16.72	6.96	2.89	1.17
LV	2-2	0.485	10.17	29.25	13.28	5.74	2.50	1.12
CIN	1-2-1	0.500	4.65	24.13	11.30	5.05	2.28	1.06
MIA	1-3	0.494	4.40	18.20	8.30	3.65	1.62	0.74
WAS	1-3	0.438	23.49	26.29	10.91	4.36	1.74	0.68
LAC	1-3	0.474	3.40	17.69	7.74	3.26	1.38	0.61
MIN	1-3	0.469	2.57	16.36	7.57	3.26	1.42	0.59
DEN	1-3	0.466	3.77	12.71	5.42	2.24	0.94	0.40
DET	1-3	0.454	1.43	12.10	5.34	2.22	0.94	0.38
JAC	1-3	0.461	3.63	11.83	5.00	2.05	0.85	0.36
ATL	0-4	0.452	2.77	4.76	2.00	0.84	0.35	0.14
NYG	0-4	0.400	7.36	7.77	2.87	1.04	0.38	0.13
HOU	0-4	0.424	0.96	2.59	0.99	0.37	0.14	0.05
NYJ	0-4	0.401	0.55	1.70	0.61	0.21	0.08	0.03

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay

[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay

[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle