Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 2

After 2 full weeks and 100,000,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and playoffs, the Superbowl will be:

Detroit over Houston.

I don't think anyone would have seen that coming last year.

There is a curious hitch in the numbers this week.  Even though Detroit has a greater shot of getting to the Superbowl (16.47% to 16.26%) than Houston, and is a stronger team, Houston is more likely to win the Superbowl (8.77% to 8.76%).  What is likely happening is that Detroit is winning slightly more than half of the DET-HOU Superbowl matchups, but its next most likely opponents - New York, Buffalo, New England, Baltimore - are all stronger than Houston's alternative opponents - Washington, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Green Bay - with Tennessee also better than 3 of those 4.  Thus, I've tweaked my prediction style.  I'll determine the Superbowl participants from the top NFC and AFC teams (highest numbers in the "Semi" column), then match them against each other to determine the predicted winner.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	2-0	46.18	69.46	54.40	29.99	16.47	8.76
HOU	2-0	61.14	73.30	56.17	30.43	16.26	8.77
NYJ	2-0	33.71	58.56	43.73	23.26	12.35	6.59
BUF	2-0	31.62	56.68	41.81	21.98	11.54	6.09
NE	2-0	32.45	57.40	42.01	21.72	11.23	5.85
BAL	1-1	33.66	46.48	31.11	15.79	7.96	4.09
WAS	2-0	46.47	65.05	48.95	25.42	13.04	6.56
TEN	1-1	23.33	41.10	26.76	13.48	6.76	3.45
SF	1-1	42.89	52.34	34.28	17.38	8.78	4.35
PHI	1-1	22.46	38.94	26.24	13.33	6.73	3.34
GB	2-0	34.25	60.45	43.74	22.09	11.18	5.52
CIN	1-1	29.01	41.15	26.53	13.02	6.36	3.17
NO	1-1	36.06	45.63	29.28	14.51	7.17	3.49
ARI	1-1	39.04	49.28	31.44	15.54	7.66	3.71
CHI	1-1	14.80	32.31	20.76	10.08	4.91	2.33
DAL	1-1	17.72	33.41	21.72	10.51	5.06	2.39
OAK	1-1	34.18	42.63	25.78	12.15	5.71	2.75
DEN	1-1	27.66	37.97	23.09	10.83	5.07	2.43
CLE	1-1	19.57	31.68	19.49	9.14	4.27	2.04
NYG	1-1	13.36	28.06	17.66	8.46	4.03	1.89
TB	1-1	28.29	37.40	22.79	10.81	5.12	2.39
PIT	1-1	17.76	28.94	17.48	8.07	3.71	1.75
SD	1-1	28.96	36.57	21.31	9.74	4.44	2.08
MIN	0-2	4.77	12.30	7.12	3.28	1.52	0.68
ATL	1-1	23.44	32.24	19.00	8.68	3.96	1.78
CAR	0-2	12.21	16.49	8.94	4.07	1.86	0.83
MIA	0-2	2.23	6.52	3.54	1.54	0.68	0.30
STL	0-2	10.27	14.24	7.34	3.17	1.37	0.58
IND	0-2	4.02	8.37	4.22	1.77	0.75	0.32
JAC	1-1	11.52	20.20	10.90	4.59	1.92	0.82
SEA	0-2	7.80	12.40	6.34	2.68	1.13	0.47
KC	0-2	9.20	12.47	6.08	2.48	1.01	0.42