2019-11-01

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 9, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

San Francisco caught up to New England in record, though not quite in strength, at 8-0. Those two make up the most likely Super Bowl matchup by far at this point, at a little more than 2 in 11 chances, not quite 1 in 5. We're going to start having eliminations soon. Miami could easily be eliminated from winning the AFC East this week, with a loss and a New England win.

One column I don't generally show here, conference homefield advantage (i.e., the #1 seed), already has a few blank spots. I don't think it's technically impossible, just so unlikely my billions of simulations didn't hit any one of the scenarios on Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, or Miami being #1. Just to verify it, I was able to get to a place where 0-8 Cincinnati had a non-zero chance by forcing 21 games to go just the right way, such as New England and Cinncinati both going 8-8 due to a whole lot of blowouts, and dragging down Houston, Kansas City, and Buffalo by giving them big losses against their NFC opponents.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-00.74397.7299.9798.9670.5949.2230.17
SF8-00.71293.4699.3194.4359.9737.3721.08
MIN6-20.65129.0581.9054.0728.3814.587.25
GB7-10.59868.7891.8968.1833.0314.516.44
BAL5-20.59680.7086.3662.4432.6813.746.19
NO7-10.58088.6694.2670.9332.6113.655.83
DAL4-30.62374.7476.5942.1420.169.764.58
KC5-30.58076.7079.4851.0724.6110.114.39
IND5-20.51548.3969.4146.6219.156.652.47
HOU5-30.54427.0455.5134.8214.505.652.26
BUF5-20.5302.2878.0238.5113.865.652.19
LAR5-30.5751.5035.9217.727.263.211.35
SEA6-20.5225.0347.2421.737.923.081.15
JAC4-40.52215.0634.7719.337.292.751.04
PIT3-40.51115.4233.8617.946.812.480.92
TEN4-40.5349.5124.0713.485.122.020.79
PHI4-40.50623.8428.1011.684.181.540.55
CAR4-30.49110.6922.6710.063.471.210.42
LAC3-50.50011.1212.946.222.260.810.29
OAK3-40.42510.8216.447.022.110.620.18
DET3-3-10.4891.299.974.181.400.500.17
CHI3-40.5160.877.663.301.170.450.17
CLE2-50.4063.866.992.760.780.220.06
TB2-50.4750.652.470.950.300.100.03
DEN2-60.4311.372.000.800.230.070.02
NYG2-60.3891.401.540.470.120.030.01
ARI3-5-10.3990.000.450.140.030.010.00
NYJ1-60.3120.000.150.040.010.000.00
CIN0-80.3360.010.010.000.000.000.00
WAS1-70.3090.020.020.010.000.000.00
ATL1-70.3620.010.010.000.000.000.00
MIA0-70.2960.000.010.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco

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