2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Tampa Bay over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 1-0 PIT
SJS 0-0 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT

Team	Strength	Finals	Cup
TBL	0.561	59.4	28.6
SJS	0.568	51.6	25.4
PIT	0.593	40.6	23.2
STL	0.554	48.4	22.8

St. Louis went from the 3rd most likely to least likely team to win the Stanley Cup, even though their chances actually went up a bit. That's because the previously lowest team, Tampa Bay, is the team who won. So while their own chances went up, the chances for the West went up as well, as they are more likely to face a weaker team. Pittsburgh suffered all of the losses, of course. Now, I'm not sure these numbers will mean much as long as Tampa's involved, because they lost their top goaltender Ben Bishop last night - the only non-strategic reason I was rooting for them. For some reason there's an off day with no hockey today, and tomorrow St. Louis hosts San Jose to open the Western Conference finals.