2015-10-31

2015 World Series Projection, October 31

Kansas City over New York

World Series
NYM 1-2 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-2 TOR
CHI 0-4 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
KC0.556069.69
NYM0.549830.31

On one hand, I was kind of rooting for a sweep, to keep the World Series fully in October, and the way Kansas City started off last night, I thought we might be well on our way. But, now I get at least one more day of baseball, so there's a bright side there too. It's easy to have divided loyalties when you're not truly a fan of either team, nor do you dislike either team.

2015-10-30

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 8, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

New England steamrolled Miami as expected, and lengthened their lead in the AFC. They are now the strongest team in the league (though not everyone has played 7 games so that's not totally fair), and the first team reach the 99% threshold for playoff chances. I got to watch the entire second half of this game, and I noticed they didn't slow down even when they probably could have. That may mean their numbers are a bit inflated, because playing to burn clock on offense like most other teams seem to, they might have won this game 29-7 instead of 36-7, or maybe even 22-7. Of course, maybe the ability to keep playing hard instead of burning the clock means precisely that they are a strong team, both offensively and defensively.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE7-00.66190.3599.6992.8157.2233.8019.19
ARI5-20.64774.2584.6163.5136.0820.5411.21
GB6-00.61785.1697.0584.6845.9824.3712.50
CIN6-00.60187.8798.4282.2144.0121.7210.95
CAR6-00.59861.8996.0977.9640.6620.3510.05
NYJ4-20.5958.9980.2451.8724.6612.286.11
DEN6-00.58293.5596.8075.4837.9517.888.65
ATL6-10.57937.3791.9264.5231.4815.087.16
PIT4-30.56011.7450.7828.2412.555.752.66
SEA3-40.55912.1123.4311.625.342.501.14
MIN4-20.55414.5652.0129.2913.246.062.72
PHI3-40.55032.6235.8417.527.783.491.56
NYG4-30.52043.3547.5622.529.333.911.63
BUF3-40.5060.5619.999.503.641.490.61
OAK3-30.4834.4526.8912.144.411.700.66
STL3-30.47313.3926.4011.104.161.590.59
MIA3-40.4620.109.443.931.340.500.18
WAS3-40.45916.6420.068.002.851.030.37
TEN1-50.45716.3816.746.482.210.790.29
KC2-50.4560.918.123.291.100.400.14
NO3-40.4550.548.583.391.190.430.15
BAL1-60.4500.071.210.470.150.060.02
IND3-40.44654.2154.6220.626.832.360.83
SD2-50.4411.094.411.710.550.190.07
TB2-40.4340.214.831.810.600.210.07
CLE2-50.4320.322.100.770.240.080.03
DAL2-40.4287.398.473.091.010.340.11
HOU2-50.42016.2416.655.871.810.590.19
CHI2-40.3990.272.380.780.240.070.02
JAC2-50.39613.1713.894.611.330.400.12
DET1-60.3910.020.150.050.010.000.00
SF2-50.3500.250.630.180.050.010.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]

2015-10-29

Zistle Trade #20

I've now successfully completed 20 trades on Zistle, and this one was with a frequent trading partner, who seems to be a Marlins collector for the most part. Every time I add some relatively common cards to my want list, he's usually got a trade for me within a few weeks. I'm certain most of these were added recently, especially the 1993 Studio cards I added when I got the Gregg Jefferies in my last trade.


1993 Studio #45 Scott Cooper
1993 Studio #62 Todd Zeile
1993 Studio #88 Ron Gant
1992 Donruss #334 Heathcliff Slocumb
1993 Bowman #111 Todd Stottlemyre
1995 Topps #635 Steve Kline / Herb Perry
I like these Studio cards, but I really started collecting Studio in 1997. I liked the design that year and bought a whole box, which was tough to do on the budget of a teenager. Those cards made me appreciate the Studio brand, so through the years I've sought out at least the Cardinals from other years, including those not pictured on the team, as I always do.

The other 3 cards also feature out-of-uniform Cardinals, including rookie cards for Heathcliff Slocumb, who played part of 1999 with the team, and Steve Kline, who played here 2001-2004, and was the league leader in appearances each season 1999-2001. Then there's my long lost cousin, Todd Stottlemyre. I always forget the exact relationship; I think technically it's 2nd cousin once removed. Now I've got to call my mom and maybe grandma tomorrow to sort this out.

2015 World Series Projection, October 29

Kansas City over New York

World Series
NYM 0-2 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-2 TOR
CHI 0-4 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
KC0.556082.03
NYM0.549817.97

I thought game 2 was going to be another close one, and I was ready to make some late-night coffee if needed to see it all. But Kansas City broke out for 4 runs in the 5th inning and Johnny Cueto shut things down from there. They're now over 80% likely to win the championship.

2015-10-28

2015 World Series Projection, October 28

Kansas City over New York

World Series
NYM 0-1 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-2 TOR
CHI 0-4 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
KC0.556066.80
NYM0.549833.20

I didn't watch the whole game last night. I really tried to, but I think I dozed off during the commercial break after the 13th inning. I just wasn't prepared for a game and a half. In case you missed it, too, and you don't read anything online before checking in with me, the Royals won in 14 on a sacrifice fly. I heard a state on the radio on the way into work, that winners of game 1 have won 70 of 110 World Series, which is just under 64%. That's pretty close to what you'd expect from evenly matched teams, which would be about 65%. Kansas City's chances are slightly higher since I weight the chances of each game by team strength, and they are just slightly stronger than New York.

2015-10-27

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 7, Final

New England over Green Bay

Arizona won and are still the strongest team in the league based on my scoring metric, but their two losses have them still behind Green Bay as NFC favorites. Baltimore continues to slide, and I'm hoping that will mean St. Louis can beat them later this year, since their game against Cincinnati seems to probably turn out as a loss.

I should point out we're starting to see some 0.00 values in the Conference Championship and Superbowl Championship columns. Those don't mean 0, those mean values below 0.005% that round to 0.00. When a team is truly eliminated from a spot - or at least when 0 simulations result in them reaching that spot - the number disappears completely. As long as a team has some shot at a playoff spot, ideally none of their other columns should zero out completely.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI5-20.64774.2584.6163.5136.0820.5411.57
NE6-00.62479.3797.5384.8348.4626.7514.11
GB6-00.61785.1697.0584.6845.9924.3812.95
CIN6-00.60187.8897.9783.3845.3723.5411.86
CAR6-00.59861.8896.0977.9740.6720.3510.42
NYJ4-20.59516.6177.8451.8325.9813.346.63
DEN6-00.58293.7996.7677.5039.8719.729.54
ATL6-10.57937.3891.9364.5331.4915.087.43
PIT4-30.56011.7346.7026.4312.275.822.69
SEA3-40.55912.1123.4311.625.342.501.18
MIN4-20.55414.5652.0229.2913.246.062.83
PHI3-40.55032.4735.6917.447.743.481.61
NYG4-30.52043.1847.3622.429.293.891.69
MIA3-30.5202.7224.4312.415.242.280.96
BUF3-40.5061.2918.498.943.631.530.63
OAK3-30.4834.3424.8911.474.401.760.68
STL3-30.47313.3926.3811.094.161.590.62
WAS3-40.45917.2720.778.302.951.070.40
TEN1-50.45717.0717.366.772.430.900.33
KC2-50.4560.887.262.981.060.400.14
NO3-40.4550.538.593.391.190.430.16
BAL1-60.4500.060.980.380.130.050.02
IND3-40.44652.6953.0220.147.012.520.89
SD2-50.4410.993.831.510.520.190.07
TB2-40.4340.214.821.810.600.210.07
CLE2-50.4320.321.790.670.220.080.03
DAL2-40.4287.088.102.950.970.320.11
HOU2-50.42016.9117.256.131.990.670.22
CHI2-40.3990.272.380.780.240.070.02
JAC2-50.39613.3313.914.641.410.440.14
DET1-60.3910.020.150.050.010.000.00
SF2-50.3500.250.630.180.050.010.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]

2015-10-26

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 7, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

Green Bay held on to the conference favorite position despite their bye week, though Carolina got a little closer with their win to tie them at 6-0. As I expected, New England took over as the AFC favorite, also at 6-0. Arizona could possibly improve their lot tonight, though I don't think they could overtake Green Bay and become Superbowl favorites, unless they win by an impossibly huge score.

St. Louis won this week! They managed to win by getting an extra week to prepare due to their bye, and by playing at home against Cleveland. At 3-3 I can still hold out hope of a playoff run, but I've got it as a 1 in 5 shot right now.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI4-20.63066.0777.2955.0630.1416.629.06
NE6-00.62479.4097.5384.8348.4826.7714.28
GB6-00.61785.1697.1586.2647.5525.5113.55
CIN6-00.60187.9497.9383.4245.4123.5612.01
CAR6-00.59861.8896.1878.7441.5321.0810.79
NYJ4-20.59516.6177.7851.7925.9713.336.71
DEN6-00.58293.8196.7877.5439.8919.739.66
ATL6-10.57937.3892.1765.3632.2715.687.72
PIT4-30.56011.5746.1326.1012.125.752.69
SEA3-40.55915.8726.0213.196.092.881.36
MIN4-20.55414.5653.0830.6614.046.503.03
PHI3-40.55032.7436.1517.837.993.641.68
NYG4-30.52043.0347.3422.689.514.051.76
MIA3-30.5202.6924.1512.275.182.260.97
BUF3-40.5061.2918.398.903.611.530.63
OAK3-30.4834.3524.9611.514.411.760.69
STL3-30.47317.6628.7712.314.651.800.70
BAL1-50.4650.182.150.880.320.130.05
WAS3-40.45917.2020.788.403.021.110.42
TEN1-50.45717.1017.386.772.430.900.33
KC2-50.4560.877.122.931.040.390.14
NO3-40.4550.538.773.571.270.470.17
IND3-40.44652.7853.1120.187.022.530.91
SD2-50.4410.983.771.490.510.180.07
TB2-40.4340.214.871.870.630.220.08
CLE2-50.4320.321.800.670.220.080.03
DAL2-40.4287.048.082.970.990.340.12
HOU2-50.42016.9317.266.142.000.670.22
CHI2-40.3990.262.430.830.250.080.03
JAC2-50.39613.1913.764.591.400.440.14
DET1-60.3910.020.150.050.020.000.00
SF2-50.3500.390.760.220.060.020.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]

2015-10-25

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

There's still some instability in the rankings, with Michigan State passing Ohio State on its way to #1, despite both teams moving from 7-0 to 8-0 this week, since MSU's victory was over a slightly stronger team. There will be more shuffling as the teams that haven't yet taken a bye week do so in the coming weeks, and everyone gets back to roughly the same number of games played. Iowa fell from #1 to #3, and TCU dropped from #4 to #8 in their bye weeks.

Missouri lost pitifully to fall to #66, and haven't scored a touchdown in their last 3 games. Their opponent, Vanderbilt, is only 3-4 and now #86.

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game?
I watched most of Missouri's game on the SEC Network, which cut away to some pregame activities at the LSU game during a break. The sidelines were swamped, and I immediately thought they might become the best team ever to have 2 games canceled in the same season. But, the game was played, and they won again, bringing them to #4. If they had won, they'd jump 3 spots to #1, and Idaho, now tied at #91, would be #92 on their own.

1Michigan State8-0
2Ohio State8-0
3Iowa7-0
4LSU7-0
5Clemson7-0
6Alabama7-1
7Memphis7-0
8TCU7-0
9Oklahoma State7-0
10Temple7-0
11Baylor7-0
12Utah6-1
13Northwestern6-2
14Florida6-1
15Toledo7-0
16Notre Dame6-1
17Houston7-0
18Ole Miss6-2
19Stanford6-1
20Oklahoma6-1
21Mississippi State6-2
22Penn State6-2
23Marshall7-1
24Pittsburgh6-1
25North Carolina6-1
26BYU6-2
27Florida State6-1
28Duke6-1
29California5-2
30Wisconsin6-2
31Western Kentucky6-2
32Michigan5-2
T-33Texas A&M5-2
T-33UCLA5-2
35Bowling Green6-2
36Appalachian State6-1
37Boise State6-2
38Navy5-1
39Washington State5-2
40Georgia5-2
41Texas Tech5-3
42San Diego State5-3
43Arizona5-3
44Georgia Southern5-2
45NC State5-2
46Ohio5-3
47Louisiana Tech5-3
48Auburn4-3
49USC4-3
50Illinois4-3
51Oregon4-3
52Kentucky4-3
53Indiana4-4
T-54Miami (FL)4-3
T-54Arizona State4-3
56Utah State4-3
57Western Michigan4-3
58East Carolina4-4
59Cincinnati4-3
60Minnesota4-3
61Southern Mississippi5-3
62Northern Illinois5-3
63Central Michigan4-4
64Tennessee3-4
65Texas3-4
66Missouri4-4
67Arkansas State4-3
68West Virginia3-3
69Air Force4-3
70South Florida4-3
71Georgia Tech3-5
72Arkansas3-4
73Louisville3-4
74Kansas State3-4
75Washington3-4
76Rice4-3
77Nebraska3-5
78Rutgers3-4
79San Jose State4-4
80Virginia Tech3-5
81South Carolina3-4
82Colorado4-4
83Florida Intl4-4
84Nevada4-4
85Tulsa3-4
86Vanderbilt3-4
87Syracuse3-4
88Buffalo3-4
89Akron3-4
90Boston College3-5
T-91Idaho3-4
T-91Wake Forest3-5
93Middle Tennessee3-5
94Maryland2-5
95South Alabama3-4
96New Mexico4-4
97Old Dominion3-4
98Virginia2-5
99Colorado State3-4
100Kent State3-5
101Connecticut3-5
102Iowa State2-5
103Oregon State2-5
104Texas State2-4
105Tulane2-5
106UTEP3-4
107Troy2-5
108Louisiana Lafayette2-4
109Hawaii2-6
110Fresno State2-6
111UNLV2-5
112Ball State2-6
113Georgia State2-4
114Army2-6
115Purdue1-6
116SMU1-6
117Massachusetts1-6
118Charlotte2-5
119Texas San Antonio1-6
120Louisiana Monroe1-6
121Miami (OH)1-7
122Florida Atlantic1-6
123Wyoming1-7
124Kansas0-7
125North Texas0-7
126Eastern Michigan1-7
127UCF0-8
128New Mexico State0-7

2015 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida
Week 7 Iowa

2015-10-24

2015 World Series Projection, October 23

Kansas City over New York

World Series
NYM 0-0 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-2 TOR
CHI 0-4 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
KC0.556051.38
NYM0.549848.62

The World Series matchup is all set. These were definitely not the most likely teams at the start of the postseason. Both had 20% chances at the start, which is right about 1 out of 5, which is what you'd expect by randomly selecting one of the 5 playoff teams from each league. But since they were division winners, and the playoff is a bracket, not round-robin, with random chance they'd have actually been 25% likely to make the World Series. So this year, I'm worse than the proverbial monkey with a dart board at picking the league champions, and the same will be true of the World Series champion, since I had both of these teams below 10%. This is why I'm not a gambling tycoon.

2015-10-23

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Green Bay over Cincinnati

Unsurprisingly, a game between 2 teams from the same division, both 2-4 and 2 games behind the division leader, did not affect the Superbowl projection all that much. Seattle beat San Francisco 20-3 and pushed them even further into last place. I take special interest in these games since the NFC West is also St. Louis's division. Unfortunately the Seattle win pushed St. Louis's division title odds down just a little bit

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI4-20.63071.7881.9759.9433.4818.6810.22
GB6-00.61789.0897.7088.0849.2126.8014.28
NE5-00.60958.3492.6473.8840.0721.3711.18
NYJ4-10.60536.8784.3161.5932.5017.148.89
CIN6-00.60179.7396.9480.9943.6922.8011.74
DEN6-00.58194.5096.4976.5039.2019.499.64
PIT4-20.57819.1760.9337.2718.289.034.44
CAR5-00.57857.3991.9171.1536.0617.598.66
PHI3-30.57249.3655.9731.8115.267.383.59
ATL5-10.56740.8589.6763.4030.9214.737.09
SEA3-40.55918.1830.6615.807.423.551.68
MIN3-20.53410.4644.8924.4010.784.852.17
BUF3-30.5123.6627.3213.725.762.471.05
NYG3-30.50626.4433.5516.066.622.761.16
MIA2-30.4821.1410.164.671.830.740.29
CLE2-40.4680.964.551.910.720.280.11
TEN1-40.46717.5818.157.132.671.020.39
OAK2-30.4662.3712.215.321.990.770.29
BAL1-50.4650.141.640.670.250.100.04
IND3-30.45756.9757.5722.318.133.021.13
WAS2-40.45410.7514.536.012.180.800.30
SD2-40.4532.757.733.181.150.430.16
HOU2-40.44721.0722.208.412.991.090.40
NO2-40.4450.657.362.911.020.370.14
DAL2-30.44213.4516.476.712.360.840.30
KC1-50.4390.382.470.960.330.120.04
STL2-30.4359.5417.697.012.450.870.31
TB2-30.4351.1112.084.871.670.590.21
DET1-50.4070.151.210.420.140.050.01
CHI2-40.3990.313.311.130.350.110.04
JAC1-50.3914.384.681.490.450.140.04
SF2-50.3500.491.040.310.080.020.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]

2015-10-22

eBay Wins #196

Today I've got more 1981s, this time from Fleer. There are some nice old uniforms from Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and San Francisco. Detroit, of course, still wears nearly that same uniform.

1981 Fleer
#380 Rod Scurry
#398 Gary Alexander
#434 Willie McCovey
#459 Steve Kemp
None of these 4 were Cardinals. Willie McCovey's a nice card to get for just a penny, which is what each of these cost. I used to only have 3 cards from this set, and oddly enough, now I have 6. I already had a copy of the Steve Kemp card.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought3379
Total Spent$52.27
Per Card1.547 cents
Change-0.001 cents

2015 World Series Projection, October 22

Kansas City over New York

World Series
NYM 0-0 tbd

League Championship Series
KC 3-2 TOR
CHI 0-4 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
TOR0.628733.0522.23
KC0.556066.9534.40
NYM0.5498100.0043.37

New York finished off Chicago in 4 games, and are headed to the World Series. Kansas City couldn't quite get it done against Toronto, though, and we'll have an off day today followed by game 6 of their series on Friday. With 5 days off, New York will be able to fully rest all of their pitchers and set up their rotation in their preferred way. Their opponent will either have 2 or 3 days of rest depending on whether a game 7 is forced, which may tip the scales New York's way.

2015-10-21

2015 World Series Projection, October 21

Kansas City over New York

League Championship Series
KC 3-1 TOR
CHI 0-3 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
TOR0.628719.0012.76
CHI0.55756.653.14
KC0.556081.0041.52
NYM0.549893.3542.57


New York had a solid win over Chicago, and Kansas City exploded on offense against Toronto, and their World Series matchup is now about 75% certain. On this Back to the Future day, we won't get the predicted news of the Cubs sweeping the World Series in 5, but we just might get the Cubs swept out of the NLCS.

2015-10-20

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 6, Final

Green Bay over Cincinnati

I was too busy to watch the game last night, so I have no particular insights about it, except that nothing happened that was crazy enough to destroy the huge leads I had in both of my fantasy leagues. I'm now 4-2 and 5-1. Good for me.

The NFC East looks like a tossup if you only look at the standings, with 2 teams at 3-3, then one each at 2-3 and 2-4. But, considering team strengths and simulating the schedule, I give Philadelphia almost a 50% chance of winning it, and New York, even though they are tied with Philadelphia at 3-3, wins in just over 25% of the simulations. Before tonight's game, in which New York was favored, they had a 53% chance at the division. Upsets always tip the odds by a greater magnitude than favorites winning.

I completely forgot to track the milestones like I have in the past, so those have now been added to this post and will be going forward.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI4-20.63077.4084.8962.6335.0519.5810.71
GB6-00.61788.8497.8188.1449.4726.9714.37
NE5-00.60958.3492.5973.8740.0721.3711.18
NYJ4-10.60536.8784.2361.5732.4917.138.90
CIN6-00.60179.0196.7980.6243.4722.6811.68
DEN6-00.58294.5196.4876.5439.2319.509.65
PIT4-20.57819.8661.7437.9018.609.194.52
CAR5-00.57857.7692.1671.4036.3017.738.73
PHI3-30.57249.1856.3432.2315.477.493.65
ATL5-10.56740.4589.8263.3730.9714.787.11
MIN3-20.53410.7246.9725.5911.315.082.28
SEA2-40.52010.4818.108.523.661.610.70
BUF3-30.5123.6527.1113.625.722.451.04
NYG3-30.50626.3334.1716.446.772.831.19
MIA2-30.4821.1310.074.631.810.730.29
CLE2-40.4680.984.561.910.720.280.11
TEN1-40.46717.5818.147.122.661.020.39
OAK2-30.4662.3612.105.271.970.760.29
BAL1-50.4650.151.690.690.260.100.04
IND3-30.45756.9757.5522.298.123.021.13
WAS2-40.45410.7014.776.132.220.820.31
SD2-40.4532.757.653.151.140.430.16
HOU2-40.44721.0722.188.392.981.080.40
NO2-40.4450.667.903.131.100.400.15
DAL2-30.44213.8017.197.042.470.880.32
KC1-50.4390.382.440.940.330.120.04
STL2-30.43510.0218.207.212.510.900.32
TB2-30.4341.1312.635.091.750.620.22
DET1-50.4070.141.300.460.150.050.02
CHI2-40.3990.293.511.190.370.120.04
JAC1-50.3914.384.671.490.450.140.04
SF2-40.3862.094.241.430.440.140.04

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]

2015 World Series Projection, October 20

Kansas City over New York

League Championship Series
KC 2-1 TOR
CHI 0-2 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
TOR0.628743.2328.95
CHI0.557519.748.57
KC0.556056.7728.98
NYM0.549880.2633.51


Toronto decided not to wait until the last minute for this series, and took game 3 against Kansas City. They'll have to even up the series tonight to get back to being favored, though. Chicago and New York resume their series today. I'll be rooting for Kansas City and New York today. Enjoy today and tomorrow, because they might be the last two days of the year with multiple baseball games. Saturday is still a possibility, but 

2015-10-19

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Green Bay over Cincinnati

Cincinnati keeps winning to hold off New England in the AFC, and Green Bay is 6-0, and 2 full games and 7 percentage points ahead of the nearest NFC competition, Arizona. Start ordering your cheeseheads now, everyone.

St. Louis was off this week, mercifully. Their playoff odds actually improved a bit due to the Arizona and Seattle losses.

Also in the NFC West, San Francisco won their game, but stayed the weakest team in the league. That's due to the narrow margin of victory, combined with the win by the Detroit who was right in front of them, and the narrow loss by Chicago (to Detroit) which didn't bring them down much. If that game had been lopsided, the loser likely would have been last.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI4-20.63077.9085.4163.1635.4419.8610.86
GB6-00.61789.0897.8487.9049.4827.0514.42
NE5-00.60958.7192.5773.9640.1421.4111.23
NYJ4-10.60536.3283.7561.1032.2316.998.84
CIN6-00.60179.0196.7780.6243.4822.7011.72
DEN6-00.58294.5196.4876.5639.2619.539.69
PIT4-20.57819.8661.6137.8518.589.184.52
CAR5-00.57857.8592.3171.3936.4117.828.78
ATL5-10.56740.3989.9363.3331.0314.847.14
NYG3-20.54453.8060.2433.4915.116.883.15
MIN3-20.53410.4746.5025.2711.195.042.26
PHI2-30.53023.2930.2115.406.722.971.32
SEA2-40.52010.2918.178.543.671.620.70
BUF3-30.5123.8227.7913.995.872.521.07
MIA2-30.4821.1510.084.641.810.730.29
CLE2-40.4680.984.541.900.720.280.11
TEN1-40.46717.5918.157.132.671.020.39
OAK2-30.4662.3612.105.281.970.760.29
BAL1-50.4650.151.690.690.260.100.04
IND3-30.45756.9657.5422.298.123.021.13
WAS2-40.4549.7814.496.012.170.800.30
SD2-40.4532.757.653.151.140.430.16
HOU2-40.44721.0722.188.402.991.090.40
NO2-40.4450.637.703.071.080.390.14
DAL2-30.44213.1316.976.952.440.870.31
KC1-50.4390.382.430.940.330.120.04
STL2-30.4349.7718.167.182.510.900.32
TB2-30.4341.1312.825.171.780.630.22
DET1-50.4070.161.380.480.160.050.02
CHI2-40.3990.293.591.220.380.120.04
JAC1-50.3914.384.661.490.450.140.04
SF2-40.3862.034.291.450.440.140.04

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]

2015 World Series Projection, October 19

Kansas City over New York

League Championship Series
KC 2-0 TOR
CHI 0-2 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
TOR0.628729.4919.75
CHI0.557519.749.00
KC0.556070.5135.99
NYM0.549880.2635.26


New York extended their lead over the cubs, and it's now over 50% likely the matchup will be them against Kansas City. The NL is off today, and the AL returns to action, so we'll see if Kansas City can go on the road and continue to win. It's still only 2-0 in each series, but if New York sweeps and Kansas City wins in 5 or less, we'll have to deal with 5 baseball-free days from October 22-26. 

2015-10-18

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

I think my #1 spot is cursed by the ghost of LSU's canceled game. For the second consecutive week the team at that spot lost, as Florida fell to LSU. Iowa is the new #1. They've got a bye next week too, and it's likely that one of the other 7-0 teams will move to 8-0 and pass them. Although, it's not impossible for an 8-0 team to be below a 7-0 team in my rankings.

Missouri and Georgia kicked a total of 5 field goals as the Tigers lost 9-6 and fell to #55. Maybe they can play in one of the recently added bowls that bring the total high enough to necessitate 5-win teams getting into the postseason.

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game?
Having beaten previous #1 Florida, LSU would now be at #1 again. As is stands they are #6, but winning their next two games could bring them all the way up to a legitimate #1, since they're against #23 and #9, respectively.

1Iowa7-0
2Ohio State7-0
3Michigan State7-0
4TCU7-0
5Utah6-0
6LSU6-0
7Florida6-1
8Clemson6-0
9Alabama6-1
10Memphis6-0
11Florida State6-0
12Notre Dame6-1
13Oklahoma State6-0
14Baylor6-0
15California5-1
16Temple6-0
17Toledo6-0
T-18Northwestern5-2
T-18Houston6-0
20Marshall6-1
21Michigan5-2
22BYU5-2
23Western Kentucky6-1
24Texas A&M5-1
25Stanford5-1
26Pittsburgh5-1
27Penn State5-2
28Oklahoma5-1
29North Carolina5-1
30Ole Miss5-2
31Mississippi State5-2
32Georgia5-2
33Duke5-1
34Ohio5-2
35Texas Tech5-2
36Boise State5-2
37Georgia Southern5-1
38Wisconsin5-2
39Arizona5-2
40Auburn4-2
41Bowling Green5-2
42Illinois4-2
43Navy4-1
44Appalachian State5-1
45UCLA4-2
46Kentucky4-2
47Utah State4-2
48Miami (FL)4-2
49Washington State4-2
50Oregon4-3
51East Carolina4-3
52Indiana4-3
53Minnesota4-3
54Arizona State4-3
55Missouri4-3
56San Diego State4-3
57NC State4-2
58Louisiana Tech4-3
59Tennessee3-3
60Western Michigan3-3
61West Virginia3-3
62Kansas State3-3
63USC3-3
64Nebraska3-4
65Cincinnati3-3
66Northern Illinois4-3
67Washington3-3
68Southern Mississippi4-3
69Virginia Tech3-4
70Rutgers3-3
71South Carolina3-4
72Tulsa3-3
73Central Michigan3-4
74South Florida3-3
75Arkansas State3-3
76Wake Forest3-4
77Boston College3-4
78Texas2-4
79Syracuse3-3
80New Mexico4-3
81Air Force3-3
82South Alabama3-3
83Old Dominion3-3
84Akron3-4
85Louisville2-4
86Connecticut3-4
T-87Middle Tennessee3-4
T-87Kent State3-4
89Maryland2-4
T-90Rice3-3
T-90Virginia2-4
92Arkansas2-4
93Colorado State3-4
94San Jose State3-4
95Georgia Tech2-5
96Oregon State2-4
97Colorado3-4
98Iowa State2-4
99Nevada3-4
100Florida Intl3-4
101Vanderbilt2-4
102Idaho2-4
103Tulane2-4
104Hawaii2-5
105Louisiana Lafayette2-3
106Fresno State2-5
107Army2-5
108Buffalo2-4
109Ball State2-5
110UNLV2-5
111SMU1-5
112Purdue1-6
113Charlotte2-4
114Texas State1-4
115Georgia State2-4
116UTEP2-4
117Louisiana Monroe1-5
118Troy1-5
119Massachusetts1-5
120Miami (OH)1-6
121Texas San Antonio1-6
122Florida Atlantic1-5
123Wyoming1-6
124Kansas0-6
125Eastern Michigan1-6
126North Texas0-6
127New Mexico State0-6
128UCF0-7

2015 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida

2015 World Series Projection, October 18

Kansas City over New York

League Championship Series
KC 2-0 TOR
CHI 0-1 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
TOR0.628729.4919.68
CHI0.557535.8516.35
KC0.556070.5135.79
NYM0.549864.1528.18


The Mets have become the NL favorite for the first time this year, and Kansas City is in the driver's seat in the AL up 2-0. No matter who ultimately wins, a fairly long world championship drought will end. It may be 22 years for Toronto, 29 years for New York, 30 years for Kansas City, or 107 for Chicago. The last sizeable streak to end was 56 years from 1954-2010 by the New York/San Francisco Giants. With 30 teams and decent parity, it makes sense we'd have streaks longer than 30 years end fairly often, so really the first three teams aren't outliers by that far. What is unusual is that we're already down to only teams with long streaks of no wins, with 4 still in the hunt.

2015-10-17

2015 World Series Projection, October 17

Chicago over Kansas City

League Championship Series
KC 1-0 TOR
CHI 0-0 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
TOR0.628749.2332.72
CHI0.557551.7121.94
KC0.556050.7725.63
NYM0.549848.2919.70


From a betting perspective, things couldn't get much closer. Chicago is the biggest LCS favorite at 51.71%, followed by Kansas City at 50.77%, despite their one-game lead. Today will feature a game in each series, moving us a bit closer. 

2015-10-16

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Green Bay over Cincinnati

Atlanta lost some ground by losing a game they should have won against New Orleans. I had Atlanta with a 65% chance of winning that game. That's not a sure thing, but it's still quite an upset. Green Bay's positioning solidified at the top of the NFC with Atlanta dropping to 5-1 instead of taking a lead at 6-0, and the AFC was relatively unaffected, so Green Bay and Cincinnati are still my Superbowl teams.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI4-10.62680.6589.5371.1340.7022.9812.88
GB5-00.60388.5596.2683.2645.8524.4813.13
NE4-00.59656.7488.4469.7538.0620.4410.58
NYJ3-10.58431.3774.8252.6327.4814.377.26
CIN5-00.58178.6991.4175.1439.9520.6610.38
DEN5-00.57789.4093.1474.9739.4020.1710.04
CAR4-00.57049.7184.3161.4430.8815.117.59
ATL5-10.56747.8589.4964.7032.2115.667.81
PIT3-20.55316.6242.8625.8312.476.062.87
NYG3-20.54451.5059.5633.9615.557.193.42
BUF3-20.53811.4150.0529.2513.626.422.95
PHI2-30.53020.9728.7814.966.622.971.37
SEA2-30.52911.8128.7814.876.643.021.39
TEN1-30.52129.8532.7916.077.133.221.42
MIN2-20.5179.9235.3918.718.113.571.61
WAS2-30.48415.9724.2411.314.481.810.76
BAL1-40.4751.054.782.140.850.350.14
CLE2-30.4743.6410.415.062.040.840.33
IND3-20.46956.5758.6726.5910.484.191.64
SD2-30.4676.0814.666.742.661.070.42
OAK2-30.4663.2813.226.032.370.950.37
KC1-40.4541.245.562.380.900.350.13
NO2-40.4450.867.152.901.040.380.15
DAL2-30.44211.5615.886.682.380.870.33
STL2-30.4356.7617.347.092.520.910.34
TB2-30.4351.5812.425.141.800.650.24
HOU1-40.4287.548.613.361.190.430.15
MIA1-30.4270.493.551.490.530.200.07
JAC1-40.4096.037.032.570.860.300.10
CHI2-30.4001.357.662.770.880.290.10
DET0-50.3990.180.830.290.090.030.01
SF1-40.3850.782.380.810.250.080.03

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]

October Card Show Autographs

I've become a regular at the monthly card shows, though I haven't been buying all that many cards. What I do buy is autograph tickets.

Ken Oberkfell                                                                       Tito Landrum
Curtis Joseph and Keith Tkachuk were both at the show too, and combined with these two members of the 1982 World Champions, they drew quite a crowd. I was pretty surprised how long Tito Landrum's line was. The gentleman after me had paid for 13 autographs, and woke up at 3am to drive in from Arkansas.

I spotted a Tito Landrum autograph at All Cardinals All the Time a while ago, and it turns out it came from the same show. He also mentioned the next person in line had 20 or so items for Tito to sign, too. Tito was really friendly and joked with the fans, which I always appreciate. Ken Oberkfell seemed a little less enthusiastic to be there, but not grumpy, just maybe a bit overwhelmed. I did learn from him that he had twins in September of 1982, right before winning the World Series, so that was quite a good year for him and his family.

The lineup isn't too compelling for the November show, so I may be taking a month off, but I've already got my advance tickets for December. I'm going to need to get some more baseballs by then.

2015-10-15

2015 World Series Projection, October 16

Toronto over Chicago

League Championship Series
KC 0-0 TOR
CHI 0-0 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
TOR0.628766.0243.88
CHI0.557551.7120.55
KC0.556033.9817.16
NYM0.549848.2918.41


New York won game 5 by a run, and advances to the NLCS. As I mentioned before, Chicago is the favorite in the series, though just barely. Toronto is still the AL favorite, so my projection remains Toronto over Chicago. There's no time off when series go the full length, and the ALCS starts tonight. I'll root for the underdog yet higher-seeded Kansas City.

2015 World Series Projection, October 15

Toronto over Chicago

League Championship Series
KC 0-0 TOR
CHI 0-0 tbd

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 2-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
TOR0.6287100.0066.0243.79
CHI0.5575100.0051.4020.43
KC0.5560100.0033.9817.11
LAD0.552650.2824.599.52
NYM0.549849.7224.019.16

Toronto and Kansas City both won game 5s at home to advance to the ALCS, and Toronto remains the favorite, now 66% likely to make it to the World Series. We'll find out the opponent for Chicago in the NLCS tonight. The NLCS will be nearly a tossup either way, but an LA win would make it as close as possible.

2015-10-14

2015 World Series Projection, October 14

Toronto over Chicago

Division Series
TEX 2-2 TOR
HOU 2-2 KC
NYM 2-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
TOR0.628761.8239.5026.20
HOU0.575752.0124.9413.65
CHI0.5575100.0051.4022.78
KC0.556047.9921.0310.59
LAD0.552650.2824.5910.64
NYM0.549849.7224.0110.25
TEX0.511238.1814.545.90

The Cardinals have spoiled me over the last 5 years, to the point that this NLDS exit felt disappointing. But 100 wins and a playoff appearance is an outstanding season for many teams, so I won't complain. In the other NLDS, LA tied up the series, which will have a deciding game 5 tomorrow. Chicago will start out the NLCS favored over either opponent they may face. Both ALDS game 5s are tonight. I'll be rooting for Kansas City and Toronto, but an all-Texas ALCS could be interesting too, so mostly I'll just enjoy the games.

2015-10-13

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 5, Final

Green Bay over Cincinnati

Cincinnati's divisional chances went down a bit due to Pittsburgh's win, and now they lead the AFC by just the slimmest of margins over New England, with Denver still just behind in 3rd. The NFC was relatively unaffected, with most movement coming from teams in the West that will face Pittsburgh this year, or the North who will face San Diego. For example, because the Rams have already faced Pittsburgh and Arizona hasn't, and Pittsburgh got stronger, Arizona's divisional chances dropped by 0.05%, and St. Louis's went up by as much. Of course, some of that movement could be due to the random nature of the simulations I run, but at least part of it is significant.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI4-10.62680.6189.3269.5539.3022.0912.38
GB5-00.60388.6196.2382.2744.7623.7912.76
NE4-00.59656.7588.4469.7638.0720.4510.54
NYJ3-10.58431.3674.8252.6327.4714.367.23
CIN5-00.58178.6991.4075.1339.9520.6610.33
ATL5-00.57960.8895.1775.5839.0619.389.91
DEN5-00.57789.3993.1474.9639.3920.1710.00
CAR4-00.57037.8783.9857.9428.7614.027.04
PIT3-20.55316.6242.8425.8212.476.052.85
NYG3-20.54451.6759.8233.2515.106.953.31
BUF3-20.53811.4050.0529.2413.626.422.93
PHI2-30.53020.8228.5814.536.382.851.32
SEA2-30.52911.8528.6814.456.422.891.33
TEN1-30.52129.8232.7616.057.133.211.41
MIN2-20.5179.8535.0418.247.863.441.55
WAS2-30.48416.0424.4611.154.391.760.74
BAL1-40.4751.054.782.140.850.350.14
CLE2-30.4743.6410.415.062.040.840.33
IND3-20.46956.5558.6526.5910.484.191.63
SD2-30.4676.0914.666.752.661.070.41
OAK2-30.4663.2813.226.032.370.950.37
KC1-40.4541.245.572.390.910.350.13
DAL2-30.44211.4815.936.552.320.840.32
STL2-30.4356.7717.226.852.420.870.32
TB2-30.4351.0111.904.771.660.590.22
NO1-40.4290.242.821.070.360.130.05
HOU1-40.4287.608.673.381.200.430.15
MIA1-30.4280.493.561.490.530.200.07
JAC1-40.4096.037.032.570.860.300.10
CHI2-30.4001.367.702.740.870.290.10
DET0-50.3990.180.830.290.090.030.01
SF1-40.3850.772.330.780.240.080.02

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]

2015 World Series Projection, October 13

Toronto over Chicago

Division Series
TEX 2-2 TOR
HOU 2-2 KC
NYM 2-1 LAD
CHI 2-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
TOR0.628761.8239.5025.66
STL0.595429.0217.399.13
HOU0.575752.0124.9413.29
CHI0.557570.9836.6016.22
KC0.556047.9921.0310.29
LAD0.552625.2811.755.08
NYM0.549874.7234.2714.63
TEX0.511238.1814.545.71

In a single day's games, both league favorites were supplanted, and Toronto is back on top. St. Louis and Los Angeles will need to pull off road victories today to stay alive, and avoid having an NLCS of a third place team vs the third best division winner. That's a cynical way to look at the very strong NL Central this year, but it's not inaccurate. Today I'll be rooting for LA, simply to take the other series to 5 games and avoid any rest advantage should St. Louis win their series.