2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 30

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 1-1 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
BOS	0.592	55.9
STL	0.551	44.1

St. Louis has finally won a game in the Stanley Cup Final, after going 0 for their first 13. The series is tied, The series is tied, and home ice advantage now belongs to St. Louis, but Boston is still slightly favored. Since I bothered to calculate the chances of all these things below, I might as well show them too.

Game 6	75.1
Game 7	37.6
BOS in 4	0
BOS in 5	14.3
BOS in 6	19.4
BOS in 7	22.2
STL in 4	0
STL in 5	10.6
STL in 6	18.1
STL in 7	15.4

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 28

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 1-0 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
BOS	0.592	73.2
STL	0.551	26.8

St. Louis took a 2-0 lead in game 1, but allowed 3 unanswered goals plus another on an empty net to lose 4-2. It'll be an uphill climb, but they still have a better than 1-in-4 chance to win the cup. Now that we're down to 1 series, I ran a few other numbers I thought might be interesting, partially motivated by trying to figure out my plans for next Sunday.

Chances of...
A sweep: 14.3%
At least 5 games: 85.7%
At least 6 games: 58.1%
All 7 games: 29.2%

May Card Show Autograph

May 2018, that is. I'm going to get caught up on everything I want to post one of these days; at least I keep telling myself that. Anyway, today's autograph is Lindy McDaniel.

Lindy McDaniel
#41

Lindy played for the Cardinals from 1955-1962, starting at the age of 19. He had his best season in 1960, earning a Save in one of the 2 All-Star games, and a Cy Young vote, finishing third. He continued with other teams all the way through 1975, his age 39 season.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 22

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 0-0 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Cup
BOS	0.592	60.6
STL	0.551	39.4

I never felt like this day would come, but St. Louis is in the Stanley Cup Final. They're playing a stronger team and don't have home ice, but a 60/40 chance really isn't all that bad. They'll have 5 off days to recuperate, compared against Boston's 10, with the series starting on Monday night.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 20

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 3-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	60.6
STL	0.551	75.3	29.7
SJS	0.551	24.7	9.7

St. Louis won 5-0 to go up 3-2 in the series. They're now just about 75% likely to make the final. That's because they'll be approximately 50% likely to win in game 6, and the remaining 25% comes from their roughly 50% chance to win game 7 combined with the 50% chance of losing game 6. The series resumes Tuesday back in St. Louis.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 18

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 2-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	60.6
SJS	0.551	52.5	20.7
STL	0.551	47.5	18.7

The Western Conference finals are back to even, but unlike when it was 1-1, San Jose now has home ice advantage again (1 of the next 2 plus game 7), and so they are favored this time, just like they were at 0-0. A 52.5% advantage is still pretty close though, like flipping an almost-fair coin, or, more exactly, rolling a 40 sided die and having 21 chances to win but 19 chances to lose.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 17

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 1-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	60.6
SJS	0.551	68.9	27.1
STL	0.551	31.1	12.3

Boston finished their 4-0 sweep with a 4-0 win, and now waits for at least 2 more games to be played in the West before the final can be scheduled. Their chances to win will stay right about that 60.6% listed, because their potential opponents have nearly identical strengths and Boston will have home ice advantage, having earned 107 regular season points to the 101 and 99 of San Jose and St. Louis. That Western Conference series resumes tonight.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 16

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 1-2 SJS
CAR 0-3 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	95.8	58.1
SJS	0.551	68.9	27.5
STL	0.551	31.1	12.4
CAR	0.547	4.2	2.0

San Jose took a 2-1 lead with just a little bit of controversy with a goal off an apparent hand pass in overtime. Luckily it wasn't game 7, so that mistake may be forgotten by the time their series is over. Tonight, Boston tries to complete the sweep. If they do, they could finish a full week before the Western Conference champ, giving them an extra 7 days of rest and/or rust before the final.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 15

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 1-1 SJS
CAR 0-3 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	95.8	58.1
STL	0.551	51.9	20.7
SJS	0.551	48.1	19.2
CAR	0.547	4.2	2.1

Boston is up 3-0 and over 95% likely to make it to the final now. That series could end with the Western Conference finals at 2-1, giving a whole lot of rest to Boston. But, we won't get ahead of ourselves; Carolina could still come back and win 4 games in a row. Tonight, St. Louis and San Jose resume and break their 1-1 tie.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 1-1 SJS
CAR 0-2 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	85.5	51.8
STL	0.551	51.9	21.2
SJS	0.551	48.1	19.8
CAR	0.547	14.5	7.1

St. Louis tied the series, and now effectively have home ice advantage in a best of 5 series. That tips things just slightly in their favor, but still pretty close to a coin toss. Tonight, Boston and Carolina play game 3.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 13

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-1 SJS
CAR 0-2 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	85.5	51.8
SJS	0.551	65.7	27.1
STL	0.551	34.3	14.0
CAR	0.547	14.5	7.0

Boston won again, going up 6-0 before allowing 2 goals to make the final score not look so lopsided. But a win's a win, and they are up 2-0, giving them about a 6 in 7 chance of winning the series. Imagine Carolina's 1 in 7 as a little worse than rolling a single die once and needing a six to win. We'll have a game every day at least through Friday, longer if we avoid sweeps, so St. Louis and San Jose resume today.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 12

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-1 SJS
CAR 0-1 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	73.8	44.7
SJS	0.551	65.7	28.1
STL	0.551	34.3	14.4
CAR	0.547	26.2	12.7

San Jose beat St. Louis handily in game 1, which gives about a 2/3 chance of winning the series. Boston and Carolina resume today, and there's not much else to say.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 10

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-0 SJS
CAR 0-1 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	73.8	44.7
SJS	0.551	51.5	22.1
STL	0.551	48.5	20.4
CAR	0.547	26.2	12.8

Boston won game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, and solidified their position as the most favored team. There's an off day today, with games resuming Saturday for the start of the Western Conference finals.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 9

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-0 SJS
CAR 0-0 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	61.4	37.2
SJS	0.551	51.5	22.9
STL	0.551	48.5	21.0
CAR	0.547	38.6	18.9

We're down to 4 teams, and the projections should quit violently moving back and forth, although I guess a back-and-forth series could result in just that.

I was messing around with my program today to investigate how low home ice would need to be in order to make St. Louis the favored team in the West. Their strength is just barely higher than San Jose, but I assume a 55% home ice advantage per game, thus the series favors San Jose at the moment. As it turns out, somewhere between 50.116% and 50.117% is where the home ice advantage flips the series to San Jose.

Even though we just finished one round, the next round starts today - no breaks! Boston takes on Carolina to start things off.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 8

Boston over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	61.4	37.8
STL	0.551	100.0	52.0	22.5
CAR	0.547	100.0	38.6	19.6
SJS	0.551	57.3	29.5	13.1
COL	0.528	42.7	18.5	7.1

With a win in the second overtime, St. Louis won game 7 and became the favorite to win the West, at least for today. San Jose would take that back with a win over Colorado tonight in their game 7. Either way, the conference finals will both be set after tonight.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 7

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-3 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	61.4	38.5
CAR	0.547	100.0	38.6	20.1
SJS	0.551	57.3	31.2	13.8
STL	0.551	58.1	30.2	13.1
COL	0.528	42.7	19.7	7.6
DAL	0.519	41.9	18.9	6.9

Boston closed out their series against Columbus, a result no other team should have wanted based on my strength numbers. Tonight, St. Louis and Dallas play game 7. If St. Louis wins, they'll certainly be the favorite for at least a day, and I think Dallas would too, although their low strength might mean they don't quite make it, I haven't run the numbers.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 6

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 2-3 SJS
DAL 3-3 STL
CBJ 2-3 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	79.0	48.6	30.2
CAR	0.547	100.0	41.0	21.0
SJS	0.551	77.5	42.2	19.4
STL	0.551	58.1	29.2	13.1
DAL	0.519	41.9	18.2	6.9
CBJ	0.553	21.0	10.4	5.4
COL	0.528	22.5	10.4	4.1

St. Louis won to tie their series, but San Jose is still favored for now, so the projection stays stable for once. That seems to be rare this year.

Both Boston and San Jose could win their way to the third round tonight, unless Columbus or Colorado can tie the series and force a game 7.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 5

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 2-3 SJS
DAL 3-2 STL
CBJ 2-3 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	79.0	48.6	30.7
CAR	0.547	100.0	41.0	21.3
SJS	0.551	77.5	43.8	20.1
DAL	0.519	72.0	31.3	11.8
STL	0.551	28.0	14.1	6.3
CBJ	0.553	21.0	10.4	5.5
COL	0.528	22.5	10.9	4.3

Boston and San Jose both won to take their series to 3-2, and to both take over the lead in their conferences, so the projection is completely upended today. There's just one game today, as St. Louis goes to Dallas to try to avoid elimination.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 4

Carolina over Dallas

Round 2
COL 2-2 SJS
DAL 3-2 STL
CBJ 2-2 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CAR	0.547	100.0	43.4	23.0
BOS	0.592	58.4	35.9	22.9
SJS	0.551	56.0	31.6	15.0
DAL	0.519	72.0	32.6	12.6
CBJ	0.553	41.6	20.7	11.1
COL	0.528	44.0	21.3	8.6
STL	0.551	28.0	14.6	6.7

With a a win over St. Louis giving them a 3-2 lead, Dallas is just barely favored to move on and win the West, slightly ahead of San Jose who is currently tied 2-2 with Colorado. Carolina has advanced to the Eastern Conference final, and so is currently the favorite, with Boston and Columbus also tied at 2. Each of those 2-2 series will play today and also have at least one more game Monday.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 3

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 2-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 STL
CBJ 2-2 BOS
CAR 3-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	58.4	35.6	22.4
CAR	0.547	92.4	40.1	20.9
SJS	0.551	56.0	30.5	14.4
STL	0.551	57.2	29.8	13.7
CBJ	0.553	41.6	20.5	10.7
COL	0.528	44.0	20.4	8.2
DAL	0.519	42.8	19.3	7.5
NYI	0.575	7.6	3.8	2.2

3 of the 4 series are now tied at 2-2, making them near tossups. Carolina has a chance to finish a sweep against New York tonight and earn plenty of extra rest before the conference final. Dallas and St. Louis will break their 2-2 tie in the late game, but obviously have at least one more game Sunday.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 2

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 1-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 STL
CBJ 2-1 BOS
CAR 3-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CAR	0.547	92.4	42.4	21.8
SJS	0.551	72.3	39.4	19.2
CBJ	0.553	62.7	30.9	16.0
BOS	0.592	37.3	22.7	14.2
STL	0.551	57.2	29.0	13.8
DAL	0.519	42.8	18.8	7.4
COL	0.528	27.7	12.8	5.3
NYI	0.575	7.6	4.0	2.3

Carolina took a 3-0 lead, and is over 92% likely to win at least 1 of their next up-to-4 games to advance. Dallas tied up the series against St. Louis, so San Jose remains on top of the West.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 1

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 1-2 SJS
DAL 1-2 STL
CBJ 2-1 BOS
CAR 2-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
SJS	0.551	72.3	38.6	18.5
CAR	0.547	79.0	36.3	18.5
STL	0.551	73.4	37.3	17.5
CBJ	0.553	62.7	30.4	15.5
BOS	0.592	37.3	22.4	13.9
NYI	0.575	21.0	10.9	6.4
COL	0.528	27.7	12.5	5.1
DAL	0.519	26.6	11.7	4.6

Last night, Boston was upset by Columbus, and I ran my numbers between games, showing St. Louis's chances went up a little, since they'd face a weaker team in the final on average. But, San Jose also won, which makes St. Louis's path out of the West harder. So it was roughly a wash, moving them from 17.6% to 17.5% in the table. San Jose takes over the lead in the West, and Carolina retains the lead in the East.