NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

I could almost rewrite last week's post with regard to the top and bottom of the rankings. Notre Dame remains a bit behind Ohio State. Ohio State played a weaker opponent than Notre Dame this week, and so the difference in their relative strengths of schedule is tightening. And Southern Miss remains winless, now at 0-9 and a stranglehold on the #120 ranking.

Mizzou...lost again. However, I really thought Florida would come out swinging and take their anger about last week's loss out on the Tigers. Instead, they let the Tigers take a 7-0 halftime lead before scoring 2 TDs to win the game 14-7. Unfortunately, a loss is a loss, so Mizzou drops to #67

1	Ohio State	10-0
2	Notre Dame	9-0
3	Alabama	9-0
4	Kansas State	9-0
5	Oregon	9-0
6	Florida	8-1
7	Louisville	9-0
8	Georgia	8-1
9	Clemson	8-1
10	Florida State	8-1
11	Northern Illinois	9-1
12	Toledo	8-1
13	Oregon State	7-1
14	Texas A&M	7-2
15	LSU	7-2
16	Nebraska	7-2
17	Kent State	8-1
18	Utah State	8-2
19	South Carolina	7-2
20	Stanford	7-2
21	Louisiana Tech	8-1
22	UCLA	7-2
23	Texas	7-2
24	San Jose State	7-2
25	Northwestern	7-2
26	Rutgers	7-1
27	Mississippi State	7-2
28	Ohio	8-1
29	San Diego State	7-3
30	Boise State	7-2
31	Oklahoma	6-2
32	Cincinnati	6-2
33	Texas Tech	6-3
34	Fresno State	7-3
35	Penn State	6-3
36	UCF	7-2
37	Tulsa	7-2
38	Michigan	6-3
39	Wisconsin	6-3
40	North Carolina	6-3
41	Arizona	5-4
42	Navy	6-3
43	USC	6-3
44	Duke	6-4
45	Ball State	6-3
46	Washington	5-4
47	West Virginia	5-3
48	TCU	6-3
49	Miami (FL)	5-4
50	Arkansas State	6-3
51	Middle Tennessee	6-3
52	Iowa State	5-4
53	East Carolina	6-4
54	Western Kentucky	6-3
55	Louisiana-Monroe	6-3
56	Ole Miss	5-4
57	Michigan State	5-5
58	Oklahoma State	5-3
59	Nevada	6-3
60	Arizona State	5-4
61	Minnesota	5-4
62	Bowling Green	6-3
63	Wake Forest	5-4
64	Brigham Young	5-4
65	Vanderbilt	5-4
66	North Carolina State	5-4
67	Missouri	4-5
68	Louisiana-Lafayette	5-3
69	Baylor	4-4
70	Syracuse	4-5
71	Arkansas	4-5
72	Iowa	4-5
73	Tennessee	4-5
74	Indiana	4-5
75	Utah	4-5
76	Air Force	5-4
77	Virginia Tech	4-5
78	Pittsburgh	4-5
79	Miami (OH)	4-5
80	Western Michigan	4-6
81	Georgia Tech	4-5
82	Houston	4-5
83	Southern Methodist	4-5
84	Purdue	3-6
85	Marshall	4-5
86	South Florida	3-6
87	New Mexico	4-6
88	Temple	3-5
89	Maryland	4-5
90	Virginia	3-6
91	California	3-7
92	Troy	4-5
93	Central Michigan	3-6
94	Rice	4-6
95	North Texas	3-6
96	Illinois	2-7
97	Auburn	2-7
98	Buffalo	2-7
99	Connecticut	3-6
100	Army	2-7
101	UNLV	2-8
102	Wyoming	2-7
103	Washington State	2-7
104	Florida Atlantic	2-7
105	Boston College	2-7
106	Colorado State	2-7
107	Kentucky	1-9
108	UTEP	2-7
109	UAB	2-7
110	Kansas	1-8
111	Florida International	2-8
112	Tulane	2-7
113	Eastern Michigan	1-8
114	Colorado	1-8
115	Memphis	1-8
116	Idaho	1-8
117	Hawaii	1-7
118	Akron	1-9
119	New Mexico State	1-8
120	Southern Miss	0-9

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]
[Week 6]
[Week 7]
[Week 8]
[Week 9]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 9, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

One neat thing about the NFL's division setup and short season is the way it makes division games extremely meaningful. Kansas City had a measly 0.305% chance of winning the division until last night, and now have a 0.027% chance, less than 10% of the original value. That's because they played San Diego, and knocked themselves down a peg in many tiebreakers with the loss. San Diego's odds improved while all 3 division teams lost ground, because they pulled away from Oakland and got closer to Denver, again tipping some tiebreakers in their favor.

I've got an extra place of precision in some numbers I don't publish here, and that puts KC at a 0.0002% chance of winning the Superbowl, which rounds to the 0.000 you see below. As a reminder, or for anyone who didn't follow along last year, a minus sign (-) will be displayed instead of 0.000 when the value is truly 0 out of all the millions of simulations. 0.000 indicates a value that rounds below 0.001%

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	6-2	0.680	94.712	97.164	76.729	43.956	25.003	14.605
CHI	6-1	0.659	71.549	94.099	75.241	41.152	22.091	12.390
HOU	6-1	0.643	95.434	99.202	94.388	56.086	31.663	16.096
NE	5-3	0.642	69.526	88.034	68.253	39.472	21.827	11.082
NYG	6-2	0.627	87.424	93.275	67.788	33.729	16.598	8.739
ATL	7-0	0.625	96.525	98.696	86.247	44.650	21.675	11.382
DEN	4-3	0.591	72.392	83.636	56.818	28.374	13.885	6.294
GB	5-3	0.573	17.145	61.695	31.366	13.481	5.893	2.779
SD	4-4	0.560	24.009	52.531	29.403	13.302	6.129	2.591
TB	3-4	0.559	3.243	22.884	10.166	4.203	1.778	0.814
MIA	4-3	0.556	26.480	62.257	36.623	16.825	7.639	3.200
PIT	4-3	0.548	38.812	59.727	34.433	15.120	6.727	2.763
MIN	5-3	0.536	10.531	44.431	20.631	8.122	3.255	1.415
BAL	5-2	0.525	56.247	76.449	49.224	20.881	8.730	3.401
SEA	4-4	0.516	2.812	24.118	9.736	3.669	1.403	0.584
WAS	3-5	0.476	3.743	13.240	4.841	1.630	0.561	0.212
DET	3-4	0.475	0.775	9.485	3.430	1.149	0.396	0.149
CIN	3-4	0.461	3.950	12.924	5.568	1.936	0.713	0.236
ARI	4-4	0.459	1.753	12.567	4.406	1.427	0.473	0.171
NO	2-5	0.459	0.215	2.524	0.872	0.281	0.093	0.034
DAL	3-4	0.446	4.494	13.828	4.740	1.470	0.466	0.163
NYJ	3-5	0.436	2.114	10.563	4.064	1.340	0.468	0.144
CLE	2-6	0.431	0.992	2.594	1.000	0.315	0.107	0.033
IND	4-3	0.428	4.374	28.953	11.781	3.808	1.301	0.393
PHI	3-4	0.420	4.339	9.031	2.954	0.850	0.250	0.082
CAR	1-6	0.417	0.018	0.158	0.047	0.013	0.004	0.001
BUF	3-4	0.412	1.881	8.896	3.343	1.042	0.340	0.099
OAK	3-4	0.409	3.572	11.129	4.196	1.273	0.409	0.117
STL	3-5	0.393	0.722	2.804	0.807	0.218	0.060	0.018
TEN	3-5	0.350	0.168	2.570	0.754	0.189	0.052	0.012
JAC	1-6	0.343	0.024	0.472	0.134	0.033	0.009	0.002
KC	1-7	0.323	0.027	0.063	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]

2012 World Series Projections Wrapup

Here's a nice little graph of the changing championship odds through the playoffs. I started to color the lines by team, but there was way too much orange and red to make it worthwhile.

Worst position for San Francisco: 2.2%, when they were down 0-2 in the NLDS
Best position for Detroit: 47.89%, when the World Series was tied 0-0
Best position for an LCS Loser: 52.55%, when St. Louis was up 3-1 on San Francisco
Best position for an LDS Loser: 24.09%, when Washington was up 1-0 on St. Louis
Best position for a Wildcard Loser: 6.24% for Atlanta, narrowly above the 6.22% for Texas

Seeing that St. Louis line so high reminds me how a lot of St. Louisans felt, that the Cardinals were destined to make and even win the World Series when they were up 3-1 in the NLCS, and when they had the comeback against the Nationals. But, we ran out of magic, and San Francisco won an impressive 7 games in a row to finish the NLCS and sweep the World Series.

By the way, the Sweep-and-get-swept the Tigers pulled off has actually happened twice before. First, in 1990 when Oakland swept Boston, then got swept by Cincinnati. Then, just 5 years ago in 2007, Colorado swept the Diamondbacks (with aid of Matt Holliday), then got rolled over by the Yankees in 4 straight.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 8, Final

San Francisco over Houston

With a big win last night, San Francisco is the top NFL team again, and is favored to beat Houston in the Superbowl. The Cardinals, along with the Rams and even Seattle, now have pretty poor chances of winning the NFC West, the only division really affected by last night's game.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	6-2	0.680	94.714	97.159	76.713	43.950	24.997	14.619
CHI	6-1	0.659	71.557	94.071	75.220	41.143	22.087	12.407
HOU	6-1	0.643	95.506	99.266	94.595	56.683	32.086	16.308
NE	5-3	0.642	69.508	88.667	69.102	40.181	22.290	11.316
NYG	6-2	0.627	87.425	93.263	67.786	33.729	16.599	8.755
ATL	7-0	0.625	96.410	98.674	86.205	44.636	21.670	11.396
DEN	4-3	0.591	79.112	86.259	58.991	29.532	14.482	6.564
GB	5-3	0.573	17.141	61.588	31.315	13.457	5.884	2.780
TB	3-4	0.559	3.360	23.524	10.461	4.325	1.828	0.838
MIA	4-3	0.556	26.431	63.722	37.703	17.377	7.914	3.319
PIT	4-3	0.548	38.513	61.530	35.788	15.744	7.031	2.890
MIN	5-3	0.536	10.528	44.299	20.581	8.103	3.248	1.416
BAL	5-2	0.525	56.663	78.372	51.213	21.812	9.147	3.563
SD	3-4	0.522	16.127	37.892	19.281	7.946	3.371	1.302
SEA	4-4	0.516	2.814	24.037	9.708	3.654	1.396	0.581
WAS	3-5	0.476	3.744	13.174	4.818	1.621	0.557	0.211
DET	3-4	0.475	0.774	9.443	3.409	1.142	0.393	0.149
CIN	3-4	0.461	3.896	13.680	5.925	2.059	0.762	0.253
ARI	4-4	0.459	1.750	12.522	4.392	1.422	0.471	0.170
NO	2-5	0.459	0.212	2.493	0.861	0.275	0.091	0.033
DAL	3-4	0.446	4.493	13.789	4.730	1.465	0.464	0.163
NYJ	3-5	0.436	2.188	11.750	4.543	1.496	0.524	0.162
CLE	2-6	0.431	0.928	2.664	1.038	0.327	0.112	0.034
IND	4-3	0.428	4.300	29.954	12.213	3.956	1.358	0.410
PHI	3-4	0.420	4.337	9.006	2.948	0.847	0.250	0.082
CAR	1-6	0.417	0.017	0.161	0.048	0.014	0.004	0.001
BUF	3-4	0.412	1.873	9.617	3.636	1.134	0.371	0.107
OAK	3-4	0.409	4.456	12.686	4.803	1.461	0.471	0.134
STL	3-5	0.393	0.722	2.797	0.805	0.218	0.060	0.018
KC	1-6	0.351	0.305	0.518	0.163	0.041	0.011	0.003
TEN	3-5	0.350	0.169	2.891	0.855	0.214	0.059	0.014
JAC	1-6	0.343	0.025	0.533	0.153	0.038	0.010	0.002

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thurssday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Chicago over Houston

Chicago is favored to make the Superbowl by a slim margin over Atlanta, because Atlanta has much more of a lock on the NFC South and a leg up for a first round bye, counteracting most of Chicago's strength advantage.

Carolina is now at a 1 in 100,000 chance based on the displayed numbers, though there could be rounding putting them as low as 5 in 1,000,000, or 1 in 200,000.

But, Carolina is better than several teams when you use the scoring metrics I use, including my Rams after that abysmal loss to New England in Old England. Still, we're 3-5, so not out of it yet. But it's going to take some surprising wins to keep saying that after the next few weeks.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	6-1	0.659	71.998	93.620	76.690	43.432	24.026	13.491
HOU	6-1	0.643	95.516	99.259	94.553	56.639	32.037	16.744
NE	5-3	0.643	69.701	89.077	69.648	40.522	22.474	11.733
SF	5-2	0.639	80.252	88.140	62.308	32.626	17.131	9.258
NYG	6-2	0.627	87.429	93.069	69.122	35.552	18.077	9.531
ATL	7-0	0.625	96.201	98.494	87.322	46.448	23.387	12.296
DEN	4-3	0.591	79.122	86.234	58.792	29.389	14.412	6.737
GB	5-3	0.573	16.605	58.843	31.442	13.919	6.284	2.968
TB	3-4	0.559	3.535	22.247	10.349	4.398	1.922	0.881
MIA	4-3	0.556	26.552	64.579	38.254	17.623	8.023	3.471
PIT	4-3	0.548	38.517	61.403	35.610	15.642	6.984	2.966
MIN	5-3	0.536	10.662	43.803	21.482	8.728	3.612	1.572
BAL	5-2	0.525	56.661	78.288	51.031	21.701	9.093	3.663
SD	3-4	0.522	16.126	37.826	19.222	7.916	3.358	1.342
SEA	4-4	0.516	5.140	22.434	9.648	3.719	1.470	0.611
ARI	4-3	0.516	13.298	30.576	14.000	5.426	2.144	0.893
WAS	3-5	0.476	3.746	12.646	4.819	1.672	0.598	0.225
DET	3-4	0.475	0.735	8.434	3.205	1.105	0.394	0.149
CIN	3-4	0.461	3.894	13.581	5.872	2.038	0.754	0.259
NO	2-5	0.458	0.245	2.515	0.918	0.303	0.104	0.038
DAL	3-4	0.446	4.491	13.348	4.782	1.532	0.505	0.177
NYJ	3-5	0.436	1.941	11.053	4.258	1.399	0.490	0.157
CLE	2-6	0.431	0.928	2.647	1.031	0.324	0.111	0.035
IND	4-3	0.428	4.292	29.868	12.162	3.935	1.347	0.422
PHI	3-4	0.420	4.334	8.589	2.908	0.867	0.267	0.087
CAR	1-6	0.417	0.019	0.140	0.044	0.013	0.004	0.001
BUF	3-4	0.412	1.806	9.666	3.646	1.135	0.372	0.111
OAK	3-4	0.409	4.448	12.622	4.768	1.448	0.465	0.138
STL	3-5	0.393	1.311	3.100	0.960	0.263	0.075	0.023
KC	1-6	0.351	0.305	0.515	0.161	0.041	0.011	0.003
TEN	3-5	0.350	0.169	2.858	0.843	0.211	0.058	0.015
JAC	1-6	0.343	0.024	0.525	0.150	0.037	0.010	0.002

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thurssday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

Ohio State keeps winning, but so does Notre Dame. Florida dropped from #3 to #7 with a loss to a very strong Georgia team. Oklahoma is ranked surprisingly low, well below some 3-loss teams, despite one of their losses coming this week to #2 Notre Dame. And Southern Miss is now the only Division 1 - er, excuse me, FBS - team without a win.

Mizzou got their first SEC win, but it was pretty much a gimme at home against Kentucky. Still, they're at 4-4, and may salvage bowl eligibility yet.

1	Ohio State	9-0
2	Notre Dame	8-0
3	Kansas State	8-0
4	Alabama	8-0
5	Oregon	8-0
6	Florida State	8-1
7	Florida	7-1
8	Louisville	8-0
9	Toledo	8-1
10	LSU	7-1
11	Northern Illinois	8-1
12	South Carolina	7-2
13	Georgia	7-1
14	Clemson	7-1
15	Northwestern	7-2
16	Rutgers	7-1
17	Mississippi State	7-1
18	Stanford	6-2
19	Boise State	7-1
20	Oregon State	6-1
21	Utah State	7-2
22	Kent State	7-1
23	Texas Tech	6-2
24	Texas A&M	6-2
25	Nebraska	6-2
26	Tulsa	7-1
27	San Jose State	6-2
28	Louisiana Tech	7-1
29	Arizona	5-3
30	Wisconsin	6-3
31	Texas	6-2
32	North Carolina	6-3
33	UCLA	6-2
34	Ohio	7-1
35	USC	6-2
36	Duke	6-3
37	Cincinnati	5-2
38	Fresno State	6-3
39	West Virginia	5-2
40	Ball State	6-3
41	Iowa State	5-3
42	Oklahoma	5-2
43	Louisiana-Monroe	6-2
44	San Diego State	6-3
45	Western Kentucky	6-2
46	Michigan State	5-4
47	Penn State	5-3
48	Michigan	5-3
49	UCF	6-2
50	Navy	5-3
51	Oklahoma State	5-2
52	Minnesota	5-3
53	Ole Miss	5-3
54	Arizona State	5-3
55	North Carolina State	5-3
56	Washington	4-4
57	Nevada	6-3
58	Bowling Green	6-3
59	Brigham Young	5-4
60	Arkansas State	5-3
61	Miami (FL)	4-4
62	TCU	5-3
63	Middle Tennessee	5-3
64	Iowa	4-4
65	East Carolina	5-4
66	Syracuse	4-4
67	Missouri	4-4
68	Air Force	5-3
69	Miami (OH)	4-4
70	Virginia Tech	4-4
71	Wake Forest	4-4
72	Vanderbilt	4-4
73	Pittsburgh	4-4
74	Baylor	3-4
75	New Mexico	4-5
76	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-3
77	Houston	4-4
78	Purdue	3-5
79	Maryland	4-4
80	Southern Methodist	4-4
81	Tennessee	3-5
82	Utah	3-5
83	Arkansas	3-5
84	Indiana	3-5
85	Troy	4-4
86	California	3-6
87	Central Michigan	3-5
88	Temple	3-4
89	Western Michigan	3-6
90	North Texas	3-5
91	Marshall	3-5
92	Georgia Tech	3-5
93	South Florida	2-6
94	Connecticut	3-5
95	Rice	3-6
96	Illinois	2-6
97	Colorado State	2-6
98	Virginia	2-6
99	Washington State	2-6
100	Florida Atlantic	2-6
101	Boston College	2-6
102	Tulane	2-6
103	Kentucky	1-8
104	Auburn	1-7
105	UTEP	2-7
106	Kansas	1-7
107	Wyoming	1-7
108	Buffalo	1-7
109	Eastern Michigan	1-7
110	UNLV	1-8
111	Colorado	1-7
112	Army	1-7
113	Hawaii	1-6
114	UAB	1-7
115	Memphis	1-7
116	Idaho	1-7
117	New Mexico State	1-7
118	Florida International	1-8
119	Akron	1-8
120	Southern Miss	0-8

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]
[Week 6]
[Week 7]
[Week 8]

2012 World Series Projection, October 28

World Series
DET 0-3 SF

League Championship Series
STL 3-4 SF
DET 4-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5468	94.22
DET	0.5372	5.78

It's looking like I may need to write my final World Series wrap-up post sooner than I thought. San Francisco has been relentless in shutting down the Tigers offense, and now stands a 94% chance of winning one of the next (up to) 4 games. Now I wonder if any team since the LCS started has swept their LCS but been swept in the World Series. If it happens tonight, I'll have that stat tomorrow. If not, forget I said anything.

Free Card Friday at Jaybarkerfan's Junk

The title pretty much says it all. Go leave a comment on this post for a chance to win these cards:

That's really hard to see, so here's the list straight from the post.
2011 Topps Pro Debut Evan Chambers
2012 Bowman Platinum Jeurys Familia
2011 Bowman Kurt Suzuki
2011 Topps Heritage Max Scherzer
2009 UD Spectrum Aaron Rowand
1999 Stadium Club Roger Clemens

And 3 more

2011 Bowman Chrome Brandon Belt
2011 Bowman Chrome Evan Crawford
2011 A&G Jersey Elvis Andrus


If 25 people enter, the prize gets bigger next week, so do us both a favor and go enter now.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Chicago over Houston

The Bears became even more solid in their playoff spot as Minnesota lost at home to Tampa last night, giving them a 70% chance at the division, up from 61% last week. The Vikings blew their chance to be one of the 3 6-win teams, and instead now sit at 5-3 at their halfway point, with a 14% chance at their division. Tampa jumped up to a 6% chance of winning the division from under 3% last week, with Atlanta obviously still dominating the odds at 6-0 and 92%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	5-1	0.650	69.969	89.371	73.308	41.894	23.398	13.465
HOU	6-1	0.644	96.390	99.450	96.322	60.641	36.864	19.786
SF	5-2	0.639	74.121	84.173	62.534	34.180	18.537	10.455
NYG	5-2	0.618	72.484	83.963	62.186	32.399	16.637	9.020
ATL	6-0	0.604	92.408	95.764	81.313	42.164	20.792	10.961
NE	4-3	0.589	61.256	79.963	57.811	31.127	15.903	7.628
TB	3-4	0.559	5.881	20.241	10.130	4.488	2.025	0.975
DEN	3-3	0.557	61.100	74.570	49.130	24.209	11.523	5.154
GB	4-3	0.555	15.495	47.096	25.517	11.269	5.052	2.414
MIN	5-3	0.536	13.936	41.026	21.832	9.252	3.974	1.826
SEA	4-3	0.529	10.172	34.609	17.276	7.197	3.034	1.373
BAL	5-2	0.525	67.019	83.215	59.685	27.927	12.215	5.090
SD	3-3	0.522	33.823	58.309	34.657	15.527	6.874	2.839
PIT	3-3	0.517	26.958	47.962	27.501	12.018	5.274	2.151
ARI	4-3	0.516	11.508	26.984	13.285	5.393	2.213	0.973
MIA	3-3	0.507	22.231	46.462	26.259	11.400	4.886	1.949
WAS	3-4	0.502	8.556	20.791	9.287	3.593	1.417	0.603
NO	2-4	0.491	1.599	6.176	2.726	1.032	0.400	0.166
NYJ	3-4	0.478	12.882	31.593	15.648	6.205	2.516	0.934
STL	3-4	0.473	4.198	9.715	4.034	1.460	0.541	0.216
DET	2-4	0.466	0.600	4.560	1.815	0.640	0.233	0.091
CIN	3-4	0.461	5.280	17.425	8.273	3.071	1.209	0.430
DAL	3-3	0.455	10.084	19.439	8.100	2.792	0.977	0.372
PHI	3-3	0.447	8.876	15.635	6.501	2.197	0.753	0.282
CLE	1-6	0.435	0.743	2.060	0.877	0.297	0.111	0.037
IND	3-3	0.421	2.904	24.133	10.314	3.422	1.242	0.397
CAR	1-5	0.419	0.112	0.458	0.158	0.050	0.016	0.006
BUF	3-4	0.412	3.631	11.865	4.968	1.643	0.571	0.177
OAK	2-4	0.396	3.586	8.836	3.585	1.124	0.375	0.111
KC	1-5	0.371	1.490	2.596	0.953	0.275	0.086	0.024
TEN	3-4	0.367	0.619	9.734	3.399	0.945	0.297	0.082
JAC	1-5	0.363	0.086	1.829	0.618	0.168	0.053	0.014

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thurssday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]

2012 World Series Projection, October 26

World Series
DET 0-2 SF

League Championship Series
STL 3-4 SF
DET 4-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5468	82.43
DET	0.5372	17.57

With another big win at home, the Giants are now over 80% likely to win their second world series in 3 years. However, they must now go on the road, something this model doesn't take into account. Even so, at worst they can lose 3 in Detroit, and they'll come back to San Francisco needing to only win their home games to be champs.

2012 World Series Projection, October 25

World Series
DET 0-1 SF

League Championship Series
STL 3-4 SF
DET 4-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5468	67.41
DET	0.5372	32.59

In game 1, the Panda outplayed the Tiger, and the Giants took a 1-0 lead. They're now over 2:1 favorites to win 3 more before Detroit can win 4.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 7, Final

Chicago over Houston

Finally, a Monday night game that causes some movement. Chicago is the strongest team again, and now is favored to win the NFC, and would be favored over the AFC favorite, Houston. Houston has a better overall chance of winning, because the competition is tighter atop the NFC. Even though Chicago is the traditional rival of St. Louis in baseball and hockey, I don't have any particular dislike for the Bears. I guess it's because the Rams haven't been here long enough or played the Bears enough times to really build a rivalry. So, with that, go Bears.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	5-1	0.650	61.239	87.958	70.086	39.823	22.193	12.767
HOU	6-1	0.644	96.261	99.412	96.151	60.511	36.789	19.730
SF	5-2	0.639	74.383	83.833	61.102	33.281	18.015	10.165
NYG	5-2	0.618	72.282	83.104	60.575	31.411	16.096	8.727
ATL	6-0	0.604	95.370	96.958	82.139	42.286	20.837	10.984
NE	4-3	0.589	61.242	79.881	57.741	31.069	15.884	7.607
MIN	5-2	0.576	25.407	62.869	38.887	18.139	8.502	4.248
DEN	3-3	0.557	61.120	74.814	49.443	24.381	11.602	5.183
GB	4-3	0.555	12.923	43.799	23.392	10.343	4.622	2.208
SEA	4-3	0.529	9.822	32.911	16.256	6.776	2.850	1.290
BAL	5-2	0.525	66.999	83.125	59.542	27.865	12.197	5.072
TB	2-4	0.524	2.770	8.663	3.957	1.615	0.672	0.301
SD	3-3	0.522	33.848	58.714	34.954	15.669	6.932	2.858
PIT	3-3	0.517	26.972	47.809	27.395	11.978	5.259	2.144
ARI	4-3	0.516	11.582	26.175	12.646	5.140	2.103	0.924
MIA	3-3	0.507	22.246	46.383	26.206	11.387	4.882	1.946
WAS	3-4	0.502	8.538	19.949	8.807	3.412	1.340	0.570
NO	2-4	0.491	1.725	5.982	2.625	0.997	0.384	0.159
NYJ	3-4	0.478	12.883	31.475	15.590	6.184	2.509	0.929
STL	3-4	0.473	4.213	9.188	3.778	1.372	0.507	0.202
DET	2-4	0.466	0.431	4.162	1.631	0.577	0.209	0.082
CIN	3-4	0.461	5.287	17.343	8.234	3.059	1.203	0.427
DAL	3-3	0.455	10.047	18.478	7.610	2.629	0.918	0.350
PHI	3-3	0.447	9.134	15.511	6.352	2.149	0.736	0.275
CLE	1-6	0.435	0.743	2.050	0.872	0.295	0.110	0.037
IND	3-3	0.421	3.001	24.168	10.347	3.438	1.249	0.398
CAR	1-5	0.419	0.135	0.461	0.157	0.049	0.016	0.005
BUF	3-4	0.412	3.628	11.809	4.946	1.636	0.570	0.177
OAK	2-4	0.396	3.590	8.987	3.652	1.148	0.383	0.114
KC	1-5	0.371	1.441	2.553	0.937	0.271	0.084	0.023
TEN	3-4	0.367	0.647	9.664	3.377	0.942	0.296	0.080
JAC	1-5	0.363	0.090	1.814	0.613	0.167	0.052	0.014

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thurssday]
[Week 7, Sunday]

2012 World Series Projection, October 23

World Series
DET 0-0 SF

League Championship Series
STL 3-4 SF
DET 4-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
SF	0.5468	100.00	52.11
DET	0.5372	100.00	47.89

When they were down 0-2 to Cincinnati, the Giants had a 2.3% chance of winning the World Series, and now are favored over Detroit. Winning 6 elimination games in a single postseason is pretty impressive. I don't know if the Cardinals got overconfident, the Giants turned up the intensity, or just the randomness of baseball played went against the Cardinals this time. I'm a little conflicted about who to root for in the World Series. The Giants are the NL team, and they beat my Cardinals, tempting me to want to be beaten by the best team. On the other hand, it's hard to flip from rooting against a team to rooting for them so quickly, and Detroit has a few guys I like, such as Prince Fielder and Jim Leyland. I think I'll root for the AL team this year, since I'd like to see Jim Leyland get one more World Series, and San Francisco did just win in 2010. Either way, I think I'll enjoy this World Series on the nights I get to watch it.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Houston over Atlanta

Houston reasserted its dominance in the NFL, and is now the top team in terms of strength as well as Superbowl odds. They are the first team of the year to crack the 20% mark for that, as well as being over 99% likely to make the playoffs. On the other end, Carolina is going to need another decimal place to show their chances pretty soon. They're at about 1 in 16,667 now.

The Rams spoiled me by getting over .500 for the first time in a few years, and now we're back in the slums at 3-4. Maybe the trip to Old England to play New England will turn out surprisingly well and get us back to .500.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	6-1	0.644	96.323	99.422	96.205	60.555	36.819	20.043
SF	5-2	0.639	74.610	84.389	62.805	34.852	19.197	10.826
CHI	4-1	0.626	49.124	78.068	58.116	31.384	16.717	9.194
NYG	5-2	0.618	72.306	83.299	61.803	32.615	17.034	9.237
ATL	6-0	0.604	95.317	96.937	82.968	43.334	21.807	11.490
NE	4-3	0.589	61.265	79.912	57.761	31.079	15.890	7.739
MIN	5-2	0.577	32.029	64.455	41.461	19.744	9.387	4.692
DEN	3-3	0.557	61.141	74.829	49.464	24.397	11.610	5.276
GB	4-3	0.555	16.787	44.633	24.576	11.081	5.027	2.402
SEA	4-3	0.529	9.750	33.583	16.912	7.190	3.082	1.394
BAL	5-2	0.525	67.005	83.126	59.534	27.856	12.181	5.163
TB	2-4	0.524	2.798	8.743	4.058	1.693	0.716	0.320
SD	3-3	0.522	33.838	58.722	34.954	15.668	6.933	2.912
PIT	3-3	0.517	26.975	47.794	27.384	11.966	5.249	2.178
ARI	4-3	0.516	11.512	26.801	13.197	5.468	2.278	1.003
MIA	3-3	0.507	22.232	46.396	26.207	11.379	4.880	1.982
WAS	3-4	0.502	8.533	20.113	9.067	3.587	1.438	0.612
NO	2-4	0.491	1.743	6.085	2.707	1.053	0.415	0.173
DET	2-3	0.480	2.060	9.197	4.017	1.512	0.578	0.235
NYJ	3-4	0.478	12.878	31.478	15.583	6.184	2.505	0.947
STL	3-4	0.473	4.128	9.111	3.834	1.427	0.538	0.215
CIN	3-4	0.461	5.277	17.322	8.218	3.051	1.202	0.436
DAL	3-3	0.455	10.034	18.482	7.787	2.750	0.980	0.374
PHI	3-3	0.447	9.127	15.605	6.520	2.256	0.789	0.294
CLE	1-6	0.435	0.742	2.047	0.870	0.295	0.110	0.037
IND	3-3	0.421	2.934	23.968	10.244	3.397	1.234	0.402
CAR	1-5	0.419	0.142	0.499	0.172	0.055	0.018	0.006
BUF	3-4	0.412	3.626	11.796	4.936	1.630	0.568	0.180
OAK	2-4	0.396	3.582	8.968	3.644	1.145	0.381	0.116
KC	1-5	0.370	1.438	2.548	0.936	0.270	0.084	0.024
TEN	3-4	0.367	0.656	9.880	3.454	0.961	0.302	0.085
JAC	1-5	0.362	0.087	1.792	0.606	0.165	0.052	0.014

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thurssday]

2012 World Series Projection, October 22

League Championship Series
STL 3-3 SF
DET 4-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
DET	0.5372	100.00	44.43
STL	0.5765	53.01	31.08
SF	0.5468	46.99	24.48

As exciting as a Game 7 is, I'd really have preferred to wrap this up without the threat of elimination. The Cardinals will have a tough task against Matt Cain, but at least Kyle Lohse has had a strong few weeks. Hopefully he's got at least one more strong start in him.

Detroit is now the favorite to win, but that's just because the NL representative is as close to 50/50 as it can get right now. Whichever team wins tonight, they will start the World Series as favorites.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Florida hold on to their #1, #2, and #3 seeds, and Alabama, Kansas State, and Oregon shuffle around a bit between #4, #5, and #6, keeping the top of the rankings relatively static this week. Missouri didn't even play this week, giving me no chance to throw my pity party this week.

It looks like my closest match in the first week of the BCS standings is Florida, which is #2 in the BCS. Ohio is ineligible of course, so I'd be dead on if I dropped out the ineligible teams.

1	Ohio State	8-0
2	Notre Dame	7-0
3	Florida	7-0
4	Kansas State	7-0
5	Oregon	7-0
6	Alabama	7-0
7	LSU	7-1
8	Rutgers	7-0
9	Florida State	7-1
10	Mississippi State	7-0
11	Toledo	7-1
12	Oregon State	6-0
13	Texas Tech	6-1
14	Louisville	7-0
15	Northern Illinois	7-1
16	South Carolina	6-2
17	Tulsa	7-1
18	Ohio	7-0
19	Wisconsin	6-2
20	Clemson	6-1
21	Stanford	5-2
22	USC	6-1
23	Boise State	6-1
24	Duke	6-2
25	Georgia	6-1
26	West Virginia	5-2
27	Northwestern	6-2
28	Texas A&M	5-2
29	Cincinnati	5-1
30	Oklahoma	5-1
31	Utah State	6-2
32	Louisiana Tech	6-1
33	Kent State	6-1
34	Penn State	5-2
35	Texas	5-2
36	San Jose State	5-2
37	Nebraska	5-2
38	Nevada	6-2
39	North Carolina State	5-2
40	Michigan	5-2
41	North Carolina	5-3
42	Arizona State	5-2
43	UCLA	5-2
44	Iowa State	4-3
45	Ball State	5-3
46	Arizona	4-3
47	TCU	5-2
48	Western Kentucky	5-2
49	Fresno State	5-3
50	San Diego State	5-3
51	Louisiana-Monroe	5-2
52	East Carolina	5-3
53	Miami (FL)	4-4
54	UCF	5-2
55	Iowa	4-3
56	Minnesota	4-3
57	Bowling Green	5-3
58	Michigan State	4-4
59	Oklahoma State	4-2
60	Ole Miss	4-3
61	Wake Forest	4-3
62	Navy	4-3
63	Virginia Tech	4-4
64	Maryland	4-3
65	Brigham Young	4-4
66	Arkansas State	4-3
67	Washington	3-4
68	Troy	4-3
69	New Mexico	4-4
70	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-2
71	Purdue	3-4
72	Baylor	3-3
73	Missouri	3-4
74	Syracuse	3-4
75	Middle Tennessee	4-3
76	Temple	3-3
77	California	3-5
78	Tennessee	3-4
79	Arkansas	3-4
80	Air Force	4-3
81	Vanderbilt	3-4
82	Miami (OH)	3-4
83	Pittsburgh	3-4
84	North Texas	3-4
85	Marshall	3-4
86	South Florida	2-5
87	Western Michigan	3-5
88	Southern Methodist	3-4
89	Houston	3-4
90	Georgia Tech	3-4
91	Connecticut	3-5
92	Utah	2-5
93	Illinois	2-5
94	Central Michigan	2-5
95	Indiana	2-5
96	Virginia	2-6
97	Washington State	2-5
98	Kentucky	1-7
99	UTEP	2-6
100	Rice	2-6
101	Auburn	1-6
102	Kansas	1-6
103	UAB	1-6
104	Hawaii	1-5
105	Wyoming	1-6
106	Eastern Michigan	1-6
107	Buffalo	1-6
108	UNLV	1-7
109	Colorado State	1-6
110	Memphis	1-6
111	Tulane	1-6
112	Army	1-6
113	Florida Atlantic	1-6
114	Boston College	1-6
115	Colorado	1-6
116	Idaho	1-7
117	New Mexico State	1-6
118	Florida International	1-7
119	Akron	1-7
120	Southern Miss	0-7

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]
[Week 6]
[Week 7]

2012 Heritage Blaster #3

I took advantage of Target's discounted $11.99 blasters they've had out lately, but only found one 2012 Heritage box. Still, since I gladly paid $19.99 for my two previous blasters, I figured it was worth buying another. Here's my favorite stuff from the box: the Cardinals, Short Prints, and Inserts.

First we have the base card Cardinals. There were 9 current and 2 former Cardinals in the box, including Adron Chambers twice on two different Rookie Stars cards, and Dan Haren's regular and League Leaders card.

2012 Topps Heritage
#83 Lance Berkman
#95 2012 Rookie Stars
#97 Kyle Lohse
#142 Craig "Pinches" Rangers in Opener
#206 Lance Lynn
#250 Jon Jay
#306 Star Receivers
#321 2012 Rookie Stars
#375 Daniel Descalso

I'm now 3 for 3 in choosing blasters with a Descalso.

2012 Topps Heritage
#8 AL Pitching Leaders
#231 Dan Haren

Haren seems to be the most common former Cardinal I find in current products, maybe he's just the biggest star we've let go recently, other than he-who-must-not-be-named-until-we-win-a-World-Series-without-him.

2012 Topps Heritage
#472 Alfonso Soriano SP
#476 Prince Fielder SP

Two big stars on the Short Prints here. I hope Fielder remains ringless through 2012 though, if the Cardinals can defeat the Giants at least.

2012 Topps Heritage
Baseball Flashbacks - #BF-SKO Sandy Koufax
News Flashbacks - #NF-VT Valentina Tereshkova

Sometimes I like to think I'm really into the history of space travel, then I learn that a Russian Cosmonaut was the first woman in space. It sure seems like a real space buff would have known that.

2012 Topps Heritage
Then and Now - #TN-KB

More non-number card numbers. This shouldn't bother me so much. Curiously, Killebrew was the 1963 HR leader, the year this set is supposed to mimic, but Bautista is the 2011 leader. Shouldn't a 1963 tribute set show the 1962 leader? I guess that seems wrong too, but in a different way.

2012 Topps Heritage
Stick-Ons - #5 Jose Reyes

Maybe I'll have these guys adorn my plain white cardboard storage boxes. That'd be somewhat appropriate.

2012 Topps Heritage
Chrome Parallel - #HP61 David Price

And we'll finish this pack off strong with the Chrome Parallel. Everyone loves shiny things, and that this is a David Price is an extra bonus.

This blaster seemed to have a bonus helping of Cardinals along with its regular number of inserts, so that made it extra nice for my $12. Heritage seemed to be unpopular this year, so I'll be keeping my eye out for more deals in the coming weeks.

2012 World Series Projection, October 20

League Championship Series
STL 3-2 SF
DET 4-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.5765	77.92	45.69
DET	0.5372	100.00	42.81
SF	0.5468	22.08	11.50

Watching the game last night, it felt like San Francisco made several really great defensive plays, and of course the Cardinals had one crucial bad play, when Lynn tried to throw the ball to 2nd. I cringed as soon as he turned to throw, as it seems pitchers often make a bad throw to any base but first, and sure enough, it bounced off the bag and went into center field. After a day off today, we'll have to go win 1 of 2 in San Francisco to face the Tigers next week in the World Series.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Atlanta over Houston

San Francisco won a low-scoring game against Seattle, and is now considered the strongest team in the league, though that's partially due to having played 2 more games than Chicago at the moment. With both teams starting the night at 4-2, that game wasn't going to really affect the Rams chances much differently either way, since there would be a 5-2 and 4-3 team in front of them in both cases.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	5-2	0.639	66.933	81.971	62.141	34.968	19.467	11.256
CHI	4-1	0.626	58.889	79.878	61.570	33.761	18.180	10.255
NYG	4-2	0.610	60.725	73.261	52.119	27.083	13.976	7.650
ATL	6-0	0.604	92.617	96.114	83.327	44.227	22.526	12.187
HOU	5-1	0.602	93.714	97.675	88.793	51.301	28.466	14.396
NE	3-3	0.583	46.634	68.682	47.321	24.686	12.967	6.302
BAL	5-1	0.582	81.442	92.998	78.654	43.354	22.580	10.938
MIN	4-2	0.560	25.564	50.172	30.795	14.273	6.618	3.290
DEN	3-3	0.557	61.687	73.340	47.288	23.374	11.562	5.311
TB	2-3	0.540	6.184	19.335	9.920	4.354	1.933	0.921
GB	3-3	0.537	12.595	30.536	16.257	7.101	3.129	1.480
ARI	4-2	0.535	17.563	41.991	23.445	10.263	4.507	2.125
SEA	4-3	0.529	8.149	31.260	16.146	6.937	3.011	1.402
SD	3-3	0.522	34.163	56.490	33.161	15.080	6.911	2.933
WAS	3-3	0.508	19.661	31.555	15.859	6.458	2.654	1.181
MIA	3-3	0.507	22.460	46.106	25.648	11.214	4.982	2.046
PIT	2-3	0.502	10.214	28.781	15.257	6.617	2.913	1.183
STL	3-3	0.497	7.355	19.507	9.269	3.702	1.494	0.650
NYJ	3-3	0.484	23.476	42.931	22.624	9.370	3.945	1.530
DET	2-3	0.480	2.953	9.921	4.507	1.722	0.669	0.280
NO	1-4	0.479	0.838	3.041	1.337	0.513	0.199	0.083
CIN	3-3	0.475	7.531	29.879	14.811	5.999	2.485	0.945
PHI	3-3	0.447	11.415	16.900	7.284	2.544	0.900	0.347
DAL	2-3	0.447	8.199	12.880	5.393	1.881	0.665	0.256
CLE	1-5	0.446	0.813	4.826	2.077	0.774	0.302	0.106
CAR	1-4	0.433	0.360	1.680	0.632	0.213	0.073	0.027
IND	2-3	0.421	4.586	17.722	7.797	2.766	1.013	0.334
BUF	3-3	0.412	7.429	21.418	9.467	3.261	1.155	0.372
OAK	1-4	0.396	2.555	5.515	2.196	0.719	0.246	0.076
JAC	1-4	0.373	0.740	4.913	1.791	0.548	0.176	0.051
KC	1-5	0.371	1.595	2.529	0.922	0.278	0.088	0.025
TEN	2-4	0.368	0.960	6.195	2.193	0.660	0.209	0.059

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]

2012 World Series Projection, October 19

League Championship Series
STL 3-1 SF
DET 4-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.5765	89.63	52.55
DET	0.5372	100.00	42.04
SF	0.5468	10.37	5.41

The Yankees certainly fell fast after losing Jeter, and Detroit makes their second World series since the 2006 season. I'm hoping for a rematch and repeat of that year of course, when the Cardinals beat them in 5 games. But first, we'll have to get past the Giants, and we've got up to 3 chances to do it, starting tonight.

2012 World Series Projection, October 18

League Championship Series
STL 2-1 SF
DET 3-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.5765	73.13	42.18
DET	0.5372	90.94	39.21
SF	0.5468	26.87	13.74
NYY	0.5852	9.06	4.87

I can't decide if I'm happy about the Yankees-Tigers rainout or not. On one hand, it keeps the winner from having one more off day before the World Series than the NL winner. On the other hand, Detroit had a long layoff in 2006, while the Cardinals went to 7 games in the NLCS, and that worked out pretty well.

Most important was the Cardinal win of course, putting us back in the likeliest winner seat.

2012 World Series Projection, October 17

League Championship Series
STL 1-1 SF
DET 3-0 NYY

Divison Series
STL 3-2 WAS
SF 3-2 CIN
BAL 2-3 NYY
DET 3-2 OAK

Wildcard Round
STL 1-0 ATL
BAL 1-0 TEX

Team	Strength	WS	Win
DET	0.5372	90.94	40.25
STL	0.5765	55.63	32.09
SF	0.5468	44.37	22.69
NYY	0.5852	9.06	4.97

That was a pretty strong performance from Verlander last night, and the Yankees are down 3-0. They've got just a 9% chance of winning 4 in a row to make the World Series, giving us a decent chance of seeing Miguel Cabrera win the Triple Crown, AL MVP, and World Series MVP in the same year.