2020-01-06

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

The #1 seeds are still my favorites to make it to the Superbowl. Minnesota beat New Orleans, and Seattle beat Philadelphia, in a victory for the eye test over the numbers. Seattle has a lot of very small wins and a few big losses this year, skewing their strength well below their record.

Onto next weekend!

Minnesota at San Francisco (60%)
For being favored all year, I feel like San Francisco should be a bigger favorite in their first playoff game. I've never been a huge Kirk Cousins fan, so let's root for Jimmy Garoppolo and San Francisco to win this one.

Tennessee at Baltimore (79%)
There's that dominant number I come to expect. But, just to throw a monkey wrench into everything, let's root for Tennessee in this one. Neither team really grabs my attention either way, but Tennessee would be quite the Cinderella story, and also potentially make the path easier for Kansas City.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL14-20.869++++++78.857.141.1
SF13-30.786++++++60.343.219.8
KC12-40.758++++++76.829.716.5
MIN10-60.707-++++39.724.89.0
GB13-30.634++++++62.222.36.6
TEN9-70.641-++++21.29.13.9
SEA11-50.513-++++37.89.62.0
HOU10-60.486++++++23.24.01.1
NE12-40.866++++----
DAL8-80.711------
NO13-30.707++++----
BUF10-60.640-++----
PHI9-70.562++++----
LAR9-70.559------
TB7-90.515------
LAC5-110.482------
IND7-90.476------
ATL7-90.466------
PIT8-80.465------
CHI8-80.454------
DEN7-90.416------
CLE6-100.383------
ARI5-10-10.353------
DET3-12-10.344------
NYJ7-90.313------
NYG4-120.302------
JAC6-100.302------
OAK7-90.295------
CAR5-110.275------
CIN2-140.227------
MIA5-110.193------
WAS3-130.187------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco

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