2018-05-28

2018 Stanley Cup Projection, May 28

Vegas over Washington

Stanley Cup Final
WSH 0-0 VGK

Round 3
VGK 4-1 WPG
WSH 4-3 TBL

Round 2
WPG 4-3 NSH
SJS 2-4 VGK
BOS 1-4 TBL
PIT 2-4 WSH

Round 1
COL 2-4 NSH
MIN 1-4 WPG
LAK 0-4 VGK
SJS 4-0 ANA
NJD 1-4 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CBJ 2-4 WSH
PHI 2-4 PIT


TeamStrengthCup
VGK0.58761.8
WSH0.54038.2

Just before the final begins, I'm back with my projections. I missed a few rounds, but we're down to the important games. I've got Vegas with a 61.8% chance of becoming the first expansion team to win the title in the modern era of any major sports. (It's hard to say what exactly is modern or major, but let's say it cuts off sometime after/higher than the last time an expansion team won in their first year).

Like in past years, I've assumed a 55% home ice advantage, but Vegas has a considerable strength advantage over Washington as well. As usual, I'm a little bit conflicted, because while I'd like to see Ovechkin win a cup, I'll also enjoy the quirkiness of an expansion team winning. I'll say the series will go to at least 6 games, staying close the whole way.

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