2018-01-22

Superbowl LII Projection, Championship Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

Well here we are, the first 10 playoff games were moot. The #1 team in both the AFC and NFC made the Superbowl. Of course, this was the most likely scenario, and the projection I made at the start of the playoffs. Of 36 possible matchups, this one had a 14.5% chance of happening, over 1 in 7.

I really thought Jacksonville was going to pull off the win, but they just couldn't quite hang in there for the full 60 minutes. In the NFC, Minnesota struck first, but never scored again, and the result looks pretty certain by halftime. Both teams I rooted for lost, but I wasn't really rooting that hard.

I think Philadelphia is going to continue to score a whole lot of points in the Superbowl, so New England's offense is going to have to match them. We'll see if they've got one more miracle in them to make Tom Brady the only player ever with 6 Superbowl rings. I'm not really sure I'm rooting for either team this time, but I'll probably wear my Eagles hat, as it's the only article of clothing I have related to either team.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI13-30.785++++++++++50.57
NE13-30.781++++++++++49.43
JAC10-60.787++++++++--
MIN13-30.774++++++++--
LAR11-50.751++++----
NO11-50.719++++++---
LAC9-70.694------
PIT13-30.693++++++---
BAL9-70.686------
KC10-60.645++++----
ATL10-60.583-++++---
CAR11-50.576-++----
SEA9-70.571------
DET9-70.564------
DAL9-70.547------
TEN9-70.453-++++---
WAS7-90.408------
TB5-110.404------
SF6-100.394------
BUF9-70.375-++----
GB7-90.369------
CIN7-90.367------
CHI5-110.362------
ARI8-80.355------
OAK6-100.347------
NYJ5-110.324------
HOU4-120.320------
DEN5-110.305------
MIA6-100.271------
IND4-120.220------
NYG3-130.207------
CLE0-160.160------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia and New England (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Divisional Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
[Divisional Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

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