2019 World Series Projections Wrapup

I haven't done one of these wrapups for the past 2 seasons. I knew I got busy last year and didn't do it, but I was surprised to see 2017 missing as well. The graph shows the total chances of winning the world series for each team, during each day of the playoffs (minus the off days). Most teams gradually shrink away as their last series comes to a close, like St. Louis (in red) and Minnesota (in pink because I already used Red, White, and Navy), but you can see how favored LA (in blue) was right up until they lost the NLDS. And Washington didn't become a favorite until they were up 2-0 in the World Series.

Often this is where I muse about adding in homefield advantage next year for more accuracy, but we just had our first ever World Series with all 7 games won by road teams, so it feels slightly less important this time around.

Worst position for Washington: 3.52% on October 7, down 2-1 in the NLDS
Best position for Houston: 82.65% on October 28 up 3-2 in the World Series
Best position for an LCS loser: 30.85% for New York on October 13, up 1-0 in the ALCS
Best position for an LDS loser: 34.39% for Los Angeles on October 4, up 1-0 in the NLDS
Best position for a Wildcard loser: 4.36% for Oakland on October 2, after the NL wildcard game but before the AL wildcard game.

And the full playoff results for 2019:

Washington over Houston

World Series

League Championship Series

Division Series
TB 2-3 HOU
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington
Oct 20: Houston over Washington
Oct 23: Houston over Washington
Oct 24: Washington over Houston
Oct 26: Washington over Houston
Oct 27: Houston over Washington
Oct 28: Houston over Washington
Oct 30: Houston over Washington

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