Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 9

San Francisco over Houston (just barely)

Houston's big win and Baltimore's narrow victory brought the Texans back to the top of the AFC.  Their chanced at the Super Bowl are just .04% greater than Baltimore, largely because they have a less competitive division to try to win.

San Francisco might doze off in a few weeks with no competition behind them either, or they might rest everyone and blast through the playoffs on fresh legs.

Finally, at the end of the chart, you see that Indy still has a chance at making the playoffs, but never made it to the Super Bowl in my 160 million simulations.  This doesn't mean they can't, of course, because once you're in the playoffs, anything could happen.  It just means that, right now, the chances are roughly less than 1 in 160 million.

Have I addressed here yet that I think the Rams could pull some shenanigans and wind up better off? If they could get someone to take on most of Bradford's contract, and wind up drafting a QB such as Luck, they'd probably upgrade for less money thanks to the new rookie pay rules.  Don't get me wrong, I like Sam, but I like winning football better, and there's a mild chance more money might buy us that.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	7-1	99.58	99.87	95.20	56.26	31.20	17.53
DET	6-2	20.93	80.43	56.05	29.69	15.73	8.58
HOU	6-3	95.49	96.29	73.28	42.43	23.56	12.24
BAL	6-2	55.11	86.89	73.67	42.38	23.52	12.19
GB	8-0	77.14	97.21	88.12	48.66	24.64	13.07
NO	6-3	69.19	86.55	52.98	25.50	12.87	6.68
CIN	6-2	33.92	68.55	53.43	27.55	14.03	6.71
BUF	5-3	34.37	63.30	43.84	21.00	9.95	4.48
PIT	6-3	10.88	42.45	28.02	13.06	6.14	2.71
NYJ	5-3	29.85	59.09	38.97	18.00	8.26	3.60
NE	5-3	35.77	65.53	44.02	20.20	9.17	3.96
CHI	5-3	1.93	21.60	11.61	4.74	2.01	0.88
PHI	3-5	14.73	24.95	11.12	4.29	1.74	0.74
ATL	5-3	27.03	62.48	28.67	11.12	4.50	1.92
NYG	6-2	75.41	82.61	41.34	15.50	6.03	2.49
SD	4-4	47.30	48.59	20.34	7.64	2.87	1.03
TEN	4-4	4.25	11.61	4.99	1.83	0.67	0.23
CAR	2-6	0.38	1.60	0.59	0.19	0.06	0.02
MIN	2-6	0.00	0.07	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
OAK	4-4	26.85	28.71	10.62	3.51	1.16	0.37
SEA	3-5	0.33	9.81	3.57	1.07	0.34	0.11
ARI	2-6	0.08	1.55	0.54	0.16	0.05	0.02
DAL	3-5	6.29	10.60	3.60	1.03	0.32	0.10
MIA	1-7	0.02	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
WAS	3-5	3.58	7.26	2.41	0.68	0.20	0.06
DEN	3-5	10.26	11.15	3.66	1.08	0.32	0.09
TB	4-4	3.40	13.40	4.16	1.10	0.31	0.09
CLE	3-5	0.09	0.62	0.21	0.06	0.02	0.00
KC	4-4	15.59	16.76	4.83	1.24	0.32	0.08
JAC	2-6	0.26	0.38	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00
STL	1-7	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
IND	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)