2019-05-09

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 9

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-0 SJS
CAR 0-0 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59261.437.2
SJS0.55151.522.9
STL0.55148.521.0
CAR0.54738.618.9


We're down to 4 teams, and the projections should quit violently moving back and forth, although I guess a back-and-forth series could result in just that.

I was messing around with my program today to investigate how low home ice would need to be in order to make St. Louis the favored team in the West. Their strength is just barely higher than San Jose, but I assume a 55% home ice advantage per game, thus the series favors San Jose at the moment. As it turns out, somewhere between 50.116% and 50.117% is where the home ice advantage flips the series to San Jose.

Even though we just finished one round, the next round starts today - no breaks! Boston takes on Carolina to start things off.

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