2012-09-30

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

The bye weeks are kicking in at the top, so 10 5-0 teams have displaced Notre Dame this week, along with West Virginia and Texas Tech at 4-0. Are there usually still 22 undefeated teams 5 weeks into the season? I guess I can't easily find whether it's true "usually", but I can compare to Week 5, 2011, when there were just 15.

Mizzou beat #68 UCF to rise up to #38. On the upside, their strength of schedule for future games will help keep them afloat. On the downside, the tough schedule will drop them a little (or a lot) with every loss.

1Florida State5-0
2Oregon5-0
3Alabama5-0
4Georgia5-0
5South Carolina5-0
6Ohio State5-0
7LSU5-0
8Northwestern5-0
9Ohio5-0
10Louisville5-0
11Texas Tech4-0
12West Virginia4-0
13Notre Dame4-0
14Miami (FL)4-1
15Florida4-0
16Texas4-0
17Arizona State4-1
18Kansas State4-0
19Clemson4-1
20Mississippi State4-0
21Minnesota4-1
22Toledo4-1
23Rutgers4-0
24Louisiana Tech4-0
25Northern Illinois4-1
26Nebraska4-1
27Oregon State3-0
28UCLA4-1
29Utah State4-1
30Nevada4-1
31San Jose State4-1
32Duke4-1
33TCU4-0
34Stanford3-1
35Iowa State3-1
36Western Kentucky4-1
37Tulsa4-1
38Missouri3-2
39Arizona3-2
40Boise State3-1
41Iowa3-2
42Washington3-1
43Purdue3-1
44Cincinnati3-0
45Michigan State3-2
46North Carolina State3-2
47Baylor3-1
48Wisconsin3-2
49Texas A&M3-1
50Kent State3-1
51Ball State3-2
52North Carolina3-2
53USC3-1
54Tennessee3-2
55Ole Miss3-2
56Louisiana-Lafayette3-1
57East Carolina3-2
58Penn State3-2
59Wake Forest3-2
60Middle Tennessee3-1
61Fresno State3-2
62Troy3-2
63Miami (OH)3-2
64Virginia Tech3-2
65Connecticut3-2
66Brigham Young3-2
67South Florida2-3
68Central Michigan2-2
69Utah2-2
70Western Michigan2-3
71Virginia2-3
71Oklahoma2-1
73Oklahoma State2-2
74Pittsburgh2-2
75Indiana2-2
76Illinois2-3
77Michigan2-2
78New Mexico2-3
79UCF2-2
80Marshall2-3
81Georgia Tech2-3
82Maryland2-2
83San Diego State2-3
84North Texas2-3
85Arkansas State2-3
86Washington State2-3
87Bowling Green2-3
88Louisiana-Monroe2-2
89Kentucky1-4
90Syracuse1-3
91Air Force2-2
92Auburn1-3
93Vanderbilt1-3
94Boston College1-3
95California1-4
96Temple1-2
97Southern Methodist1-3
98Wyoming1-3
99Kansas1-3
100Buffalo1-3
101Navy1-3
102Arkansas1-4
103Hawaii1-3
104Houston1-3
105Florida Atlantic1-4
106UNLV1-4
107New Mexico State1-4
108Florida International1-4
109Colorado State1-4
110UTEP1-4
111Rice1-4
112Colorado1-4
113Akron1-4
114UAB0-4
115Southern Miss0-4
116Eastern Michigan0-4
117Tulane0-4
118Army0-4
119Memphis0-4
120Idaho0-5

2012 History

2012-09-28

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Houston over Atlanta

Somebody's gotta make some moves, I'm tired of putting "Houston over Atlanta" at the top. Baltimore climbed a bit with the win, though it's a bit of an unfair comparison to have a team that has finished 4 games and the rest that have only played 3. What is legitimate, however, is that they've solidified their chances at the division with a divisional win against Cleveland.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU3-00.57678.98888.26874.53542.21723.50312.644
ATL3-00.57278.60684.50168.07937.41620.28610.960
BAL3-10.56463.52779.83062.34834.31218.4919.736
ARI3-00.56154.04875.39657.95731.00016.3868.673
CHI2-10.55039.57655.09038.11319.72610.1175.243
SEA2-10.54923.57053.53635.70218.3369.4174.865
NYG2-10.54840.07856.64639.33520.16710.2695.297
NE1-20.53422.80837.65923.97212.0576.0593.004
SD2-10.52952.21265.31045.94023.08711.4375.612
MIN2-10.52432.69647.73231.39715.3457.4453.665
BUF2-10.51428.40148.43731.44715.2277.3293.484
NYJ2-10.51135.52851.48833.52316.1637.7283.658
SF2-10.51017.61738.92624.05811.3845.3972.583
GB1-20.50816.44725.18714.6166.8743.2321.539
PIT1-20.50415.49730.31618.0678.5424.0441.884
DEN1-20.50023.05534.96220.8409.7324.5432.098
MIA1-20.49813.26425.92314.8746.9003.2131.479
WAS1-20.49715.03424.28514.1026.4472.9501.374
DET1-20.48911.28218.92610.6014.7922.1670.993
TB1-20.48411.65020.93111.3895.1032.2901.038
DAL2-10.48125.97238.53322.76310.0394.4191.985
CIN2-10.47519.70640.14123.54910.4204.6112.017
NO0-30.4723.5717.5373.8321.6670.7280.321
STL1-20.4654.76512.2976.4132.7351.1740.509
JAC1-20.4607.05820.86410.9004.6322.0000.846
IND1-20.4597.68619.15610.1744.3351.8690.787
PHI2-10.45618.91628.04015.4396.4182.6671.132
OAK1-20.45311.17019.70910.3404.3241.8180.756
KC1-20.45213.56220.80011.0224.6031.9320.802
CLE0-40.4481.2693.6681.7400.7160.3000.123
CAR1-20.4476.17212.4386.2042.5521.0550.440
TEN1-20.4386.26713.4706.7292.7331.1240.451

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]

2012-09-27

eBay Wins #44

Here's another 1 cent card I grabbed from eBay. I've never heard of the guy, but according to my Zistle inventory I only had 2 cards from 2005 Topps Update. That means I'm now 50% further into the set for a mere penny! Statistics can be used to mislead intentionally!

2005 Topps Update
#UH288 Scott Mitchinson

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2017
Total Spent$38.58
Per Card1.913 cents

2012-09-25

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 3, Final

Houston over Atlanta

The ridiculous end to the MNF game didn't change the projected overall season outcome, but certainly affected the teams involved. Green Bay fell to just a 25% chance of making the playoffs, well below the mean (37.5% of teams make the playoffs). Let's look at what happens if the game ends 12-7 in favor of Green Bay.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA1-20.53412.12028.65617.2248.5184.1982.123
GB2-10.52731.38549.85332.71615.9847.8363.949

The strengths don't change immensely with a mere 7-point swing. However, the records do, and Green Bay's playoff odds would greatly improve with the win. Their Division and Wild Card chances have been nearly cut in half by that one bad call, while Seattle's Division and Wild Card chances have almost doubled. This is an interesting symmetry given that they are not in the same division, but is likely mostly coincidental, because the change in Division-winning odds obviously comes at the expense/gain of the teams in their respective divisions. Green Bay's Superbowl odds have been reduced even more than 50%, and Seattle's have more than doubled, too, compared the correct call results.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU3-00.57679.19888.54275.52043.11024.30513.076
ATL3-00.57278.62384.51368.08437.42120.28111.057
ARI3-00.56154.05275.40057.95531.00416.3878.751
CHI2-10.55039.58055.08438.10719.72210.1195.291
BAL2-10.54951.56968.11050.41126.86614.0727.183
SEA2-10.54923.57953.54835.71418.3409.4214.913
NYG2-10.54840.10756.68739.37020.19110.2875.354
NE1-20.53422.80937.90824.51112.4756.3323.138
SD2-10.52952.23165.60746.81323.80711.9195.850
MIN2-10.52432.69947.73031.40015.3467.4473.698
BUF2-10.51428.41248.97932.27215.8177.6863.656
NYJ2-10.51135.52651.85334.25516.7148.0703.817
SF2-10.51017.61038.91024.04711.3765.3942.607
GB1-20.50816.44625.18214.6046.8693.2291.551
PIT1-20.50418.99531.77319.2879.2144.3902.046
DEN1-20.50023.05935.25321.36310.1024.7592.198
MIA1-20.49813.25326.16515.2607.1713.3701.550
WAS1-20.49715.03524.30314.1146.4492.9501.387
DET1-20.48911.27518.91810.5954.7912.1671.003
TB1-20.48411.63920.92211.3825.0972.2861.046
DAL2-10.48125.95938.53422.76710.0364.4162.005
CIN2-10.47524.61241.77325.15611.2715.0232.196
NO0-30.4723.5657.5283.8281.6640.7270.323
STL1-20.4654.76012.2836.4042.7311.1720.514
CLE0-30.4634.8249.2534.8442.1030.9200.391
JAC1-20.4607.01421.09911.1614.7902.0950.887
IND1-20.4597.56219.20710.3244.4411.9400.819
PHI2-10.45618.89928.02715.4276.4132.6641.142
OAK1-20.45311.16519.91210.6214.4981.9110.794
KC1-20.45213.54620.99411.3144.7912.0300.841
CAR1-20.4476.17212.4316.1992.5511.0540.443
TEN1-20.4386.22713.5726.8882.8281.1770.472

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]

2012-09-24

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Houston over Atlanta

Houston remains the strongest team, but Atlanta moves right up behind them, and has the greatest chance among NFC teams of making the Superbowl.

I've added the strength column thanks to a question by Josh from Royals and Randoms. The strength is the Pythagorean Winning Percentage expectation, found from a statistic called PythagenPat, originating in Baseball Prospectus

Each time I run my simulations, the total number of points and games played thus far are used to find the points-per-game (ppg). An exponent, X, is defined as ppg0.287. The 0.287 is actually used for baseball, but I've yet to find a "better" value for football. Then, a team's Pythagorean Winning Percentage expectation is found using their Points For and Points Against, as PFX/(PFX + PAX). A team that has shut out every opponent will have a winning expection of 1.000, and a team with the same number of points for and against will have an expectation of .500, which makes sense.

Finally, I use a tactic from SportsClubStats.com, which is regressing the expectation to the mean. I do this by first subtracting .500, making all values between .500 and -0.500. Then I multiply by the percentage of the season passed so far, 3/16 for most of the teams below. Then the .500 is added back. This means that a team who has had nothing but shutouts for 3 games of the 16 game season would have a strength of .59375, and a team that has scored no points would have .40625. This keeps crazy results early in the season from showing a team with a huge chance of being the champion after 1 dominant game.

Denver has the same Points For and Points Against so far, and so are at exactly .500.

The strengths are used to simulate the games. If team x has strength xp, and team y has strength yp, team x's chances of beating team y are:
xp(1-yp) / (xp(1-yp) + yp(1-xp))
and vice versa for team y beating team x, and it can be seen this will sum to 1.

Then a random number is generated between 0 and 1 and used to determine the winner of the simulated game in a weighted fashion.  I run it at least 100,000,000 times, and The result is the lovely table of percentages below.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU3-00.57679.23488.53675.50543.09824.29313.103
ATL3-00.57278.63084.60168.26337.63420.47211.157
ARI3-00.56157.84876.19858.89731.62616.7638.956
CHI2-10.55036.81854.55537.79719.62010.0955.279
BAL2-10.54951.60268.12950.41526.87614.0817.212
NYG2-10.54840.10357.00239.64920.40210.4295.427
SEA1-10.53817.27840.74525.97513.0466.5613.352
NE1-20.53422.81537.99024.57312.5096.3483.156
SD2-10.52952.26065.61546.81823.81611.9175.867
MIN2-10.52430.59547.26631.19115.2867.4413.696
BUF2-10.51428.41449.05932.33115.8417.7023.674
GB1-10.51122.21735.30821.82210.3894.9252.383
NYJ2-10.51135.52651.93434.32616.7468.0873.837
SF2-10.51119.48040.04824.85611.7995.6112.712
PIT1-20.50418.98331.74719.2689.2074.3852.048
DEN1-20.50023.06135.23321.35210.0934.7582.205
MIA1-20.49813.24426.22615.2887.1813.3741.557
WAS1-20.49715.04224.52814.2476.5312.9971.410
DET1-20.48910.37018.67110.4994.7562.1570.996
TB1-20.48411.62321.11211.4955.1602.3261.063
DAL2-10.48125.96438.80022.97110.1574.4852.035
CIN2-10.47524.59341.72225.12111.2505.0142.199
NO0-30.4723.5517.6283.8841.6910.7410.329
STL1-20.4645.39512.7536.6632.8491.2270.537
CLE0-30.4634.8239.2364.8342.0990.9190.392
JAC1-20.4607.00421.04211.1244.7712.0850.885
IND1-20.4597.55319.18010.3104.4391.9380.820
PHI2-10.45618.89128.22715.5286.4722.7001.157
OAK1-20.45311.15219.87610.5964.4871.9040.792
KC1-20.45213.52820.95211.2854.7722.0230.841
CAR1-20.4476.19612.5596.2632.5811.0690.450
TEN1-20.4386.20913.5236.8552.8141.1730.472

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]

2012-09-23

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4


What?? Notre Dame? I didn't think they'd reach the top anytime in the next few years. A team I don't particularly like, Oregon, has climbed to number 2. Fitting for my opinion of them and Nike I suppose.

Missouri has fallen to 2-2 and #49 in my rankings. As I think I said before, this is going to be a tough year for the Tigers in the SEC.

Also, LSU only gains 2 spots, rising to #17, in part because Idaho, their last opponent, lost again, and is now dead last at #120.

1Notre Dame4-0
2Oregon4-0
3Florida4-0
4Florida State4-0
5Ohio4-0
6Alabama4-0
7Minnesota4-0
8Kansas State4-0
9South Carolina4-0
10Rutgers4-0
11Ohio State4-0
12Georgia4-0
13Mississippi State4-0
14Northwestern4-0
15Louisville4-0
16Stanford3-0
17LSU4-0
18Iowa State3-0
19West Virginia3-0
20Arizona State3-1
21Texas3-0
22Arizona3-1
23Texas Tech3-0
24North Carolina State3-1
25Miami (FL)3-1
26Clemson3-1
27Michigan State3-1
28Utah State3-1
29Wisconsin3-1
30Ball State3-1
31USC3-1
32Toledo3-1
33San Jose State3-1
34Ole Miss3-1
35Tennessee3-1
36Nevada3-1
37Louisiana Tech3-0
38TCU3-0
39Baylor3-0
40UCLA3-1
41Tulsa3-1
42Northern Illinois3-1
43Wake Forest3-1
44Duke3-1
45Nebraska3-1
46Virginia Tech3-1
47Oregon State2-0
48Western Kentucky3-1
49Missouri2-2
50Central Michigan2-1
51Boise State2-1
52Purdue2-1
53North Carolina2-2
54Cincinnati2-0
55South Florida2-2
56Oklahoma2-1
57Western Michigan2-2
58Illinois2-2
59Virginia2-2
60Iowa2-2
60Washington2-1
62Oklahoma State2-1
63Louisiana-Lafayette2-1
64Texas A&M2-1
65Marshall2-2
66Utah2-2
67Pittsburgh2-2
68UCF2-1
69Georgia Tech2-2
70Indiana2-1
71Penn State2-2
72Kent State2-1
73San Diego State2-2
74New Mexico2-2
75East Carolina2-2
76Michigan2-2
77Miami (OH)2-2
78Connecticut2-2
79Middle Tennessee2-1
80Arkansas State2-2
81Troy2-2
82Fresno State2-2
83Maryland2-2
84Brigham Young2-2
85Washington State2-2
86Syracuse1-3
87Kentucky1-3
88California1-3
89Hawaii1-2
90Auburn1-3
91Boston College1-2
92Vanderbilt1-3
93Temple1-2
94Navy1-2
95Southern Methodist1-2
96Kansas1-3
97Buffalo1-2
98UTEP1-3
99Rice1-3
100Florida Atlantic1-3
101Colorado State1-3
102Wyoming1-3
103Bowling Green1-3
104North Texas1-3
105Florida International1-3
106Louisiana-Monroe1-2
107Arkansas1-3
108UNLV1-3
109New Mexico State1-3
110Air Force1-2
111Akron1-3
112Colorado1-3
113Tulane0-3
114UAB0-3
115Eastern Michigan0-4
116Houston0-3
117Army0-3
118Southern Miss0-3
119Memphis0-4
120Idaho0-4

2012 History

2012-09-21

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Houston over Atlanta

New York moved up to being the strongest team in the NFC, and 3rd overall, but Atlanta is 2-0 in a weaker division, meaning they are still more likely to make the playoffs, thanks in no small part to the drubbing the Panthers took last night, keeping them as the most likely to make the Superbowl on the NFC side.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU2-069.88680.62564.10635.06918.93010.275
SD2-063.47277.89261.02833.06717.6809.519
NYG2-133.00752.50937.63420.18210.7865.626
BAL1-141.71156.01739.16220.53810.6955.654
SEA1-119.06739.03626.27113.7647.2093.687
NE1-131.96549.37833.94017.5038.9664.671
ATL2-057.69266.44048.69425.37213.1616.682
SF2-034.93156.51340.92821.10810.8675.458
ARI2-032.84152.34836.56618.2839.1364.465
CHI1-125.90936.76423.70711.7925.8532.854
DEN1-124.53145.23029.14214.1886.9123.420
GB1-128.77838.33124.44612.1045.9792.897
PIT1-130.50944.62928.59213.8806.7223.321
WAS1-119.53232.39820.95210.2985.0522.429
NYJ1-124.67938.66724.33411.6805.5912.729
PHI2-034.04249.75434.42516.8248.2083.930
MIA1-124.20439.54324.71011.8135.6312.746
MIN1-123.19132.70520.6359.9774.8072.278
STL1-113.16126.83416.7008.0563.8881.836
TB1-125.39335.74122.06510.6255.1082.411
BUF1-119.15234.85621.50610.1304.7612.289
DET1-122.12230.93018.9679.0164.2781.994
CLE0-210.39918.60810.5424.8182.2081.032
NO0-28.44413.1507.3063.3781.5600.705
IND1-117.87433.02419.2418.5523.8131.733
DAL1-113.42023.23413.7646.2342.8201.251
CIN1-117.38129.53816.8087.3643.2271.447
JAC0-26.13014.9557.7943.3341.4390.634
KC0-26.93114.1047.4833.2071.3810.606
OAK0-25.06611.7406.0042.5311.0770.466
CAR1-28.47113.3126.9382.9891.2870.543
TEN0-26.10911.1925.6102.3250.9690.411

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]

2012-09-20

Diamond Giveaway Winnings, Part II

[Part I]
I only paid for 25 cards to be delivered, and showed you the "rest" in the last post. Now here are the best, completely subjectively and based on my own opinion.

1954 Topps #118 Carl Scheib
1958 Topps #287 Sam Jones
1967 Topps #279 Frank Linzy
1979 Topps #181 Mike Garman
1980 Topps #554 Art Howe
1984 Topps #690 Jack Clark
So what do these 6 guys have in common to put them in the "best" category? They all played for the Cardinals, even if it was brief for some. The '54 Scheib up there really hosed up my perfect grid for scanning, and doesn't fit in any sleeves I have. Such is what we'll put up with for a nearly 60 year old card. And with Art Howe we've got a well known manager, a featured character of Moneyball, a former Cardinal, and the Tequila Sunrise Astros jersey, all in one card. He also looks a little like John Cleese. Finally, I can always use another Jack Clark card.


2011 Topps - Diamond Die Cuts #DDC-48
Oh yeah, I can't forget card #25. These Diamond Die-Cuts really don't scan nearly as nicely as they look in person. If one was made of one of your favorite players, I highly suggest tracking one down.

That's it for the Diamond Giveaway for me. I've pulled a few Golden Giveaway cards this year, but haven't redeemed them yet. I think I'll wait and see how obsessively I buy 2012 Update and then evaluate if I want to trade them off or try for more fabulous prizes.

2012-09-18

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 2, Final

Houston over Atlanta

Denver was highly ranked along with Atlanta, so the win vaulted them to the top of the NFC. I guess week 2 is a little early for words like vaulted. So far, Tennessee looks like the biggest loser, with a 0.4% chance of winning it all.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU2-069.89980.63864.10535.07118.93110.353
SD2-063.47877.46860.46632.75817.5159.508
BAL1-141.71856.48539.63620.78810.8265.766
SEA1-118.41838.34825.87013.6577.2203.697
NE1-131.96449.37933.94117.5018.9664.705
ATL2-051.00562.62846.40624.39112.7686.484
SF2-035.69557.71042.15321.90711.3825.721
ARI2-032.76452.65536.98918.6319.4044.598
CHI1-125.09736.06223.40311.7395.8802.868
DEN1-124.52844.59328.65613.9526.7973.390
GB1-129.56039.36125.33612.6396.2923.051
PIT1-130.50945.14629.04014.1066.8333.404
WAS1-124.00035.19422.80311.2735.5602.674
NYJ1-124.68438.65124.33211.6815.5912.756
PHI2-040.78753.07936.96118.1848.9144.263
MIA1-124.19739.52424.71111.8185.6362.771
CAR1-120.03732.52320.67310.1845.0132.396
MIN1-123.20732.91420.94610.2134.9702.357
NYG1-118.88330.99519.6979.5984.6672.210
STL1-113.12327.06616.9578.2464.0181.897
TB1-121.94333.44621.04610.2294.9672.345
BUF1-119.15534.84921.50010.1264.7632.308
DET1-122.13631.12619.2539.2304.4172.058
CLE0-210.39618.91310.7414.9092.2481.059
NO0-27.01412.1706.8823.2101.4970.677
IND1-117.86533.02319.2338.5443.8091.747
DAL1-116.33024.72314.6256.6693.0331.345
CIN1-117.37629.96217.1067.4963.2831.484
JAC0-26.12814.9497.7883.3321.4360.637
KC0-26.92713.7837.2953.1291.3480.595
OAK0-25.06711.4375.8352.4621.0470.457
TEN0-26.10811.2015.6142.3280.9710.417


First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]

2012-09-17

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Houston over San Francisco

With most of the week 2 games out of the way, I went ahead and ran another simulation. Houston is now better than a 10 to 1 shot to win it all. My Rams actually saw their chances at a Division championship reduced despite their narrow victory, because Seattle and San Francisco won big, and even Arizona stunned the New England by a slim margin. I wonder when the last time the NFC West went 4-0 in a week was, if it's ever happened in the 11 year history of the 8-division format.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU2-069.82180.17763.41534.63118.66810.251
SD2-057.89475.85158.57031.66116.9159.216
BAL1-141.67155.82138.95320.40310.6105.672
SEA1-118.37538.78526.29513.9347.4063.786
NE1-131.88048.56233.24417.1198.7634.621
SF2-035.61858.14342.69722.26511.6425.847
ATL1-041.08351.54036.19018.5319.4484.666
DEN1-031.79254.58637.06518.3729.0984.635
ARI2-032.91753.32737.76719.0969.6924.734
CHI1-125.06636.34623.80312.0076.0422.940
GB1-129.51339.61525.75812.9166.4633.130
PIT1-130.60344.52628.42913.7886.6713.339
WAS1-123.99935.61023.37411.6165.7522.765
NYJ1-124.71238.07823.86411.4425.4692.708
PHI2-040.78253.51237.72418.6639.1914.393
MIA1-124.23138.90124.21111.5575.5042.719
CAR1-123.96834.92222.34911.0585.4592.607
MIN1-123.16333.15021.29810.4365.1032.416
NYG1-118.88831.42720.2109.9024.8382.290
STL1-113.09027.40817.2848.4404.1361.953
TB1-126.26836.08822.82011.1395.4202.555
BUF1-119.17834.21421.0469.8994.6462.260
DET1-122.25831.60019.7629.5284.5862.136
CLE0-210.37618.45410.4324.7622.1791.033
NO0-28.68113.4547.6293.5751.6710.756
IND1-117.90632.46418.8478.3693.7231.714
DAL1-116.33125.07215.0396.8953.1501.398
CIN1-117.35029.33916.6617.2933.1921.451
JAC0-26.14614.5607.5733.2371.3930.620
KC0-25.93312.8436.7812.9061.2490.555
OAK0-24.38110.7155.4582.3000.9770.428
TEN0-26.12710.9115.4522.2620.9430.406

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]

2012-09-16

NCAA Football Power Ranking, Week 3

LSU pays a hefty price for slumming it against #118 Idaho this week, and they drop to #19 among the 23 3-0 Teams. Meanwhile, Stanford takes on the previously undefeated USC, and reaps the benefits of a big win. Of course, there's plenty of time for these rankings to change, and I expect LSU to reach at least near the top again.

I'll also point out that #65 TCU, at 2-0, is ranked below lots of 2-1 teams, including Miami all the way up at a tie for #24. Strength of Schedule plays a big part in these rankings, not only to break ties among the undefeated teams, but to show which teams are playing such an easy schedule they haven't really proven themselves better than teams with lesser records.

Finally, Missouri is clawing their way back up, sitting at #38 today, up from #85 last week.

1Stanford3-0
2Iowa State3-0
3Arizona3-0
4Alabama3-0
5Rutgers3-0
6Notre Dame3-0
7Florida3-0
8Georgia3-0
9Ohio State3-0
10Northwestern3-0
11Oregon3-0
12Clemson3-0
13Kansas State3-0
14Texas3-0
15Mississippi State3-0
16South Carolina3-0
17Ohio3-0
18Texas Tech3-0
19LSU3-0
20Florida State3-0
21UCLA3-0
22Louisville3-0
23Minnesota3-0
24West Virginia2-0
24Miami (FL)2-1
26Iowa2-1
27Ole Miss2-1
28Arizona State2-1
29South Florida2-1
30Cincinnati2-0
31Utah State2-1
32USC2-1
33Washington2-1
34Michigan State2-1
35Purdue2-1
36North Carolina State2-1
37Tennessee2-1
38Missouri2-1
39Oklahoma2-0
40Oklahoma State2-1
41Utah2-1
42Virginia2-1
43Ball State2-1
44Wisconsin2-1
45Nevada2-1
46Baylor2-0
47Duke2-1
48Georgia Tech2-1
49UCF2-1
50East Carolina2-1
51Western Kentucky2-1
52San Diego State2-1
53Connecticut2-1
54Michigan2-1
55Northern Illinois2-1
56Louisiana Tech2-0
57San Jose State2-1
58Brigham Young2-1
59Wake Forest2-1
60Indiana2-1
61Toledo2-1
62Virginia Tech2-1
63Nebraska2-1
64Louisiana-Lafayette2-1
65TCU2-0
66Illinois2-1
67Maryland2-1
68Middle Tennessee2-1
69Tulsa2-1
70Washington State2-1
71Fresno State2-1
72Oregon State1-0
73Pittsburgh1-2
74Syracuse1-2
75Auburn1-2
76Texas A&M1-1
77Temple1-1
78North Carolina1-2
79California1-2
80Boise State1-1
81Vanderbilt1-2
82Buffalo1-1
83Boston College1-2
84UTEP1-2
85North Texas1-2
86Marshall1-2
87Hawaii1-1
88Air Force1-1
89Kentucky1-2
90Rice1-2
91New Mexico State1-2
92Central Michigan1-1
93Louisiana-Monroe1-1
94New Mexico1-2
95Western Michigan1-2
96Penn State1-2
97Florida International1-2
98Arkansas1-2
99Troy1-2
100Kent State1-1
101Kansas1-2
102Bowling Green1-2
103Miami (OH)1-2
104Arkansas State1-2
105Southern Methodist1-2
106Florida Atlantic1-2
107Colorado State1-2
108Akron1-2
109Tulane0-2
110Eastern Michigan0-3
111Army0-2
112Southern Miss0-2
113Navy0-2
114Wyoming0-3
115UAB0-2
116Houston0-3
117UNLV0-3
118Idaho0-3
119Memphis0-3
120Colorado0-3

2012 History

2012-09-15

Diamond Giveaway Winnings, Part I

Here's a nice orderly view of 18 of the cards I won in the 2011 Topps Diamond Giveaway, ordered from oldest to newest. There's no overarching theme to these, except that they are the leftovers after picking 7 for my next post.

1958 Topps #222 Bud Daley
1958 Topps #422 Norm Zauchin
1964 Topps #323 John Buzhardt
1972 Topps #57 Bob Oliver
1973 Topps #129 Terry Forster
1975 Topps #644 Bill Fahey
1976 Topps #221 Jim Todd
1976 Topps #576 Maximino Leon
1976 Topps #647 Ramon Hernandez
These were mostly guys I haven't even heard of, despite being a baseball history nerd. But, cards older than me are always cool to get. Also, these are apparently the first 1976 Topps cards in my collection.

1978 Topps #280 Buddy Bell
1978 Topps #590 Bobby Murcer
1979 Topps #139 Luis Pujols
1979 Topps #683 Dan Meyer
1981 Topps #229 Rollie Fingers
1983 Topps #305 Larry Bowa
1983 Topps #533 Luis Salazar
1984 Topps #434 Harold Baines
1984 Topps #454 Joe Beckwith
This group definitely had more guys I know. I learned of Buddy Bell originally because the announcers would incessantly talk about the 3 generations of the Bell family in baseball when David Bell was on the Cardinals. Rollie Fingers is well known of course, and his signature facial hair is featured on this card. The Larry Bowa may be headed TTM to try to get a signature for a big Cubs-fan friend of mine, who idolized Bowa as a kid. Harold Baines, of course, played for many years, and in multiple stints with the White Sox and Orioles. I'll bet he's one of the few guys to have his number retired by a team, then play for them again 12 years later.

2012-09-14

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

The Green Bay-Chicago game didn't affect the final projection at all, but it did severely drop Chicago's odds. They were the second leading NFC team, and now fall somewhere in the middle. Of course, we're a week and a game into the season, so everyone is still prone to wild swings.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL1-049.58961.50744.49223.32212.1646.337
HOU1-047.98260.43443.85222.94111.9446.217
NE1-038.59857.05941.09721.45411.1685.800
NYJ1-038.47456.30539.96220.53710.5335.396
ATL1-036.36449.69934.61417.7609.1084.648
DEN1-036.17854.18238.29619.63910.0375.129
TB1-038.01851.54535.86218.3529.3904.780
SD1-038.41855.68839.32220.10710.2415.222
DAL1-032.62548.39733.43716.9618.5944.339
CHI1-119.98933.74722.05311.1535.6362.839
SF1-036.35249.81934.42417.4048.7884.427
GB1-123.58236.78123.91412.0236.0413.024
WAS1-029.90246.17631.63115.8797.9653.982
ARI1-035.34348.09132.67616.4088.2284.117
DET1-028.60843.86529.93614.9467.4573.709
MIN1-027.82142.09728.51514.1897.0543.496
PHI1-027.27442.26128.36114.0146.9243.413
CLE0-120.86232.40420.3469.9074.8202.353
JAC0-120.43731.50219.6659.5084.5982.232
STL0-115.28323.41014.1836.8553.3171.599
SEA0-113.02222.01513.2706.3773.0661.472
NO0-114.41822.64113.6616.5693.1631.517
NYG0-110.19919.80311.8625.6412.6851.275
OAK0-111.74023.45513.9956.5863.1021.467
CAR0-111.20019.65211.6005.4702.5821.216
PIT0-116.72825.68715.2287.1513.3601.584
KC0-113.66425.42315.3937.2193.3881.598
BUF0-111.03122.71813.4786.3122.9581.391
IND0-116.28725.98115.5477.2283.3611.568
TEN0-115.29423.45213.6536.2922.9001.344
MIA0-111.89721.80612.7045.8432.6921.244
CIN0-112.82122.39712.9715.9522.7351.264

[Week 1]

2012-09-13

eBay Wins #43

I've been scraping the bottom of the eBay barrel for penny cards again. This time, I get a former Cardinal, and the only River City Rascal with his number retired, Jack Clark.

1990 Donruss #128 Jack Clark

I don't actually remember Jack as a Cardinal, but I remember his managerial stint with River City, and he still does the Cardinals games on Fox Sports. At least I think he does, I ditched cable a few years ago and now get to see about 6 games a year from home, just the ones Fox airs nationally.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2016
Total Spent$38.57
Per Card1.913 cents

2012-09-11

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

I'm back for another year of projecting the Superbowl match up. You can read last year's Week 1 post for details on how this works, but it essentially boils down to using points for and points against to simulate the remaining games of the year stochastically, running a few million iterations, and reporting the percentage of times each team progressed to each level of the playoffs.

For the second consecutive year, Baltimore is the Week 1 favorite, because they had a dominating win. These percentages do take the toughness of the schedule into account, but it also assumes that the games so far show the true strength of a team, which a bad game could underestimate. So fear not, Carolina, your 1.2% chance of winning it all can still improve, as can my Rams' 1.6%.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL1-049.62361.51044.48123.31512.1606.334
HOU1-047.94760.51543.93722.98311.9716.229
NE1-038.59657.03341.07021.45311.1785.797
CHI1-033.17349.08934.47317.8299.2064.735
NYJ1-038.49756.30439.95120.53610.5195.384
ATL1-036.29949.64334.46217.6769.0604.627
DEN1-036.19654.17138.28519.63010.0345.124
TB1-038.01251.51135.71918.2779.3394.752
SD1-038.43855.66939.31520.09610.2365.214
DAL1-032.48148.23533.21916.8468.5294.302
SF1-036.04349.40833.93117.1538.6544.357
ARI1-035.51248.28032.71716.4098.2274.116
WAS1-029.91946.13031.49515.7967.9203.961
DET1-027.83544.24229.99514.9677.4723.720
MIN1-027.06542.42228.58214.2097.0633.501
PHI1-027.26842.21128.24513.9426.8743.387
CLE0-120.84932.36720.3159.8884.8072.344
JAC0-120.43431.60619.7449.5534.6152.240
STL0-115.35523.49714.2016.8543.3171.604
SEA0-113.08922.12313.3016.3913.0721.474
NO0-114.58222.80813.7236.5953.1751.522
GB0-111.92720.93712.5505.9922.8561.358
NYG0-110.33319.94011.9045.6572.6911.275
OAK0-111.71723.39313.9476.5703.0921.460
CAR0-111.10619.52311.4835.4062.5471.200
PIT0-116.70725.63915.1857.1283.3501.578
KC0-113.64825.36615.3507.2013.3781.589
BUF0-111.01822.65613.4456.2912.9511.387
IND0-116.36726.15015.6567.2753.3841.579
TEN0-115.25223.48913.6846.3082.9071.348
MIA0-111.88921.75512.6765.8292.6871.243
CIN0-112.82222.37812.9585.9462.7321.257

2012-09-10

A Trade Post is in Order, Part III

[Part I]
[Part II]

Thanks to my obsessive need to scan and post every insert card I receive, I got an email from The Angels, In Order about the Tyler Chatwood in this contest win post.

Here's the final part of my trade.

1997 Donruss Preferred
#45 Brian Jordan
I need one of these pullover warmup jerseys from the 90s.

2002 Upper Deck Victory
#599 Chuck Finley
Chuck Finley in the now seldom-seen Sunday home cap. It used to just be the Sunday cap.

2005 Topps Update
#UH117 Reggie Sanders
2005 NLDS cards in a 2005 set. I wonder how late these had to come out to manage that.

2011 Heritage
#26 Josh Thole
#328 Raul Ibanez
News Flashbacks #NF-10 Robinson Enshrined in Cooperstown
 My 2011 Heritage wantlist is quickly dwindling, so even 2 base and an insert are exciting at this point.

2012 Heritage
#147 World Series Game 6
#331 World Series Foes
I don't think 2012 Heritage is on my wantlist yet, because I'm still planning to buy some more, but I can always use 2 more cards commemorating last year's great World Series, especially game 6, which I stayed up for and found out the next morning most of my friends had given up on and went to bed, thinking we lost.

Then Albert left for the Angels. Though I'd transfer anywhere you wanted me to go for that kind of money, so I can't hassle him really.

Thanks to The Angels, In Order for the trade, and go follow his blog while you're reading so close to the helpful link I've left you here.

2012-09-09

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

LSU retains its #1 ranking it held after last year's championship loss (see this post for why they finished #1). The rankings are still rather preliminary, but I thought it was interesting that after just 2 weeks, and only 1 game by some teams, there are only 2 ties in the rankings, at #68 and #72.

On a Mizzou note, they took the lead early over Georgia and had a lead late into the 3nd quarter, but couldn't quite hold it together. I blame the lack of local St. Louis coverage, preventing me from watching the game on TV.

1LSU2-0
2Stanford2-0
3Alabama2-0
4UCLA2-0
5Iowa State2-0
6Arizona State2-0
7Texas Tech2-0
8Georgia2-0
9Arizona2-0
10Louisiana-Lafayette2-0
11Notre Dame2-0
12Oregon2-0
13South Carolina2-0
14Wake Forest2-0
15Kansas State2-0
16Louisville2-0
17Michigan State2-0
18Ohio2-0
19Maryland2-0
20Ohio State2-0
21Virginia Tech2-0
22Tennessee2-0
23Rutgers2-0
24Brigham Young2-0
25Virginia2-0
26Utah State2-0
27South Florida2-0
28Florida2-0
29Ole Miss2-0
30Clemson2-0
31Minnesota2-0
32Texas2-0
33Indiana2-0
34USC2-0
35Northwestern2-0
36Mississippi State2-0
37Oklahoma2-0
38Florida State2-0
39Purdue1-1
40East Carolina1-1
41Baylor1-0
42Michigan1-1
43Louisiana-Monroe1-0
44Oregon State1-0
45Rice1-1
46West Virginia1-0
47Iowa1-1
48Illinois1-1
49North Carolina1-1
50Temple1-1
51Washington1-1
52Buffalo1-1
53San Jose State1-1
54North Texas1-1
55Duke1-1
56Miami (FL)1-1
57Kentucky1-1
58North Carolina State1-1
59Georgia Tech1-1
60Middle Tennessee1-1
61New Mexico State1-1
62Central Michigan1-1
63Nevada1-1
64Utah1-1
65Washington State1-1
66Nebraska1-1
67Western Kentucky1-1
68Tulsa1-1
68Troy1-1
70Southern Methodist1-1
71Air Force1-1
72Toledo1-1
72Fresno State1-1
74Cincinnati1-0
75Arkansas1-1
76Oklahoma State1-1
77Kansas1-1
78Wisconsin1-1
79Northern Illinois1-1
80Western Michigan1-1
81Marshall1-1
82Louisiana Tech1-0
83TCU1-0
84New Mexico1-1
85Missouri1-1
86Ball State1-1
87Arkansas State1-1
88UCF1-1
89Miami (OH)1-1
90Bowling Green1-1
91San Diego State1-1
92Colorado State1-1
93Boston College1-1
94Kent State1-1
95Connecticut1-1
96California1-1
97Florida Atlantic1-1
98Florida International1-1
99Navy0-1
100Boise State0-1
101Texas A&M0-1
102Hawaii0-1
103Penn State0-2
104Vanderbilt0-2
105Auburn0-2
106UTEP0-2
107Syracuse0-2
108Southern Miss0-1
109UAB0-1
110Tulane0-2
111UNLV0-2
112Wyoming0-2
113Army0-1
114Pittsburgh0-2
115Eastern Michigan0-2
116Houston0-2
117Akron0-2
118Idaho0-2
119Memphis0-2
120Colorado0-2

2012 History

2012-09-08

A Trade Post is in Order, Part II

[Part I]

Thanks to my obsessive need to scan and post every insert card I receive, I got an email from The Angels, In Order about the Tyler Chatwood in this contest win post.

Here's the next part of my trade.

2008 Upper Deck Documentary
#854 Chris Duncan
 The back of this card talks about Braden Looper, and doesn't even mention Chris Duncan. This is an odd, 4000+ card set.

2008 Upper Deck First Edition
#50 Adam Wainwright
#51 Joel Pineiro
#57 Rick Ankiel

2007 Upper Deck Future Stars
#88 Chris Carpenter
#89 Chris Duncan
 I've mentioned before I'm not sure why this is called Future Stars with Carpenter well-established by 2007. And Chris Duncan? He's been in local sports radio for a few years now.

2011 Opening Day - Mascots
#M-8 Dinger
Now we're on to the wantlist stuff. In 2011 I bought a lot of Opening Day since it's cheap, and I've decided to collect the set and the inserts. Here's the Rockies' slightly-too-cute mascot.

2011 Opening Day - Superstar Celebrations
#SC-5 Ubaldo Jiminez
#SC-11 Jimmy Rollins
#SC-17 Prince Fielder
#SC-9 Nick Markakis
Seeing these cards together gets me antsy for the end-of-season pennant races and the playoffs. When these celebrations seem to happen more often due to the heightened sense of urgency to win.

There's just one more chunk of this trade to go.

2012-09-07

A Trade Post is in Order, Part I

Can't...resist...bad...puns...

Thanks to my obsessive need to scan and post every insert card I receive, I got an email from The Angels, In Order about the Tyler Chatwood in this contest win post. He sent me a pile of Cardinals, and - I must admit - I still owe him his card once I get a big enough pile of Angels together to send along. Here's the first part of the trade.

1992 Pinnacle
#6 Ozzie Smith
#69 Tom Pagnozzi
#186 Omar Olivares
#195 Lee Smith
#239 Jose Oquendo
#341 Jose DeLeon
 Now I have to try to get a full team set from 1992 Pinnacle. I can't have this many and not try for more!

1992 Topps Kids
#26 Pedro Guerrero
Topps Kids is one of the sets I like for some unknown reason. I think I'm drawn to the simpler, cheaper, kid-targeted sets.

2002 Topps
#245 Jim Edmonds
I think this is the first 2002 Topps card I've owned. I took a little hiatus from 2000-2010 from collecting.

2004 Donruss Studio
#179 Dan Haren
This card hurts me. To think, Dan Haren could still be in St. Louis, along with Carpenter and Wainwright. Although, I think it's that same type of rotation the Cardinals desired that led him to be traded for Mark Mulder in the first place. He's now with the Angels, so maybe I'll be sending one of him back.

2012-09-05

Another Contest, and a Newfound Blog

I noticed Ryan H's promotion for this contest on "O" No!!! Another Orioles Blog, and it turned out to be a blog I hadn't found yet. Here's the contest.

Apparently this gentleman calls himself the Big Kahuna. He sounds like trouble to me, but I'll take my chances for some fabulous prizes.

Just follow the link above, follow his blog, and comment with your MLB playoff picks for this year. No word on exactly what the prizes are, but those usually turn out to be interesting at least and ridiculously generous at best.

2012-09-04

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

I started these in week 3 last year, but just for completeness, I figured I'd start in week 1 this year. 70 teams are tied at #1! It's silly at this point, because every winning team beat a team with the same strength, an 0-1 team that lost to a 1-0 team, who beat a 0-1 team, ad infinitum. 43 teams are tied at #71, and therefore 7 FBS teams haven't played yet. Hopefully that's accurate. There are only 43 0-1 teams to the 70 1-0 teams, because of course some teams decide to play lower division teams in week 1, and generally they win. 

1South Carolina1-0
1UCF1-0
1Ball State1-0
1Central Michigan1-0
1Kent State1-0
1Utah1-0
1Connecticut1-0
1UCLA1-0
1New Mexico State1-0
1Utah State1-0
1Brigham Young1-0
1Arizona State1-0
1Minnesota1-0
1Temple1-0
1Tennessee1-0
1Michigan State1-0
1Florida Atlantic1-0
1Stanford1-0
1Notre Dame1-0
1Georgia1-0
1West Virginia1-0
1Ohio State1-0
1Troy1-0
1East Carolina1-0
1Northwestern1-0
1Ohio1-0
1Illinois1-0
1North Carolina1-0
1Air Force1-0
1Nevada1-0
1Maryland1-0
1Virginia1-0
1Wisconsin1-0
1Nebraska1-0
1Florida1-0
1Iowa State1-0
1Miami (FL)1-0
1Iowa1-0
1Purdue1-0
1Colorado State1-0
1New Mexico1-0
1Florida State1-0
1Wake Forest1-0
1LSU1-0
1Arkansas1-0
1Clemson1-0
1Oklahoma State1-0
1South Florida1-0
1Western Kentucky1-0
1Missouri1-0
1Ole Miss1-0
1Duke1-0
1Louisiana-Lafayette1-0
1Mississippi State1-0
1Kansas1-0
1Texas Tech1-0
1Kansas State1-0
1USC1-0
1Alabama1-0
1Texas1-0
1Indiana1-0
1Rutgers1-0
1Fresno State1-0
1Oklahoma1-0
1Oregon1-0
1Arizona1-0
1Washington1-0
1Louisville1-0
1Baylor1-0
1Virginia Tech1-0
71Buffalo0-1
71Marshall0-1
71Miami (OH)0-1
71Eastern Michigan0-1
71UAB0-1
71Pittsburgh0-1
71North Texas0-1
71Syracuse0-1
71Auburn0-1
71Penn State0-1
71Western Michigan0-1
71Florida International0-1
71Memphis0-1
71Akron0-1
71Idaho0-1
71Hawaii0-1
71Michigan0-1
71Wyoming0-1
71California0-1
71Rice0-1
71Houston0-1
71Washington State0-1
71Tulane0-1
71UTEP0-1
71Arkansas State0-1
71Toledo0-1
71Southern Miss0-1
71San Diego State0-1
71UNLV0-1
71Bowling Green0-1
71Kentucky0-1
71Southern Methodist0-1
71Georgia Tech0-1
71Tulsa0-1
71Boston College0-1
71Vanderbilt0-1
71Northern Illinois0-1
71North Carolina State0-1
71Middle Tennessee0-1
71Colorado0-1
71Boise State0-1
71San Jose State0-1
71Navy0-1