Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 17

San Francisco over New England

The prediction has stayed consistent since the end of Week 15. I do worry a bit that Green Bay's better than they look, they just didn't need to care after 12-0 or so.  The percentages in the WC column show the chances of this weekend's games.  To wit:

Pittsburgh over Denver (85%)
New Orleans over Detroit (69%)
Houston over Cincinnati (68%)
Atlanta over New York (61%)

Other than Houston, I think those are the teams I'm rooting for this weekend. I never liked the Giants much, although they did beat the Pats a few years ago, winning them some points in my mind. I'm also a big Tony Gonzalez fan.  I'm glad to see he's back for another year. A good friend of mine is a Pittsburgh fan, so I guess I've kind of adopted them as my AFC team. I'm fairly ambivalent about New Orleans and Detroit. As a former divisional rival in the old pre-realignment NFC West, I rooted against the Saints for years (and the Falcons for that matter), but now I think I'd rather not see the badly-behaved Ndamukong Suh get anywhere in the playoffs this year. As for Cincinnati, I don't know, maybe I like tigers or something?

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	13-3	+	+	+	59.962	36.103	21.938
NO	13-3	+	+	69.389	33.256	19.423	11.415
GB	15-1	+	+	+	72.304	34.655	19.532
NE	13-3	+	+	+	63.217	34.755	16.365
PIT	12-4	-	+	85.275	40.787	21.292	9.313
BAL	12-4	+	+	+	53.320	26.409	11.412
HOU	10-6	+	+	67.886	32.127	14.612	5.943
DET	10-6	-	+	30.611	10.040	3.550	1.378
ATL	10-6	-	+	61.385	16.956	4.782	1.645
CIN	9-7	-	+	32.114	8.533	2.603	0.648
NYG	9-7	+	+	38.615	7.481	1.487	0.370
DEN	8-8	+	+	14.725	2.015	0.328	0.040

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)

First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)

First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)

First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)