Superbowl XLVI Projection, Wildcard Weekend

Since there's no Monday game, and no Sunday night game, and the BCS Championship is tomorrow, I've moved my NFL post to Sunday this week.

Green Bay over New England

This prediction feels more right than San Francisco, but getting to it is sort of odd. San Francisco is still "better" than Green Bay, but Green Bay is going to have an easier time getting to the NFC Championship (80%!). Also, if I were simply predicting the winner, the answer would be New England, with a 22% chance to Green Bay's 21%, but, like I stated way back in Week 2, my stated method is to pick the likeliest winner of each conference, then the winner between the two of them. New England has a 48% chance to represent the AFC, due in part to Pittsburgh's loss today, as they were the next best team.

Now, for the Divisional round playoffs:

New England over Denver (87%)
Green Bay over New York (80%)
Baltimore over Houston (53%)
San Francisco over New Orleans (52%)

This week I'll be rooting for Denver, Green Bay, Houston, and New Orleans. I find that mostly I'm rooting for the team I dislike least when the Rams aren't involved, as I don't really have another favorite team. I do legitimately like the Packers, dating back before the Rams were in St. Louis and Brett Favre was slinging passes. I'm also a little conflicted because of course I'd like to have my projections validated, but in the end I'd rather a team I like in the Superbowl than to have been right about who's going to be there.


First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

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