2019-10-22

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 7, Final

New England over San Francisco

The highest possible strength for a team that has played 7 games is .71875 (7/16 of the way from .500 to 1.000), if a team allows 0 points. New England is quite close to that at over .714. Their 33-0 win last night helped a lot in offsetting the few points they have allowed this year. At the bottom of the league, the lowest possible strength after 6 games is .3125, and Miami is pushing up to that number too at .322.

I should call out a fix I had to make yesterday, I accidentally gave Baltimore an extra 10 points in their win over Pittsburgh, so the last few posts have had them slightly overrated and Pittsburgh slightly underrated. A few years ago I changed my software to print out the points scored and allowed so I can quickly check them against the advanced standings shown online, but I failed to actually check for the last few weeks. The difference was minimal enough today before and after the fix that I won't bother going back to fix the previous weeks.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE7-00.71489.6899.8595.8164.7842.6926.31
SF6-00.66386.3695.7487.0351.9530.4516.24
BAL5-20.59684.4688.6062.7032.4414.617.13
MIN5-20.62731.3074.1850.0526.8314.116.99
GB6-10.58663.3286.2064.9432.3615.346.97
KC5-20.59181.8886.4462.0631.7414.096.80
DAL4-30.62383.2484.1850.1826.2313.736.75
BUF5-10.57510.3291.7352.9122.8610.624.96
NO6-10.53564.8282.5257.1624.7710.344.19
CAR4-20.56032.9253.5332.6714.856.632.84
IND4-20.51048.5063.9639.8316.015.882.37
HOU4-30.53928.6850.3430.3212.595.102.20
SEA5-20.5099.6339.4419.727.853.201.22
LAR4-30.5473.3928.3514.266.172.751.14
TEN3-40.5259.4420.6611.044.231.700.71
JAC3-40.49113.3926.3512.974.621.690.65
CHI3-30.5183.8016.017.753.181.310.51
PIT2-40.4829.0521.5710.283.641.310.50
OAK3-30.43011.3125.1311.303.551.100.36
PHI3-40.47313.5316.046.572.420.900.31
LAC2-50.4985.167.533.451.280.480.19
CLE2-40.4336.4412.585.301.680.530.18
DET2-3-10.4801.587.763.431.280.480.17
TB2-40.4812.196.412.710.990.370.13
ARI3-3-10.4440.625.662.210.740.260.08
DEN2-50.4381.654.231.720.520.170.06
NYG2-50.3963.143.771.260.380.110.03
NYJ1-50.3360.000.850.240.050.010.00
ATL1-60.3760.070.110.030.010.000.00
CIN0-70.3640.060.100.030.010.000.00
WAS1-60.3330.100.110.030.010.000.00
MIA0-60.3220.000.080.020.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)


[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

No comments:

Post a Comment