Round 2
STL 3-3 DAL
NSH 3-3 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL
Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT
| Team | Strength | Round 3 | Finals | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0.593 | 100.0 | 58.7 | 33.5 |
| TBL | 0.561 | 100.0 | 41.3 | 20.2 |
| DAL | 0.574 | 57.0 | 32.1 | 16.1 |
| SJS | 0.568 | 58.9 | 28.9 | 13.7 |
| STL | 0.554 | 43.0 | 22.3 | 10.2 |
| NSH | 0.529 | 41.1 | 16.7 | 6.3 |
Don't worry, you haven't missed my previous projections; this is the first day I'm posting them. I finally got an NHL-specific script written, and I thought, why not post my projections just like I do for baseball and football. Maybe I'll even add in the NBA next year. The only real difference for hockey is that I've decided to experiment with taking home ice advantage into account. Most places I read say 55% is a reasonable number for two evenly matched teams is reasonable, so that's what I used, and all future matchups consider the home team in each game of each series. That means that, while St. Louis and Dallas are reasonably closely matched, the extra home ice advantage pushes Dallas all the way up to a 57% likelihood of winning game 7 and the series tonight. I realize home ice has not been that strong of an advantage so far in this year's playoffs, but I'm willing to chalk that up to a small sample size for now.
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