Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Houston over Green Bay

Ok, so the end result didn't change, but I think it's interested to see the effects of just one game compared to the end of Week 10.  Tim Tebow shocking the Jets really changed the potential fortunes for those two teams. The Jets dropped from 42% to under 26%, while the Broncos jumped from 20% to 32%.  The jump was so big because the Broncos weren't supposed to win this game.  Of course, each team's respective divisional rivals experienced inverse effects, with San Diego, Oakland, and even Kansas City seeing their playoff chances reduced, and New England, Buffalo, and yes, even the lowly Dolphins, getting a bump.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	7-3	94.785	97.638	85.292	53.747	32.716	17.900
GB	9-0	92.898	98.396	96.054	59.730	32.552	18.302
SF	8-1	99.617	99.955	97.965	59.144	31.997	17.832
BAL	6-3	45.865	76.305	63.053	35.317	18.417	9.071
NO	7-3	88.634	95.602	60.429	27.632	13.632	6.910
DET	6-3	4.704	48.776	29.930	13.341	6.311	3.104
NE	6-3	82.787	92.996	71.344	34.839	16.547	7.377
CIN	6-3	21.365	48.085	35.893	17.759	8.402	3.740
CHI	6-3	2.398	51.553	29.464	12.121	5.392	2.499
PIT	7-3	32.733	73.424	55.502	26.683	12.226	5.330
PHI	3-6	9.127	13.349	5.813	2.015	0.771	0.310
ATL	5-4	10.598	50.310	21.633	7.488	2.886	1.162
TEN	5-4	5.055	33.966	15.990	6.444	2.637	0.996
NYJ	5-5	3.902	25.790	11.416	4.386	1.757	0.648
BUF	5-4	13.233	40.612	20.542	7.932	3.133	1.148
NYG	6-3	63.821	73.069	32.500	10.744	3.859	1.479
DAL	4-5	25.272	34.742	14.565	4.712	1.676	0.634
SD	4-5	23.446	25.558	10.014	3.451	1.209	0.397
OAK	5-4	41.736	45.914	17.683	5.722	1.876	0.577
SEA	4-5	0.332	22.274	8.123	2.255	0.703	0.231
MIA	2-7	0.079	0.338	0.120	0.037	0.013	0.004
ARI	3-6	0.050	3.386	1.154	0.309	0.094	0.030
DEN	5-5	28.998	32.191	11.217	3.237	0.960	0.265
CAR	2-7	0.049	0.257	0.083	0.020	0.006	0.002
WAS	3-6	1.780	3.237	0.978	0.227	0.059	0.017
MIN	2-7	-	0.006	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	3-6	0.038	0.200	0.069	0.018	0.005	0.001
JAC	3-6	0.160	0.652	0.183	0.047	0.012	0.003
TB	4-5	0.720	5.066	1.303	0.261	0.060	0.014
KC	4-5	5.821	6.331	1.682	0.380	0.090	0.020
STL	2-7	0.000	0.024	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)