NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

The bye weeks are kicking in at the top, so 10 5-0 teams have displaced Notre Dame this week, along with West Virginia and Texas Tech at 4-0. Are there usually still 22 undefeated teams 5 weeks into the season? I guess I can't easily find whether it's true "usually", but I can compare to Week 5, 2011, when there were just 15.

Mizzou beat #68 UCF to rise up to #38. On the upside, their strength of schedule for future games will help keep them afloat. On the downside, the tough schedule will drop them a little (or a lot) with every loss.

1	Florida State	5-0
2	Oregon	5-0
3	Alabama	5-0
4	Georgia	5-0
5	South Carolina	5-0
6	Ohio State	5-0
7	LSU	5-0
8	Northwestern	5-0
9	Ohio	5-0
10	Louisville	5-0
11	Texas Tech	4-0
12	West Virginia	4-0
13	Notre Dame	4-0
14	Miami (FL)	4-1
15	Florida	4-0
16	Texas	4-0
17	Arizona State	4-1
18	Kansas State	4-0
19	Clemson	4-1
20	Mississippi State	4-0
21	Minnesota	4-1
22	Toledo	4-1
23	Rutgers	4-0
24	Louisiana Tech	4-0
25	Northern Illinois	4-1
26	Nebraska	4-1
27	Oregon State	3-0
28	UCLA	4-1
29	Utah State	4-1
30	Nevada	4-1
31	San Jose State	4-1
32	Duke	4-1
33	TCU	4-0
34	Stanford	3-1
35	Iowa State	3-1
36	Western Kentucky	4-1
37	Tulsa	4-1
38	Missouri	3-2
39	Arizona	3-2
40	Boise State	3-1
41	Iowa	3-2
42	Washington	3-1
43	Purdue	3-1
44	Cincinnati	3-0
45	Michigan State	3-2
46	North Carolina State	3-2
47	Baylor	3-1
48	Wisconsin	3-2
49	Texas A&M	3-1
50	Kent State	3-1
51	Ball State	3-2
52	North Carolina	3-2
53	USC	3-1
54	Tennessee	3-2
55	Ole Miss	3-2
56	Louisiana-Lafayette	3-1
57	East Carolina	3-2
58	Penn State	3-2
59	Wake Forest	3-2
60	Middle Tennessee	3-1
61	Fresno State	3-2
62	Troy	3-2
63	Miami (OH)	3-2
64	Virginia Tech	3-2
65	Connecticut	3-2
66	Brigham Young	3-2
67	South Florida	2-3
68	Central Michigan	2-2
69	Utah	2-2
70	Western Michigan	2-3
71	Virginia	2-3
71	Oklahoma	2-1
73	Oklahoma State	2-2
74	Pittsburgh	2-2
75	Indiana	2-2
76	Illinois	2-3
77	Michigan	2-2
78	New Mexico	2-3
79	UCF	2-2
80	Marshall	2-3
81	Georgia Tech	2-3
82	Maryland	2-2
83	San Diego State	2-3
84	North Texas	2-3
85	Arkansas State	2-3
86	Washington State	2-3
87	Bowling Green	2-3
88	Louisiana-Monroe	2-2
89	Kentucky	1-4
90	Syracuse	1-3
91	Air Force	2-2
92	Auburn	1-3
93	Vanderbilt	1-3
94	Boston College	1-3
95	California	1-4
96	Temple	1-2
97	Southern Methodist	1-3
98	Wyoming	1-3
99	Kansas	1-3
100	Buffalo	1-3
101	Navy	1-3
102	Arkansas	1-4
103	Hawaii	1-3
104	Houston	1-3
105	Florida Atlantic	1-4
106	UNLV	1-4
107	New Mexico State	1-4
108	Florida International	1-4
109	Colorado State	1-4
110	UTEP	1-4
111	Rice	1-4
112	Colorado	1-4
113	Akron	1-4
114	UAB	0-4
115	Southern Miss	0-4
116	Eastern Michigan	0-4
117	Tulane	0-4
118	Army	0-4
119	Memphis	0-4
120	Idaho	0-5

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Houston over Atlanta

Somebody's gotta make some moves, I'm tired of putting "Houston over Atlanta" at the top. Baltimore climbed a bit with the win, though it's a bit of an unfair comparison to have a team that has finished 4 games and the rest that have only played 3. What is legitimate, however, is that they've solidified their chances at the division with a divisional win against Cleveland.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	3-0	0.576	78.988	88.268	74.535	42.217	23.503	12.644
ATL	3-0	0.572	78.606	84.501	68.079	37.416	20.286	10.960
BAL	3-1	0.564	63.527	79.830	62.348	34.312	18.491	9.736
ARI	3-0	0.561	54.048	75.396	57.957	31.000	16.386	8.673
CHI	2-1	0.550	39.576	55.090	38.113	19.726	10.117	5.243
SEA	2-1	0.549	23.570	53.536	35.702	18.336	9.417	4.865
NYG	2-1	0.548	40.078	56.646	39.335	20.167	10.269	5.297
NE	1-2	0.534	22.808	37.659	23.972	12.057	6.059	3.004
SD	2-1	0.529	52.212	65.310	45.940	23.087	11.437	5.612
MIN	2-1	0.524	32.696	47.732	31.397	15.345	7.445	3.665
BUF	2-1	0.514	28.401	48.437	31.447	15.227	7.329	3.484
NYJ	2-1	0.511	35.528	51.488	33.523	16.163	7.728	3.658
SF	2-1	0.510	17.617	38.926	24.058	11.384	5.397	2.583
GB	1-2	0.508	16.447	25.187	14.616	6.874	3.232	1.539
PIT	1-2	0.504	15.497	30.316	18.067	8.542	4.044	1.884
DEN	1-2	0.500	23.055	34.962	20.840	9.732	4.543	2.098
MIA	1-2	0.498	13.264	25.923	14.874	6.900	3.213	1.479
WAS	1-2	0.497	15.034	24.285	14.102	6.447	2.950	1.374
DET	1-2	0.489	11.282	18.926	10.601	4.792	2.167	0.993
TB	1-2	0.484	11.650	20.931	11.389	5.103	2.290	1.038
DAL	2-1	0.481	25.972	38.533	22.763	10.039	4.419	1.985
CIN	2-1	0.475	19.706	40.141	23.549	10.420	4.611	2.017
NO	0-3	0.472	3.571	7.537	3.832	1.667	0.728	0.321
STL	1-2	0.465	4.765	12.297	6.413	2.735	1.174	0.509
JAC	1-2	0.460	7.058	20.864	10.900	4.632	2.000	0.846
IND	1-2	0.459	7.686	19.156	10.174	4.335	1.869	0.787
PHI	2-1	0.456	18.916	28.040	15.439	6.418	2.667	1.132
OAK	1-2	0.453	11.170	19.709	10.340	4.324	1.818	0.756
KC	1-2	0.452	13.562	20.800	11.022	4.603	1.932	0.802
CLE	0-4	0.448	1.269	3.668	1.740	0.716	0.300	0.123
CAR	1-2	0.447	6.172	12.438	6.204	2.552	1.055	0.440
TEN	1-2	0.438	6.267	13.470	6.729	2.733	1.124	0.451

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]

eBay Wins #44

Here's another 1 cent card I grabbed from eBay. I've never heard of the guy, but according to my Zistle inventory I only had 2 cards from 2005 Topps Update. That means I'm now 50% further into the set for a mere penny! Statistics can be used to mislead intentionally!

2005 Topps Update
#UH288 Scott Mitchinson

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2017
Total Spent	$38.58
Per Card	1.913 cents

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 3, Final

Houston over Atlanta

The ridiculous end to the MNF game didn't change the projected overall season outcome, but certainly affected the teams involved. Green Bay fell to just a 25% chance of making the playoffs, well below the mean (37.5% of teams make the playoffs). Let's look at what happens if the game ends 12-7 in favor of Green Bay.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	1-2	0.534	12.120	28.656	17.224	8.518	4.198	2.123
GB	2-1	0.527	31.385	49.853	32.716	15.984	7.836	3.949

The strengths don't change immensely with a mere 7-point swing. However, the records do, and Green Bay's playoff odds would greatly improve with the win. Their Division and Wild Card chances have been nearly cut in half by that one bad call, while Seattle's Division and Wild Card chances have almost doubled. This is an interesting symmetry given that they are not in the same division, but is likely mostly coincidental, because the change in Division-winning odds obviously comes at the expense/gain of the teams in their respective divisions. Green Bay's Superbowl odds have been reduced even more than 50%, and Seattle's have more than doubled, too, compared the correct call results.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	3-0	0.576	79.198	88.542	75.520	43.110	24.305	13.076
ATL	3-0	0.572	78.623	84.513	68.084	37.421	20.281	11.057
ARI	3-0	0.561	54.052	75.400	57.955	31.004	16.387	8.751
CHI	2-1	0.550	39.580	55.084	38.107	19.722	10.119	5.291
BAL	2-1	0.549	51.569	68.110	50.411	26.866	14.072	7.183
SEA	2-1	0.549	23.579	53.548	35.714	18.340	9.421	4.913
NYG	2-1	0.548	40.107	56.687	39.370	20.191	10.287	5.354
NE	1-2	0.534	22.809	37.908	24.511	12.475	6.332	3.138
SD	2-1	0.529	52.231	65.607	46.813	23.807	11.919	5.850
MIN	2-1	0.524	32.699	47.730	31.400	15.346	7.447	3.698
BUF	2-1	0.514	28.412	48.979	32.272	15.817	7.686	3.656
NYJ	2-1	0.511	35.526	51.853	34.255	16.714	8.070	3.817
SF	2-1	0.510	17.610	38.910	24.047	11.376	5.394	2.607
GB	1-2	0.508	16.446	25.182	14.604	6.869	3.229	1.551
PIT	1-2	0.504	18.995	31.773	19.287	9.214	4.390	2.046
DEN	1-2	0.500	23.059	35.253	21.363	10.102	4.759	2.198
MIA	1-2	0.498	13.253	26.165	15.260	7.171	3.370	1.550
WAS	1-2	0.497	15.035	24.303	14.114	6.449	2.950	1.387
DET	1-2	0.489	11.275	18.918	10.595	4.791	2.167	1.003
TB	1-2	0.484	11.639	20.922	11.382	5.097	2.286	1.046
DAL	2-1	0.481	25.959	38.534	22.767	10.036	4.416	2.005
CIN	2-1	0.475	24.612	41.773	25.156	11.271	5.023	2.196
NO	0-3	0.472	3.565	7.528	3.828	1.664	0.727	0.323
STL	1-2	0.465	4.760	12.283	6.404	2.731	1.172	0.514
CLE	0-3	0.463	4.824	9.253	4.844	2.103	0.920	0.391
JAC	1-2	0.460	7.014	21.099	11.161	4.790	2.095	0.887
IND	1-2	0.459	7.562	19.207	10.324	4.441	1.940	0.819
PHI	2-1	0.456	18.899	28.027	15.427	6.413	2.664	1.142
OAK	1-2	0.453	11.165	19.912	10.621	4.498	1.911	0.794
KC	1-2	0.452	13.546	20.994	11.314	4.791	2.030	0.841
CAR	1-2	0.447	6.172	12.431	6.199	2.551	1.054	0.443
TEN	1-2	0.438	6.227	13.572	6.888	2.828	1.177	0.472

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Houston over Atlanta

Houston remains the strongest team, but Atlanta moves right up behind them, and has the greatest chance among NFC teams of making the Superbowl.

I've added the strength column thanks to a question by Josh from Royals and Randoms. The strength is the Pythagorean Winning Percentage expectation, found from a statistic called PythagenPat, originating in Baseball Prospectus

Each time I run my simulations, the total number of points and games played thus far are used to find the points-per-game (ppg). An exponent, X, is defined as ppg^0.287. The 0.287 is actually used for baseball, but I've yet to find a "better" value for football. Then, a team's Pythagorean Winning Percentage expectation is found using their Points For and Points Against, as PF^X/(PF^X + PA^X). A team that has shut out every opponent will have a winning expection of 1.000, and a team with the same number of points for and against will have an expectation of .500, which makes sense.

Finally, I use a tactic from SportsClubStats.com, which is regressing the expectation to the mean. I do this by first subtracting .500, making all values between .500 and -0.500. Then I multiply by the percentage of the season passed so far, 3/16 for most of the teams below. Then the .500 is added back. This means that a team who has had nothing but shutouts for 3 games of the 16 game season would have a strength of .59375, and a team that has scored no points would have .40625. This keeps crazy results early in the season from showing a team with a huge chance of being the champion after 1 dominant game.

Denver has the same Points For and Points Against so far, and so are at exactly .500.

The strengths are used to simulate the games. If team x has strength xp, and team y has strength yp, team x's chances of beating team y are:
xp(1-yp) / (xp(1-yp) + yp(1-xp))
and vice versa for team y beating team x, and it can be seen this will sum to 1.

Then a random number is generated between 0 and 1 and used to determine the winner of the simulated game in a weighted fashion.  I run it at least 100,000,000 times, and The result is the lovely table of percentages below.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	3-0	0.576	79.234	88.536	75.505	43.098	24.293	13.103
ATL	3-0	0.572	78.630	84.601	68.263	37.634	20.472	11.157
ARI	3-0	0.561	57.848	76.198	58.897	31.626	16.763	8.956
CHI	2-1	0.550	36.818	54.555	37.797	19.620	10.095	5.279
BAL	2-1	0.549	51.602	68.129	50.415	26.876	14.081	7.212
NYG	2-1	0.548	40.103	57.002	39.649	20.402	10.429	5.427
SEA	1-1	0.538	17.278	40.745	25.975	13.046	6.561	3.352
NE	1-2	0.534	22.815	37.990	24.573	12.509	6.348	3.156
SD	2-1	0.529	52.260	65.615	46.818	23.816	11.917	5.867
MIN	2-1	0.524	30.595	47.266	31.191	15.286	7.441	3.696
BUF	2-1	0.514	28.414	49.059	32.331	15.841	7.702	3.674
GB	1-1	0.511	22.217	35.308	21.822	10.389	4.925	2.383
NYJ	2-1	0.511	35.526	51.934	34.326	16.746	8.087	3.837
SF	2-1	0.511	19.480	40.048	24.856	11.799	5.611	2.712
PIT	1-2	0.504	18.983	31.747	19.268	9.207	4.385	2.048
DEN	1-2	0.500	23.061	35.233	21.352	10.093	4.758	2.205
MIA	1-2	0.498	13.244	26.226	15.288	7.181	3.374	1.557
WAS	1-2	0.497	15.042	24.528	14.247	6.531	2.997	1.410
DET	1-2	0.489	10.370	18.671	10.499	4.756	2.157	0.996
TB	1-2	0.484	11.623	21.112	11.495	5.160	2.326	1.063
DAL	2-1	0.481	25.964	38.800	22.971	10.157	4.485	2.035
CIN	2-1	0.475	24.593	41.722	25.121	11.250	5.014	2.199
NO	0-3	0.472	3.551	7.628	3.884	1.691	0.741	0.329
STL	1-2	0.464	5.395	12.753	6.663	2.849	1.227	0.537
CLE	0-3	0.463	4.823	9.236	4.834	2.099	0.919	0.392
JAC	1-2	0.460	7.004	21.042	11.124	4.771	2.085	0.885
IND	1-2	0.459	7.553	19.180	10.310	4.439	1.938	0.820
PHI	2-1	0.456	18.891	28.227	15.528	6.472	2.700	1.157
OAK	1-2	0.453	11.152	19.876	10.596	4.487	1.904	0.792
KC	1-2	0.452	13.528	20.952	11.285	4.772	2.023	0.841
CAR	1-2	0.447	6.196	12.559	6.263	2.581	1.069	0.450
TEN	1-2	0.438	6.209	13.523	6.855	2.814	1.173	0.472

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

What?? Notre Dame? I didn't think they'd reach the top anytime in the next few years. A team I don't particularly like, Oregon, has climbed to number 2. Fitting for my opinion of them and Nike I suppose.

Missouri has fallen to 2-2 and #49 in my rankings. As I think I said before, this is going to be a tough year for the Tigers in the SEC.

Also, LSU only gains 2 spots, rising to #17, in part because Idaho, their last opponent, lost again, and is now dead last at #120.

1	Notre Dame	4-0
2	Oregon	4-0
3	Florida	4-0
4	Florida State	4-0
5	Ohio	4-0
6	Alabama	4-0
7	Minnesota	4-0
8	Kansas State	4-0
9	South Carolina	4-0
10	Rutgers	4-0
11	Ohio State	4-0
12	Georgia	4-0
13	Mississippi State	4-0
14	Northwestern	4-0
15	Louisville	4-0
16	Stanford	3-0
17	LSU	4-0
18	Iowa State	3-0
19	West Virginia	3-0
20	Arizona State	3-1
21	Texas	3-0
22	Arizona	3-1
23	Texas Tech	3-0
24	North Carolina State	3-1
25	Miami (FL)	3-1
26	Clemson	3-1
27	Michigan State	3-1
28	Utah State	3-1
29	Wisconsin	3-1
30	Ball State	3-1
31	USC	3-1
32	Toledo	3-1
33	San Jose State	3-1
34	Ole Miss	3-1
35	Tennessee	3-1
36	Nevada	3-1
37	Louisiana Tech	3-0
38	TCU	3-0
39	Baylor	3-0
40	UCLA	3-1
41	Tulsa	3-1
42	Northern Illinois	3-1
43	Wake Forest	3-1
44	Duke	3-1
45	Nebraska	3-1
46	Virginia Tech	3-1
47	Oregon State	2-0
48	Western Kentucky	3-1
49	Missouri	2-2
50	Central Michigan	2-1
51	Boise State	2-1
52	Purdue	2-1
53	North Carolina	2-2
54	Cincinnati	2-0
55	South Florida	2-2
56	Oklahoma	2-1
57	Western Michigan	2-2
58	Illinois	2-2
59	Virginia	2-2
60	Iowa	2-2
60	Washington	2-1
62	Oklahoma State	2-1
63	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-1
64	Texas A&M	2-1
65	Marshall	2-2
66	Utah	2-2
67	Pittsburgh	2-2
68	UCF	2-1
69	Georgia Tech	2-2
70	Indiana	2-1
71	Penn State	2-2
72	Kent State	2-1
73	San Diego State	2-2
74	New Mexico	2-2
75	East Carolina	2-2
76	Michigan	2-2
77	Miami (OH)	2-2
78	Connecticut	2-2
79	Middle Tennessee	2-1
80	Arkansas State	2-2
81	Troy	2-2
82	Fresno State	2-2
83	Maryland	2-2
84	Brigham Young	2-2
85	Washington State	2-2
86	Syracuse	1-3
87	Kentucky	1-3
88	California	1-3
89	Hawaii	1-2
90	Auburn	1-3
91	Boston College	1-2
92	Vanderbilt	1-3
93	Temple	1-2
94	Navy	1-2
95	Southern Methodist	1-2
96	Kansas	1-3
97	Buffalo	1-2
98	UTEP	1-3
99	Rice	1-3
100	Florida Atlantic	1-3
101	Colorado State	1-3
102	Wyoming	1-3
103	Bowling Green	1-3
104	North Texas	1-3
105	Florida International	1-3
106	Louisiana-Monroe	1-2
107	Arkansas	1-3
108	UNLV	1-3
109	New Mexico State	1-3
110	Air Force	1-2
111	Akron	1-3
112	Colorado	1-3
113	Tulane	0-3
114	UAB	0-3
115	Eastern Michigan	0-4
116	Houston	0-3
117	Army	0-3
118	Southern Miss	0-3
119	Memphis	0-4
120	Idaho	0-4

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Houston over Atlanta

New York moved up to being the strongest team in the NFC, and 3rd overall, but Atlanta is 2-0 in a weaker division, meaning they are still more likely to make the playoffs, thanks in no small part to the drubbing the Panthers took last night, keeping them as the most likely to make the Superbowl on the NFC side.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	2-0	69.886	80.625	64.106	35.069	18.930	10.275
SD	2-0	63.472	77.892	61.028	33.067	17.680	9.519
NYG	2-1	33.007	52.509	37.634	20.182	10.786	5.626
BAL	1-1	41.711	56.017	39.162	20.538	10.695	5.654
SEA	1-1	19.067	39.036	26.271	13.764	7.209	3.687
NE	1-1	31.965	49.378	33.940	17.503	8.966	4.671
ATL	2-0	57.692	66.440	48.694	25.372	13.161	6.682
SF	2-0	34.931	56.513	40.928	21.108	10.867	5.458
ARI	2-0	32.841	52.348	36.566	18.283	9.136	4.465
CHI	1-1	25.909	36.764	23.707	11.792	5.853	2.854
DEN	1-1	24.531	45.230	29.142	14.188	6.912	3.420
GB	1-1	28.778	38.331	24.446	12.104	5.979	2.897
PIT	1-1	30.509	44.629	28.592	13.880	6.722	3.321
WAS	1-1	19.532	32.398	20.952	10.298	5.052	2.429
NYJ	1-1	24.679	38.667	24.334	11.680	5.591	2.729
PHI	2-0	34.042	49.754	34.425	16.824	8.208	3.930
MIA	1-1	24.204	39.543	24.710	11.813	5.631	2.746
MIN	1-1	23.191	32.705	20.635	9.977	4.807	2.278
STL	1-1	13.161	26.834	16.700	8.056	3.888	1.836
TB	1-1	25.393	35.741	22.065	10.625	5.108	2.411
BUF	1-1	19.152	34.856	21.506	10.130	4.761	2.289
DET	1-1	22.122	30.930	18.967	9.016	4.278	1.994
CLE	0-2	10.399	18.608	10.542	4.818	2.208	1.032
NO	0-2	8.444	13.150	7.306	3.378	1.560	0.705
IND	1-1	17.874	33.024	19.241	8.552	3.813	1.733
DAL	1-1	13.420	23.234	13.764	6.234	2.820	1.251
CIN	1-1	17.381	29.538	16.808	7.364	3.227	1.447
JAC	0-2	6.130	14.955	7.794	3.334	1.439	0.634
KC	0-2	6.931	14.104	7.483	3.207	1.381	0.606
OAK	0-2	5.066	11.740	6.004	2.531	1.077	0.466
CAR	1-2	8.471	13.312	6.938	2.989	1.287	0.543
TEN	0-2	6.109	11.192	5.610	2.325	0.969	0.411

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]

Diamond Giveaway Winnings, Part II

[Part I]
I only paid for 25 cards to be delivered, and showed you the "rest" in the last post. Now here are the best, completely subjectively and based on my own opinion.

1954 Topps #118 Carl Scheib
1958 Topps #287 Sam Jones
1967 Topps #279 Frank Linzy
1979 Topps #181 Mike Garman
1980 Topps #554 Art Howe
1984 Topps #690 Jack Clark

So what do these 6 guys have in common to put them in the "best" category? They all played for the Cardinals, even if it was brief for some. The '54 Scheib up there really hosed up my perfect grid for scanning, and doesn't fit in any sleeves I have. Such is what we'll put up with for a nearly 60 year old card. And with Art Howe we've got a well known manager, a featured character of Moneyball, a former Cardinal, and the Tequila Sunrise Astros jersey, all in one card. He also looks a little like John Cleese. Finally, I can always use another Jack Clark card.

2011 Topps - Diamond Die Cuts #DDC-48

Oh yeah, I can't forget card #25. These Diamond Die-Cuts really don't scan nearly as nicely as they look in person. If one was made of one of your favorite players, I highly suggest tracking one down.

That's it for the Diamond Giveaway for me. I've pulled a few Golden Giveaway cards this year, but haven't redeemed them yet. I think I'll wait and see how obsessively I buy 2012 Update and then evaluate if I want to trade them off or try for more fabulous prizes.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 2, Final

Houston over Atlanta

Denver was highly ranked along with Atlanta, so the win vaulted them to the top of the NFC. I guess week 2 is a little early for words like vaulted. So far, Tennessee looks like the biggest loser, with a 0.4% chance of winning it all.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	2-0	69.899	80.638	64.105	35.071	18.931	10.353
SD	2-0	63.478	77.468	60.466	32.758	17.515	9.508
BAL	1-1	41.718	56.485	39.636	20.788	10.826	5.766
SEA	1-1	18.418	38.348	25.870	13.657	7.220	3.697
NE	1-1	31.964	49.379	33.941	17.501	8.966	4.705
ATL	2-0	51.005	62.628	46.406	24.391	12.768	6.484
SF	2-0	35.695	57.710	42.153	21.907	11.382	5.721
ARI	2-0	32.764	52.655	36.989	18.631	9.404	4.598
CHI	1-1	25.097	36.062	23.403	11.739	5.880	2.868
DEN	1-1	24.528	44.593	28.656	13.952	6.797	3.390
GB	1-1	29.560	39.361	25.336	12.639	6.292	3.051
PIT	1-1	30.509	45.146	29.040	14.106	6.833	3.404
WAS	1-1	24.000	35.194	22.803	11.273	5.560	2.674
NYJ	1-1	24.684	38.651	24.332	11.681	5.591	2.756
PHI	2-0	40.787	53.079	36.961	18.184	8.914	4.263
MIA	1-1	24.197	39.524	24.711	11.818	5.636	2.771
CAR	1-1	20.037	32.523	20.673	10.184	5.013	2.396
MIN	1-1	23.207	32.914	20.946	10.213	4.970	2.357
NYG	1-1	18.883	30.995	19.697	9.598	4.667	2.210
STL	1-1	13.123	27.066	16.957	8.246	4.018	1.897
TB	1-1	21.943	33.446	21.046	10.229	4.967	2.345
BUF	1-1	19.155	34.849	21.500	10.126	4.763	2.308
DET	1-1	22.136	31.126	19.253	9.230	4.417	2.058
CLE	0-2	10.396	18.913	10.741	4.909	2.248	1.059
NO	0-2	7.014	12.170	6.882	3.210	1.497	0.677
IND	1-1	17.865	33.023	19.233	8.544	3.809	1.747
DAL	1-1	16.330	24.723	14.625	6.669	3.033	1.345
CIN	1-1	17.376	29.962	17.106	7.496	3.283	1.484
JAC	0-2	6.128	14.949	7.788	3.332	1.436	0.637
KC	0-2	6.927	13.783	7.295	3.129	1.348	0.595
OAK	0-2	5.067	11.437	5.835	2.462	1.047	0.457
TEN	0-2	6.108	11.201	5.614	2.328	0.971	0.417

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Houston over San Francisco

With most of the week 2 games out of the way, I went ahead and ran another simulation. Houston is now better than a 10 to 1 shot to win it all. My Rams actually saw their chances at a Division championship reduced despite their narrow victory, because Seattle and San Francisco won big, and even Arizona stunned the New England by a slim margin. I wonder when the last time the NFC West went 4-0 in a week was, if it's ever happened in the 11 year history of the 8-division format.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	2-0	69.821	80.177	63.415	34.631	18.668	10.251
SD	2-0	57.894	75.851	58.570	31.661	16.915	9.216
BAL	1-1	41.671	55.821	38.953	20.403	10.610	5.672
SEA	1-1	18.375	38.785	26.295	13.934	7.406	3.786
NE	1-1	31.880	48.562	33.244	17.119	8.763	4.621
SF	2-0	35.618	58.143	42.697	22.265	11.642	5.847
ATL	1-0	41.083	51.540	36.190	18.531	9.448	4.666
DEN	1-0	31.792	54.586	37.065	18.372	9.098	4.635
ARI	2-0	32.917	53.327	37.767	19.096	9.692	4.734
CHI	1-1	25.066	36.346	23.803	12.007	6.042	2.940
GB	1-1	29.513	39.615	25.758	12.916	6.463	3.130
PIT	1-1	30.603	44.526	28.429	13.788	6.671	3.339
WAS	1-1	23.999	35.610	23.374	11.616	5.752	2.765
NYJ	1-1	24.712	38.078	23.864	11.442	5.469	2.708
PHI	2-0	40.782	53.512	37.724	18.663	9.191	4.393
MIA	1-1	24.231	38.901	24.211	11.557	5.504	2.719
CAR	1-1	23.968	34.922	22.349	11.058	5.459	2.607
MIN	1-1	23.163	33.150	21.298	10.436	5.103	2.416
NYG	1-1	18.888	31.427	20.210	9.902	4.838	2.290
STL	1-1	13.090	27.408	17.284	8.440	4.136	1.953
TB	1-1	26.268	36.088	22.820	11.139	5.420	2.555
BUF	1-1	19.178	34.214	21.046	9.899	4.646	2.260
DET	1-1	22.258	31.600	19.762	9.528	4.586	2.136
CLE	0-2	10.376	18.454	10.432	4.762	2.179	1.033
NO	0-2	8.681	13.454	7.629	3.575	1.671	0.756
IND	1-1	17.906	32.464	18.847	8.369	3.723	1.714
DAL	1-1	16.331	25.072	15.039	6.895	3.150	1.398
CIN	1-1	17.350	29.339	16.661	7.293	3.192	1.451
JAC	0-2	6.146	14.560	7.573	3.237	1.393	0.620
KC	0-2	5.933	12.843	6.781	2.906	1.249	0.555
OAK	0-2	4.381	10.715	5.458	2.300	0.977	0.428
TEN	0-2	6.127	10.911	5.452	2.262	0.943	0.406

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Ranking, Week 3

LSU pays a hefty price for slumming it against #118 Idaho this week, and they drop to #19 among the 23 3-0 Teams. Meanwhile, Stanford takes on the previously undefeated USC, and reaps the benefits of a big win. Of course, there's plenty of time for these rankings to change, and I expect LSU to reach at least near the top again.

I'll also point out that #65 TCU, at 2-0, is ranked below lots of 2-1 teams, including Miami all the way up at a tie for #24. Strength of Schedule plays a big part in these rankings, not only to break ties among the undefeated teams, but to show which teams are playing such an easy schedule they haven't really proven themselves better than teams with lesser records.

Finally, Missouri is clawing their way back up, sitting at #38 today, up from #85 last week.

1	Stanford	3-0
2	Iowa State	3-0
3	Arizona	3-0
4	Alabama	3-0
5	Rutgers	3-0
6	Notre Dame	3-0
7	Florida	3-0
8	Georgia	3-0
9	Ohio State	3-0
10	Northwestern	3-0
11	Oregon	3-0
12	Clemson	3-0
13	Kansas State	3-0
14	Texas	3-0
15	Mississippi State	3-0
16	South Carolina	3-0
17	Ohio	3-0
18	Texas Tech	3-0
19	LSU	3-0
20	Florida State	3-0
21	UCLA	3-0
22	Louisville	3-0
23	Minnesota	3-0
24	West Virginia	2-0
24	Miami (FL)	2-1
26	Iowa	2-1
27	Ole Miss	2-1
28	Arizona State	2-1
29	South Florida	2-1
30	Cincinnati	2-0
31	Utah State	2-1
32	USC	2-1
33	Washington	2-1
34	Michigan State	2-1
35	Purdue	2-1
36	North Carolina State	2-1
37	Tennessee	2-1
38	Missouri	2-1
39	Oklahoma	2-0
40	Oklahoma State	2-1
41	Utah	2-1
42	Virginia	2-1
43	Ball State	2-1
44	Wisconsin	2-1
45	Nevada	2-1
46	Baylor	2-0
47	Duke	2-1
48	Georgia Tech	2-1
49	UCF	2-1
50	East Carolina	2-1
51	Western Kentucky	2-1
52	San Diego State	2-1
53	Connecticut	2-1
54	Michigan	2-1
55	Northern Illinois	2-1
56	Louisiana Tech	2-0
57	San Jose State	2-1
58	Brigham Young	2-1
59	Wake Forest	2-1
60	Indiana	2-1
61	Toledo	2-1
62	Virginia Tech	2-1
63	Nebraska	2-1
64	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-1
65	TCU	2-0
66	Illinois	2-1
67	Maryland	2-1
68	Middle Tennessee	2-1
69	Tulsa	2-1
70	Washington State	2-1
71	Fresno State	2-1
72	Oregon State	1-0
73	Pittsburgh	1-2
74	Syracuse	1-2
75	Auburn	1-2
76	Texas A&M	1-1
77	Temple	1-1
78	North Carolina	1-2
79	California	1-2
80	Boise State	1-1
81	Vanderbilt	1-2
82	Buffalo	1-1
83	Boston College	1-2
84	UTEP	1-2
85	North Texas	1-2
86	Marshall	1-2
87	Hawaii	1-1
88	Air Force	1-1
89	Kentucky	1-2
90	Rice	1-2
91	New Mexico State	1-2
92	Central Michigan	1-1
93	Louisiana-Monroe	1-1
94	New Mexico	1-2
95	Western Michigan	1-2
96	Penn State	1-2
97	Florida International	1-2
98	Arkansas	1-2
99	Troy	1-2
100	Kent State	1-1
101	Kansas	1-2
102	Bowling Green	1-2
103	Miami (OH)	1-2
104	Arkansas State	1-2
105	Southern Methodist	1-2
106	Florida Atlantic	1-2
107	Colorado State	1-2
108	Akron	1-2
109	Tulane	0-2
110	Eastern Michigan	0-3
111	Army	0-2
112	Southern Miss	0-2
113	Navy	0-2
114	Wyoming	0-3
115	UAB	0-2
116	Houston	0-3
117	UNLV	0-3
118	Idaho	0-3
119	Memphis	0-3
120	Colorado	0-3

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]

Diamond Giveaway Winnings, Part I

Here's a nice orderly view of 18 of the cards I won in the 2011 Topps Diamond Giveaway, ordered from oldest to newest. There's no overarching theme to these, except that they are the leftovers after picking 7 for my next post.

1958 Topps #222 Bud Daley
1958 Topps #422 Norm Zauchin
1964 Topps #323 John Buzhardt
1972 Topps #57 Bob Oliver
1973 Topps #129 Terry Forster
1975 Topps #644 Bill Fahey
1976 Topps #221 Jim Todd
1976 Topps #576 Maximino Leon
1976 Topps #647 Ramon Hernandez

These were mostly guys I haven't even heard of, despite being a baseball history nerd. But, cards older than me are always cool to get. Also, these are apparently the first 1976 Topps cards in my collection.

1978 Topps #280 Buddy Bell
1978 Topps #590 Bobby Murcer
1979 Topps #139 Luis Pujols
1979 Topps #683 Dan Meyer
1981 Topps #229 Rollie Fingers
1983 Topps #305 Larry Bowa
1983 Topps #533 Luis Salazar
1984 Topps #434 Harold Baines
1984 Topps #454 Joe Beckwith

This group definitely had more guys I know. I learned of Buddy Bell originally because the announcers would incessantly talk about the 3 generations of the Bell family in baseball when David Bell was on the Cardinals. Rollie Fingers is well known of course, and his signature facial hair is featured on this card. The Larry Bowa may be headed TTM to try to get a signature for a big Cubs-fan friend of mine, who idolized Bowa as a kid. Harold Baines, of course, played for many years, and in multiple stints with the White Sox and Orioles. I'll bet he's one of the few guys to have his number retired by a team, then play for them again 12 years later.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

The Green Bay-Chicago game didn't affect the final projection at all, but it did severely drop Chicago's odds. They were the second leading NFC team, and now fall somewhere in the middle. Of course, we're a week and a game into the season, so everyone is still prone to wild swings.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	1-0	49.589	61.507	44.492	23.322	12.164	6.337
HOU	1-0	47.982	60.434	43.852	22.941	11.944	6.217
NE	1-0	38.598	57.059	41.097	21.454	11.168	5.800
NYJ	1-0	38.474	56.305	39.962	20.537	10.533	5.396
ATL	1-0	36.364	49.699	34.614	17.760	9.108	4.648
DEN	1-0	36.178	54.182	38.296	19.639	10.037	5.129
TB	1-0	38.018	51.545	35.862	18.352	9.390	4.780
SD	1-0	38.418	55.688	39.322	20.107	10.241	5.222
DAL	1-0	32.625	48.397	33.437	16.961	8.594	4.339
CHI	1-1	19.989	33.747	22.053	11.153	5.636	2.839
SF	1-0	36.352	49.819	34.424	17.404	8.788	4.427
GB	1-1	23.582	36.781	23.914	12.023	6.041	3.024
WAS	1-0	29.902	46.176	31.631	15.879	7.965	3.982
ARI	1-0	35.343	48.091	32.676	16.408	8.228	4.117
DET	1-0	28.608	43.865	29.936	14.946	7.457	3.709
MIN	1-0	27.821	42.097	28.515	14.189	7.054	3.496
PHI	1-0	27.274	42.261	28.361	14.014	6.924	3.413
CLE	0-1	20.862	32.404	20.346	9.907	4.820	2.353
JAC	0-1	20.437	31.502	19.665	9.508	4.598	2.232
STL	0-1	15.283	23.410	14.183	6.855	3.317	1.599
SEA	0-1	13.022	22.015	13.270	6.377	3.066	1.472
NO	0-1	14.418	22.641	13.661	6.569	3.163	1.517
NYG	0-1	10.199	19.803	11.862	5.641	2.685	1.275
OAK	0-1	11.740	23.455	13.995	6.586	3.102	1.467
CAR	0-1	11.200	19.652	11.600	5.470	2.582	1.216
PIT	0-1	16.728	25.687	15.228	7.151	3.360	1.584
KC	0-1	13.664	25.423	15.393	7.219	3.388	1.598
BUF	0-1	11.031	22.718	13.478	6.312	2.958	1.391
IND	0-1	16.287	25.981	15.547	7.228	3.361	1.568
TEN	0-1	15.294	23.452	13.653	6.292	2.900	1.344
MIA	0-1	11.897	21.806	12.704	5.843	2.692	1.244
CIN	0-1	12.821	22.397	12.971	5.952	2.735	1.264

[Week 1]

eBay Wins #43

I've been scraping the bottom of the eBay barrel for penny cards again. This time, I get a former Cardinal, and the only River City Rascal with his number retired, Jack Clark.

1990 Donruss #128 Jack Clark

I don't actually remember Jack as a Cardinal, but I remember his managerial stint with River City, and he still does the Cardinals games on Fox Sports. At least I think he does, I ditched cable a few years ago and now get to see about 6 games a year from home, just the ones Fox airs nationally.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2016
Total Spent	$38.57
Per Card	1.913 cents

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

I'm back for another year of projecting the Superbowl match up. You can read last year's Week 1 post for details on how this works, but it essentially boils down to using points for and points against to simulate the remaining games of the year stochastically, running a few million iterations, and reporting the percentage of times each team progressed to each level of the playoffs.

For the second consecutive year, Baltimore is the Week 1 favorite, because they had a dominating win. These percentages do take the toughness of the schedule into account, but it also assumes that the games so far show the true strength of a team, which a bad game could underestimate. So fear not, Carolina, your 1.2% chance of winning it all can still improve, as can my Rams' 1.6%.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	1-0	49.623	61.510	44.481	23.315	12.160	6.334
HOU	1-0	47.947	60.515	43.937	22.983	11.971	6.229
NE	1-0	38.596	57.033	41.070	21.453	11.178	5.797
CHI	1-0	33.173	49.089	34.473	17.829	9.206	4.735
NYJ	1-0	38.497	56.304	39.951	20.536	10.519	5.384
ATL	1-0	36.299	49.643	34.462	17.676	9.060	4.627
DEN	1-0	36.196	54.171	38.285	19.630	10.034	5.124
TB	1-0	38.012	51.511	35.719	18.277	9.339	4.752
SD	1-0	38.438	55.669	39.315	20.096	10.236	5.214
DAL	1-0	32.481	48.235	33.219	16.846	8.529	4.302
SF	1-0	36.043	49.408	33.931	17.153	8.654	4.357
ARI	1-0	35.512	48.280	32.717	16.409	8.227	4.116
WAS	1-0	29.919	46.130	31.495	15.796	7.920	3.961
DET	1-0	27.835	44.242	29.995	14.967	7.472	3.720
MIN	1-0	27.065	42.422	28.582	14.209	7.063	3.501
PHI	1-0	27.268	42.211	28.245	13.942	6.874	3.387
CLE	0-1	20.849	32.367	20.315	9.888	4.807	2.344
JAC	0-1	20.434	31.606	19.744	9.553	4.615	2.240
STL	0-1	15.355	23.497	14.201	6.854	3.317	1.604
SEA	0-1	13.089	22.123	13.301	6.391	3.072	1.474
NO	0-1	14.582	22.808	13.723	6.595	3.175	1.522
GB	0-1	11.927	20.937	12.550	5.992	2.856	1.358
NYG	0-1	10.333	19.940	11.904	5.657	2.691	1.275
OAK	0-1	11.717	23.393	13.947	6.570	3.092	1.460
CAR	0-1	11.106	19.523	11.483	5.406	2.547	1.200
PIT	0-1	16.707	25.639	15.185	7.128	3.350	1.578
KC	0-1	13.648	25.366	15.350	7.201	3.378	1.589
BUF	0-1	11.018	22.656	13.445	6.291	2.951	1.387
IND	0-1	16.367	26.150	15.656	7.275	3.384	1.579
TEN	0-1	15.252	23.489	13.684	6.308	2.907	1.348
MIA	0-1	11.889	21.755	12.676	5.829	2.687	1.243
CIN	0-1	12.822	22.378	12.958	5.946	2.732	1.257

A Trade Post is in Order, Part III

[Part I]
[Part II]

Thanks to my obsessive need to scan and post every insert card I receive, I got an email from The Angels, In Order about the Tyler Chatwood in this contest win post.

Here's the final part of my trade.

1997 Donruss Preferred
#45 Brian Jordan

I need one of these pullover warmup jerseys from the 90s.

2002 Upper Deck Victory
#599 Chuck Finley

Chuck Finley in the now seldom-seen Sunday home cap. It used to just be the Sunday cap.

2005 Topps Update
#UH117 Reggie Sanders

2005 NLDS cards in a 2005 set. I wonder how late these had to come out to manage that.

2011 Heritage
#26 Josh Thole
#328 Raul Ibanez
News Flashbacks #NF-10 Robinson Enshrined in Cooperstown

 My 2011 Heritage wantlist is quickly dwindling, so even 2 base and an insert are exciting at this point.

2012 Heritage
#147 World Series Game 6
#331 World Series Foes

I don't think 2012 Heritage is on my wantlist yet, because I'm still planning to buy some more, but I can always use 2 more cards commemorating last year's great World Series, especially game 6, which I stayed up for and found out the next morning most of my friends had given up on and went to bed, thinking we lost.

Then Albert left for the Angels. Though I'd transfer anywhere you wanted me to go for that kind of money, so I can't hassle him really.

Thanks to The Angels, In Order for the trade, and go follow his blog while you're reading so close to the helpful link I've left you here.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

LSU retains its #1 ranking it held after last year's championship loss (see this post for why they finished #1). The rankings are still rather preliminary, but I thought it was interesting that after just 2 weeks, and only 1 game by some teams, there are only 2 ties in the rankings, at #68 and #72.

On a Mizzou note, they took the lead early over Georgia and had a lead late into the 3nd quarter, but couldn't quite hold it together. I blame the lack of local St. Louis coverage, preventing me from watching the game on TV.

1	LSU	2-0
2	Stanford	2-0
3	Alabama	2-0
4	UCLA	2-0
5	Iowa State	2-0
6	Arizona State	2-0
7	Texas Tech	2-0
8	Georgia	2-0
9	Arizona	2-0
10	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-0
11	Notre Dame	2-0
12	Oregon	2-0
13	South Carolina	2-0
14	Wake Forest	2-0
15	Kansas State	2-0
16	Louisville	2-0
17	Michigan State	2-0
18	Ohio	2-0
19	Maryland	2-0
20	Ohio State	2-0
21	Virginia Tech	2-0
22	Tennessee	2-0
23	Rutgers	2-0
24	Brigham Young	2-0
25	Virginia	2-0
26	Utah State	2-0
27	South Florida	2-0
28	Florida	2-0
29	Ole Miss	2-0
30	Clemson	2-0
31	Minnesota	2-0
32	Texas	2-0
33	Indiana	2-0
34	USC	2-0
35	Northwestern	2-0
36	Mississippi State	2-0
37	Oklahoma	2-0
38	Florida State	2-0
39	Purdue	1-1
40	East Carolina	1-1
41	Baylor	1-0
42	Michigan	1-1
43	Louisiana-Monroe	1-0
44	Oregon State	1-0
45	Rice	1-1
46	West Virginia	1-0
47	Iowa	1-1
48	Illinois	1-1
49	North Carolina	1-1
50	Temple	1-1
51	Washington	1-1
52	Buffalo	1-1
53	San Jose State	1-1
54	North Texas	1-1
55	Duke	1-1
56	Miami (FL)	1-1
57	Kentucky	1-1
58	North Carolina State	1-1
59	Georgia Tech	1-1
60	Middle Tennessee	1-1
61	New Mexico State	1-1
62	Central Michigan	1-1
63	Nevada	1-1
64	Utah	1-1
65	Washington State	1-1
66	Nebraska	1-1
67	Western Kentucky	1-1
68	Tulsa	1-1
68	Troy	1-1
70	Southern Methodist	1-1
71	Air Force	1-1
72	Toledo	1-1
72	Fresno State	1-1
74	Cincinnati	1-0
75	Arkansas	1-1
76	Oklahoma State	1-1
77	Kansas	1-1
78	Wisconsin	1-1
79	Northern Illinois	1-1
80	Western Michigan	1-1
81	Marshall	1-1
82	Louisiana Tech	1-0
83	TCU	1-0
84	New Mexico	1-1
85	Missouri	1-1
86	Ball State	1-1
87	Arkansas State	1-1
88	UCF	1-1
89	Miami (OH)	1-1
90	Bowling Green	1-1
91	San Diego State	1-1
92	Colorado State	1-1
93	Boston College	1-1
94	Kent State	1-1
95	Connecticut	1-1
96	California	1-1
97	Florida Atlantic	1-1
98	Florida International	1-1
99	Navy	0-1
100	Boise State	0-1
101	Texas A&M	0-1
102	Hawaii	0-1
103	Penn State	0-2
104	Vanderbilt	0-2
105	Auburn	0-2
106	UTEP	0-2
107	Syracuse	0-2
108	Southern Miss	0-1
109	UAB	0-1
110	Tulane	0-2
111	UNLV	0-2
112	Wyoming	0-2
113	Army	0-1
114	Pittsburgh	0-2
115	Eastern Michigan	0-2
116	Houston	0-2
117	Akron	0-2
118	Idaho	0-2
119	Memphis	0-2
120	Colorado	0-2

2012 History

Week 1

A Trade Post is in Order, Part II

[Part I]

Thanks to my obsessive need to scan and post every insert card I receive, I got an email from The Angels, In Order about the Tyler Chatwood in this contest win post.

Here's the next part of my trade.

2008 Upper Deck Documentary
#854 Chris Duncan

 The back of this card talks about Braden Looper, and doesn't even mention Chris Duncan. This is an odd, 4000+ card set.

2008 Upper Deck First Edition
#50 Adam Wainwright
#51 Joel Pineiro
#57 Rick Ankiel

2007 Upper Deck Future Stars
#88 Chris Carpenter
#89 Chris Duncan

 I've mentioned before I'm not sure why this is called Future Stars with Carpenter well-established by 2007. And Chris Duncan? He's been in local sports radio for a few years now.

2011 Opening Day - Mascots
#M-8 Dinger

Now we're on to the wantlist stuff. In 2011 I bought a lot of Opening Day since it's cheap, and I've decided to collect the set and the inserts. Here's the Rockies' slightly-too-cute mascot.

2011 Opening Day - Superstar Celebrations
#SC-5 Ubaldo Jiminez
#SC-11 Jimmy Rollins
#SC-17 Prince Fielder
#SC-9 Nick Markakis

Seeing these cards together gets me antsy for the end-of-season pennant races and the playoffs. When these celebrations seem to happen more often due to the heightened sense of urgency to win.

There's just one more chunk of this trade to go.

A Trade Post is in Order, Part I

Can't...resist...bad...puns...

Thanks to my obsessive need to scan and post every insert card I receive, I got an email from The Angels, In Order about the Tyler Chatwood in this contest win post. He sent me a pile of Cardinals, and - I must admit - I still owe him his card once I get a big enough pile of Angels together to send along. Here's the first part of the trade.

1992 Pinnacle
#6 Ozzie Smith
#69 Tom Pagnozzi
#186 Omar Olivares
#195 Lee Smith
#239 Jose Oquendo
#341 Jose DeLeon

 Now I have to try to get a full team set from 1992 Pinnacle. I can't have this many and not try for more!

1992 Topps Kids
#26 Pedro Guerrero

Topps Kids is one of the sets I like for some unknown reason. I think I'm drawn to the simpler, cheaper, kid-targeted sets.

2002 Topps
#245 Jim Edmonds

I think this is the first 2002 Topps card I've owned. I took a little hiatus from 2000-2010 from collecting.

2004 Donruss Studio
#179 Dan Haren

This card hurts me. To think, Dan Haren could still be in St. Louis, along with Carpenter and Wainwright. Although, I think it's that same type of rotation the Cardinals desired that led him to be traded for Mark Mulder in the first place. He's now with the Angels, so maybe I'll be sending one of him back.