Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 17

San Francisco over New England

The prediction has stayed consistent since the end of Week 15. I do worry a bit that Green Bay's better than they look, they just didn't need to care after 12-0 or so.  The percentages in the WC column show the chances of this weekend's games.  To wit:

Pittsburgh over Denver (85%)
New Orleans over Detroit (69%)
Houston over Cincinnati (68%)
Atlanta over New York (61%)

Other than Houston, I think those are the teams I'm rooting for this weekend. I never liked the Giants much, although they did beat the Pats a few years ago, winning them some points in my mind. I'm also a big Tony Gonzalez fan.  I'm glad to see he's back for another year. A good friend of mine is a Pittsburgh fan, so I guess I've kind of adopted them as my AFC team. I'm fairly ambivalent about New Orleans and Detroit. As a former divisional rival in the old pre-realignment NFC West, I rooted against the Saints for years (and the Falcons for that matter), but now I think I'd rather not see the badly-behaved Ndamukong Suh get anywhere in the playoffs this year. As for Cincinnati, I don't know, maybe I like tigers or something?

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

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