Stanley Cup Final
BOS 3-3 STL
Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS
Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI
Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI
| Team | Strength | Cup |
|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0.592 | 59.1 |
| STL | 0.551 | 40.9 |
We're tied 3-3 and the whole thing comes down to one final game in Boston. I'm hoping St. Louis can make it more of a game than they did in game 6, and even moreso of course I'm hoping they will win.
I've been reading up on modeling NHL games, and the consensus seems to be that overtime is almost random, shaded just slightly toward the team that was favored to win the game. That's because the initial odds consider the chances of one team scoring more than the other over the course of 60 minutes, but overtime could be considered like a bunch of 1-second games, which of course would almost always finish in ties, but will eventually result in a goal for one side or the other. That's a long-winded way of pointing out that while the chances are 59.1% for Boston now, they slide ever-closer to 50% the later in the game it gets with a tied score.
