2011-11-18

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Houston over Green Bay

Ok, so the end result didn't change, but I think it's interested to see the effects of just one game compared to the end of Week 10.  Tim Tebow shocking the Jets really changed the potential fortunes for those two teams. The Jets dropped from 42% to under 26%, while the Broncos jumped from 20% to 32%.  The jump was so big because the Broncos weren't supposed to win this game.  Of course, each team's respective divisional rivals experienced inverse effects, with San Diego, Oakland, and even Kansas City seeing their playoff chances reduced, and New England, Buffalo, and yes, even the lowly Dolphins, getting a bump.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU7-394.78597.63885.29253.74732.71617.900
GB9-092.89898.39696.05459.73032.55218.302
SF8-199.61799.95597.96559.14431.99717.832
BAL6-345.86576.30563.05335.31718.4179.071
NO7-388.63495.60260.42927.63213.6326.910
DET6-34.70448.77629.93013.3416.3113.104
NE6-382.78792.99671.34434.83916.5477.377
CIN6-321.36548.08535.89317.7598.4023.740
CHI6-32.39851.55329.46412.1215.3922.499
PIT7-332.73373.42455.50226.68312.2265.330
PHI3-69.12713.3495.8132.0150.7710.310
ATL5-410.59850.31021.6337.4882.8861.162
TEN5-45.05533.96615.9906.4442.6370.996
NYJ5-53.90225.79011.4164.3861.7570.648
BUF5-413.23340.61220.5427.9323.1331.148
NYG6-363.82173.06932.50010.7443.8591.479
DAL4-525.27234.74214.5654.7121.6760.634
SD4-523.44625.55810.0143.4511.2090.397
OAK5-441.73645.91417.6835.7221.8760.577
SEA4-50.33222.2748.1232.2550.7030.231
MIA2-70.0790.3380.1200.0370.0130.004
ARI3-60.0503.3861.1540.3090.0940.030
DEN5-528.99832.19111.2173.2370.9600.265
CAR2-70.0490.2570.0830.0200.0060.002
WAS3-61.7803.2370.9780.2270.0590.017
MIN2-7-0.0060.0020.0000.0000.000
CLE3-60.0380.2000.0690.0180.0050.001
JAC3-60.1600.6520.1830.0470.0120.003
TB4-50.7205.0661.3030.2610.0600.014
KC4-55.8216.3311.6820.3800.0900.020
STL2-70.0000.0240.0050.0010.0000.000
IND0-10------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

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