2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 21

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 2-2 PIT
SJS 2-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
SJS	0.568	71.0	33.7
PIT	0.593	57.4	32.8
TBL	0.561	42.6	20.3
STL	0.554	29.0	13.3

I always feel the need to explain this situation, but maybe it's more obvious than I think. Despite San Jose being the most likely team to win the cup, the most likely winner-loser matchup is Pittsburgh over San Jose. That's because Pittsburgh is favored in the East, and would be favored over either Western Conference team. But, San Jose is much closer to advancing to the finals right now, because they are up 2-1 while the East is tied at 2 each.

Hopefully tonight both series will be tied at 2-2, as St. Louis tries to break their 2 game scoreless streak.