2011-11-29

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 12, Final

Green Bay over Houston.

Believe it or not, Green Bay still isn't in the playoffs for certain. And New Orleans came on strong last night to boost their chances and drop Green Bay back below 20% to win it all. Jacksonville can't win the AFC South but has an outside shot at a Wildcard, and the Rams, Colts, and Vikings are playing for draft picks.  We should see several teams eliminated and a few lock up spots next week.

From a gut reaction standpoint as opposed to the numbers, I think Baltimore has a better shot than Houston right now, although Leinert being out may only help their cause.


TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
GB11-099.909100.00099.90064.54235.57219.968
HOU8-398.35898.90480.54847.50127.45614.584
SF9-299.94499.98597.50258.98531.65617.382
BAL8-375.86398.23487.35150.51426.14812.951
NE8-398.76399.35486.39847.34824.92212.272
NO8-387.22695.65259.12526.83813.2146.591
DET7-40.06758.55132.99812.9585.6602.538
CHI7-40.02477.25941.76915.7476.6292.869
PIT8-318.98791.59059.18725.35410.8704.484
CIN7-45.15055.67829.17011.9565.0542.018
ATL7-412.76061.53527.0229.1623.5511.398
TEN6-51.64218.3796.9122.4440.9200.316
NYJ6-51.17727.04010.4883.6311.3460.460
MIA3-80.0010.0080.0030.0010.0000.000
DAL6-566.29667.20227.4648.1312.6640.920
PHI4-76.7656.8772.7720.8130.2650.091
SEA5-60.0564.4311.6410.4330.1350.042
OAK7-463.53168.41726.1727.7632.3620.692
BUF5-60.0591.9700.6370.1830.0570.016
NYG6-526.49627.6289.5652.3430.6440.187
SD4-71.2351.4190.4690.1300.0370.010
DEN6-534.68238.42112.5523.1580.8250.206
ARI4-70.0010.1380.0380.0080.0020.001
CAR3-80.0000.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
WAS4-70.4430.5720.1700.0360.0090.002
CLE4-70.0000.0290.0080.0020.0000.000
MIN2-9------
JAC3-8-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
TB4-70.0140.1690.0340.0050.0010.000
KC4-70.5520.5560.1050.0150.0020.000
STL2-9------
IND0-11------
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)

2011-11-28

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Green Bay over Houston

One more quick peek into the standings before the Giants take on the Saints.
Frankly, I have a hard time seeing Houston in the Superbowl with their QB situation.
Green Bay hasn't actually clinched a playoff spot, but their chances at at least 99.9995% and round to 100, however, a New Orleans loss tonight appears to clinch it for them.
The Rams and Vikings appear to be eliminated.
Tim Tebow has what should be a lower-tier team somehow in the mix.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
GB11-099.900100.00099.91364.62136.09120.262
HOU8-398.26198.85980.54447.49127.45114.676
SF9-299.94399.98698.41361.70033.18818.223
BAL8-375.84898.21687.33450.49626.13413.035
NE8-398.83599.38086.36847.32524.91312.355
NO7-378.55289.07251.13221.3149.7904.545
DET7-40.07360.79334.46413.5476.0022.693
CHI7-40.02777.40642.40616.0026.8292.957
PIT8-318.99691.66859.22025.37310.8814.530
CIN7-45.15556.03229.33512.0295.0842.050
ATL7-421.39862.53929.0169.8723.8501.516
TEN6-51.73919.0217.1592.5320.9540.331
NYJ6-51.10425.90010.0493.4801.2910.446
MIA3-80.0010.0090.0030.0010.0000.000
DAL6-556.10857.91223.8917.0932.3740.821
PHI4-75.0155.1982.1040.6180.2060.071
NYG6-438.55941.48016.5144.6791.5000.497
SEA5-60.0564.8451.9250.5090.1600.050
OAK7-463.53368.45026.1917.7732.3670.702
BUF5-60.0602.0230.6540.1880.0580.017
SD4-71.2361.4220.4700.1310.0370.010
DEN6-534.67838.43312.5613.1630.8270.209
ARI4-70.0010.1390.0430.0090.0020.001
CAR3-80.0020.0030.0010.0000.0000.000
WAS4-70.3180.4420.1350.0290.0070.002
CLE4-70.0000.0290.0080.0020.0000.000
MIN2-9------
JAC3-8-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
TB4-70.0480.1850.0420.0070.0010.000
KC4-70.5530.5570.1050.0150.0020.000
STL2-9------
IND0-11------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

Win a Big Pile of Cards

Go enter the contest at Royals and Randoms.  And of course, promote it for an extra entry like I am here.

Remember, the hole's natural enemy is the pile.  Think about it.

2011-11-27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

LSU holds on to #1, as always. I was really pulling against them this week, as I understood a loss by them would result in some sort of odd 3-way tie where Arkansas would win the SEC West, and LSU and Alabama could still wind up in the BCS Championship.  If nothing else it would force more scrutiny on the BCS, which is always a good thing.  Virginia Tech is back up to #2, and I'm surprised to see it's the BCS computers, not the polls, keeping them down.  Houston is stalking the idle Alabama at #4.  The top of my rankings actually aren't that far off from the BCS rankings this week, with a match at #1 and the same top 6.

In the reverse of the Virginia Tech situation, Missouri surprisingly showed up in the top 25 despite being absent from both polls.  The BCS computers ranked them as high as 15 and 16, whereas I have them at #42 this week.  With any luck, that will help them get a higher profile bowl game.

1LSU12-0
2Virginia Tech11-1
3Alabama11-1
4Houston12-0
5Stanford11-1
6Oklahoma State10-1
7Michigan10-2
8South Carolina10-2
9Boise State10-1
10USC10-2
11Georgia10-2
12Oregon10-2
13Wisconsin10-2
14Michigan State10-2
15Arkansas10-2
16Oklahoma9-2
17Kansas State9-2
18Nebraska9-3
19Clemson9-3
20Penn State9-3
21Southern Miss10-2
22TCU9-2
23Baylor8-3
24Arkansas State9-2
25Northern Illinois9-3
26West Virginia8-3
27Notre Dame8-4
28Toledo8-4
29Ohio9-3
30Rutgers8-4
31Virginia8-4
32Cincinnati8-3
33Tulsa8-4
34Georgia Tech8-4
35North Carolina7-5
36Florida State8-4
37Texas7-4
38Louisiana Tech8-4
39Auburn7-5
40Louisville7-5
41Brigham Young8-3
42Missouri7-5
43North Carolina State7-5
44Washington7-5
45Iowa7-5
46Temple8-4
47Wyoming7-4
48California7-5
49Utah7-5
50Louisiana-Lafayette8-4
51Iowa State6-5
52San Diego State7-4
53Florida International8-4
54Southern Methodist7-5
55Texas A&M6-6
56Air Force7-5
57Western Michigan7-5
58Miami (FL)6-6
59Florida6-6
60Western Kentucky7-5
61Ohio State6-6
62Illinois6-6
63Mississippi State6-6
64Vanderbilt6-6
65Marshall6-6
66Wake Forest6-6
67UCLA6-6
68Arizona State6-6
69Eastern Michigan6-6
70Ball State6-6
71Purdue6-6
72Pittsburgh5-6
73Utah State6-5
74Northwestern6-6
75Tennessee5-7
76Nevada6-5
77South Florida5-6
78Syracuse5-6
79Texas Tech5-7
80Kentucky5-7
81Connecticut5-6
82Kent State5-7
83Bowling Green5-7
84Hawaii6-6
85East Carolina5-7
86UTEP5-7
87Navy4-7
88San Jose State5-7
89Arizona4-8
90UCF5-7
91Boston College4-8
92Rice4-8
93North Texas4-7
94Fresno State4-8
95Washington State4-8
96Minnesota3-9
97Miami (OH)4-8
98New Mexico State4-8
99Oregon State3-9
100Duke3-9
101Central Michigan3-9
102Louisiana-Monroe3-8
103Colorado3-10
104Kansas2-10
105Maryland2-10
106Army3-8
107Buffalo3-9
108Ole Miss2-10
109Troy3-8
110Colorado State3-8
111UAB3-9
112Idaho2-9
113UNLV2-9
114Middle Tennessee2-9
115Indiana1-11
116New Mexico1-10
117Memphis2-10
118Florida Atlantic1-10
119Tulane2-11
120Akron1-11

2011-11-26

Another Contest win at Sports Card Info

Many of you know Sports Card Info runs a weekly contest where you can enter by commenting on the contest post up to once per day.  I won one last July, and another just a few weeks ago.  Here's the nice Relic of Niklas Backstrom, a little blurrier than I realized:
2011-2012 ITG Canada Vs The World

Not only did he send me this card for free, but included two bonus packs:
2010 Panini Adrenalyn XL

I don't really collect football cards too seriously, so I didn't know what this product was.  Apparently you can enter the codes from the cards to play a game online.  I believe this game is expired, but if not, and if anyone wants the codes off the back, drop me an email and I'll send them.  Or, I'd be willing to trade the physical cards for some baseball stuff off my wantlist as well.


Sadly, no Rams were inside.  There was former Mizzou Tiger Justin Gage, though.

A big thanks to Ross at Sports Card Info for the contest and the bonus!

2011-11-25

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Green Bay over Baltimore

Note that Houston is a stronger team than Baltimore at the moment, but they're more likely to run into stronger teams in the playoffs.  It's kind of an odd scenario, which culminates in Houston being slightly less likely that Baltimore to make the Superbowl.  As of now, Green Bay could clinch the NFC North next week thanks to their continued undefeated season.

On a side note, I'm kind of glad the Rams didn't draft Ndamukong Suh last year, even though I pushed for it on Twitter.  That kind of on-field stuff doesn't play well in St. Louis, and he'd be run out of town and we'd be out a lot of money.  Not that we're holier-than-thou here; we'll put up with all kinds of off-field shenanigans.  But that's a rant for another time.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
GB11-099.54299.97599.79966.00636.87021.261
SF9-299.62099.98098.52361.83333.41418.860
HOU7-397.67998.83183.32149.02927.88314.312
BAL8-379.86596.90989.37854.14529.21514.575
NE7-396.02598.68583.56344.19022.48610.509
NO7-383.85793.22756.89223.70310.8945.227
DET7-40.06332.36718.6547.3413.2701.518
CHI7-30.39565.98538.10814.7426.4242.930
PIT7-315.74574.73951.13521.9809.4743.822
CIN6-44.35527.44817.5117.3643.1621.255
PHI4-611.93415.3566.8662.2260.8250.323
ATL6-415.86761.40527.0018.6433.2051.246
NYJ5-51.94536.84614.3545.0561.9220.651
TEN5-52.28327.82310.5643.7161.4050.470
MIA3-80.0160.3870.1400.0470.0180.006
DAL6-550.93456.82223.9897.1112.3960.863
NYG6-437.01946.90919.1795.4191.7510.604
SEA5-50.38025.53210.3502.8610.9260.315
BUF5-52.01421.2897.5492.3090.7640.224
OAK6-455.00062.54424.1707.2592.2760.658
SD4-613.70416.1645.7401.6920.5230.148
DEN5-529.20235.48011.9223.0950.8500.214
ARI3-70.0000.4840.1460.0300.0080.002
CAR2-80.0040.0120.0040.0010.0000.000
WAS3-70.1130.3290.0970.0190.0050.001
CLE4-60.0350.2900.1010.0230.0060.001
MIN2-8-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
JAC3-70.0380.2130.0490.0100.0020.001
TB4-60.2721.6180.3930.0650.0130.003
KC4-62.0952.3520.5030.0830.0150.002
STL2-8-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
IND0-10------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

2011-11-24

eBay Wins #8

Oddly enough, Thorzul posted this card on Tuesday as he got it from the Diamond Giveaway.  I bought it on eBay for 35 cents awhile back, and it was the next one in my queue to post.


I don't think I can weave a tale any better than Thorzul's about Carl Morton inspiring the Morton's Salt logo.  Unless...

Morton's Steakhouse?
Morton Hears a Who?
Morton Antivirus?
Trust the Morton's Fisherman?

Nah, it's Thanksgiving, there's Turkey to be eaten!  Instead, I'll just introduce my eBay tracker, in its nascent form, to keep track of my eBay bargain hunting.

eBay Tracker
Total Cards Bought97
Total Spent$2.80
Per Card2.89 cents

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

2011-11-22

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Final

San Francisco over Houston

San Francisco's big win puts them back on top of the NFL, and Houston stays atop the AFC during a bye week with Baltimore's narrow win.  There's been one more elimination, as the Rams can no longer win the NFC West at 2-8.  One flaw in this particular system may be that it does not take into account the strength of opponents, only the scores of the games.  So San Francisco's big win this week against the Cardinals moves them ahead of Green Bay, who beat a slightly better team.  In fact, even if Green Bay had beaten another 9-0 team by the same score, the results would be the same.  Even so, I'll stick to my guns and say as of now San Francisco is my Superbowl pick.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF9-199.82099.99199.26162.83535.37820.436
GB10-093.29298.34496.54860.36832.09018.024
HOU7-397.71898.85884.65550.97929.83415.615
BAL7-363.11191.28278.38444.10622.70810.903
NE7-395.93598.62284.18045.88623.92611.417
DET7-34.50447.26430.02713.1196.1082.998
NO7-383.66193.55556.65824.07111.3165.549
CHI7-32.20553.48631.89512.9195.7112.665
PIT7-328.61376.69656.00625.36211.1424.599
CIN6-48.20430.71220.3498.9473.9311.597
PHI4-614.81317.9777.8312.6380.9950.400
ATL6-416.05763.25727.4869.1723.4451.373
NYJ5-51.93736.55114.6015.3382.0700.718
TEN5-52.24327.40310.6503.9011.5040.517
MIA3-70.1271.8250.6790.2430.0930.032
DAL5-540.68845.06318.3005.5881.9170.705
NYG6-444.22552.10020.7996.1182.0180.715
SEA5-50.18026.17710.4703.0330.9900.346
BUF5-52.00220.8497.6052.4300.8210.247
OAK6-454.98962.54124.4107.6452.4600.730
SD4-613.78116.3115.8271.7860.5660.165
DEN5-529.10135.35111.9503.2440.9160.236
ARI3-70.0000.5080.1540.0340.0090.002
CAR2-80.0040.0150.0050.0010.0000.000
WAS3-70.2740.4860.1390.0290.0070.002
CLE4-60.0720.4110.1450.0350.0090.002
MIN2-8-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
JAC3-70.0380.2010.0470.0110.0030.001
TB4-60.2771.7780.4290.0760.0160.003
KC4-62.1292.3890.5100.0880.0160.003
STL2-8-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
IND0-10------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

2011-11-21

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

Here's one more quick peek into the updated projections before MNF.  The last few weeks have fluctuated a lot between SF/GB in the NFC and HOU/BAL in the AFC.  The 49ers break the 20% mark, so right now I give them a better than 1 in 5 shot at winning it all.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF9-199.82099.99199.26262.83635.38020.791
GB10-093.09298.29996.43760.27232.04118.322
HOU7-397.71998.88387.36354.97932.96017.253
BAL7-363.86791.45779.81446.49424.57111.800
DET7-34.69948.15230.61713.3876.2323.125
NO7-383.66293.52956.64224.07511.3145.668
CHI7-32.20852.61231.37212.7105.6202.680
NE6-390.80595.70774.21135.53816.6927.056
PIT7-327.75175.98055.98426.20811.8624.895
CIN6-48.30831.20021.0289.5924.3491.766
PHI4-615.64218.9608.2602.7831.0500.432
ATL6-416.05663.19727.4669.1643.4421.408
NYJ5-54.59635.68715.4465.8092.3000.798
TEN5-52.24327.91511.7804.4731.7560.603
MIA3-70.3912.1430.8830.3200.1250.043
DAL5-540.29144.72618.1625.5461.9020.718
NYG6-443.76551.65120.6176.0641.9990.728
SEA5-50.18026.07210.4293.0200.9860.355
BUF5-54.20822.6609.0872.9701.0260.309
OAK6-452.40060.17624.2507.8632.6270.779
SD4-613.50916.1075.8691.8650.6140.178
DEN5-528.73935.12012.3773.4661.0180.262
ARI3-70.0000.5030.1530.0340.0090.002
CAR2-80.0040.0150.0040.0010.0000.000
WAS3-70.3030.5340.1530.0320.0080.002
CLE4-60.0740.4260.1580.0400.0110.002
MIN2-8-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
JAC3-70.0380.2080.0520.0120.0030.001
KC4-55.3516.3311.6990.3700.0860.017
TB4-60.2771.7590.4250.0750.0160.004
STL2-8-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
IND0-10------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

2011-11-20

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

As expected, LSU stays on top.  Spankee's Hokies get overtaken by Alabama at #3.  Houston might become another story of national interest as they'll insist they should get a shot at the title, but the BCS will likely keep them out.  Although, an LSU loss this week could leave Houston as the only 12-0 team, making the choice to leave them out that much tougher.

1LSU11-0
2Oklahoma State10-1
3Alabama10-1
4Virginia Tech10-1
5Houston11-0
6Arkansas10-1
7Kansas State9-2
8Stanford10-1
9Michigan9-2
10Penn State9-2
11Clemson9-2
12Boise State9-1
13South Carolina9-2
14Georgia9-2
15USC9-2
16TCU9-2
17Oregon9-2
18Michigan State9-2
19Wisconsin9-2
20Oklahoma8-2
21Nebraska8-3
22Arkansas State9-2
23Southern Miss9-2
24Notre Dame8-3
25Rutgers8-3
26Baylor7-3
27Virginia8-3
28Georgia Tech8-3
29Tulsa8-3
30Northern Illinois8-3
31Auburn7-4
32West Virginia7-3
33Ohio8-3
34Toledo7-4
35Utah7-4
36Brigham Young8-3
37Louisiana-Lafayette8-3
38Iowa7-4
39North Carolina6-5
40Cincinnati7-3
41Wyoming7-3
42Florida State7-4
43Texas6-4
44Iowa State6-4
45Louisiana Tech7-4
46Miami (FL)6-5
47Texas A&M6-5
48Missouri6-5
49North Carolina State6-5
50Illinois6-5
51Florida6-5
52Louisville6-5
53Temple7-4
54Washington6-5
55Wake Forest6-5
56San Diego State6-4
57Ohio State6-5
58Florida International7-4
59California6-5
60Arizona State6-5
61UCLA6-5
62Eastern Michigan6-5
63Southern Methodist6-5
64Air Force6-5
65Tennessee5-6
66Western Michigan6-5
67Ball State6-5
68Pittsburgh5-5
69Nevada6-4
70Northwestern6-5
71Western Kentucky6-5
72South Florida5-5
73Mississippi State5-6
74Texas Tech5-6
75Syracuse5-5
76Marshall5-6
77Vanderbilt5-6
78Purdue5-6
79Kent State5-6
80UTEP5-6
81East Carolina5-6
82Utah State5-5
83Navy4-7
84Kentucky4-7
85Bowling Green4-7
86Rice4-7
87Hawaii5-6
88Connecticut4-6
89North Texas4-7
90Fresno State4-7
91Washington State4-7
92San Jose State4-7
93UCF4-7
94Miami (OH)4-7
95Arizona3-8
96New Mexico State4-7
97Oregon State3-8
98Duke3-8
99Boston College3-8
100Louisiana-Monroe3-8
101Kansas2-9
102Central Michigan3-9
103Maryland2-9
104Buffalo3-8
105Minnesota2-9
106Ole Miss2-9
107Army3-8
108Troy3-7
109UAB3-8
110Colorado State3-7
111UNLV2-8
112Colorado2-10
113Idaho2-9
114Indiana1-10
115Middle Tennessee2-8
116New Mexico1-10
117Tulane2-10
118Memphis2-9
119Akron1-10
120Florida Atlantic0-10

2011-11-19

eBay Wins #7

It must have been a 2005 kind of day.

2005 Topps Turkey Red David Wright for $0.15

2005 Topps Heritage Mark Teixeira for $0.10


2005 Bowman Heritage Roger Clemens and Mark Teixeira for $0.10 each

I spent a big 45 cents for 4 cards there.  I also just noticed they're all New York guys, at least at some point in their careers.

2011-11-18

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Houston over Green Bay

Ok, so the end result didn't change, but I think it's interested to see the effects of just one game compared to the end of Week 10.  Tim Tebow shocking the Jets really changed the potential fortunes for those two teams. The Jets dropped from 42% to under 26%, while the Broncos jumped from 20% to 32%.  The jump was so big because the Broncos weren't supposed to win this game.  Of course, each team's respective divisional rivals experienced inverse effects, with San Diego, Oakland, and even Kansas City seeing their playoff chances reduced, and New England, Buffalo, and yes, even the lowly Dolphins, getting a bump.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU7-394.78597.63885.29253.74732.71617.900
GB9-092.89898.39696.05459.73032.55218.302
SF8-199.61799.95597.96559.14431.99717.832
BAL6-345.86576.30563.05335.31718.4179.071
NO7-388.63495.60260.42927.63213.6326.910
DET6-34.70448.77629.93013.3416.3113.104
NE6-382.78792.99671.34434.83916.5477.377
CIN6-321.36548.08535.89317.7598.4023.740
CHI6-32.39851.55329.46412.1215.3922.499
PIT7-332.73373.42455.50226.68312.2265.330
PHI3-69.12713.3495.8132.0150.7710.310
ATL5-410.59850.31021.6337.4882.8861.162
TEN5-45.05533.96615.9906.4442.6370.996
NYJ5-53.90225.79011.4164.3861.7570.648
BUF5-413.23340.61220.5427.9323.1331.148
NYG6-363.82173.06932.50010.7443.8591.479
DAL4-525.27234.74214.5654.7121.6760.634
SD4-523.44625.55810.0143.4511.2090.397
OAK5-441.73645.91417.6835.7221.8760.577
SEA4-50.33222.2748.1232.2550.7030.231
MIA2-70.0790.3380.1200.0370.0130.004
ARI3-60.0503.3861.1540.3090.0940.030
DEN5-528.99832.19111.2173.2370.9600.265
CAR2-70.0490.2570.0830.0200.0060.002
WAS3-61.7803.2370.9780.2270.0590.017
MIN2-7-0.0060.0020.0000.0000.000
CLE3-60.0380.2000.0690.0180.0050.001
JAC3-60.1600.6520.1830.0470.0120.003
TB4-50.7205.0661.3030.2610.0600.014
KC4-55.8216.3311.6820.3800.0900.020
STL2-70.0000.0240.0050.0010.0000.000
IND0-10------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

2011-11-17

A Great Trade from Card Anathema

Matt at Card Anathema recently contacted me with an offer I couldn't refuse: a whole bunch of Topps Series 1 for a single card he was missing.  I managed to add a few Series 2 off his want list as well.  Here's what he sent me:

You've all seen 2011 Topps by now, so here's one representative sample, and the list

Brendan Ryan in a Movember-appropriate shot.

2011 Topps
5 Joey Votto
8 Julio Borbon
19 Derek Lowe
27 Ben Zobrist
30 Gio Gonzalez
43 Brendan Ryan
53 Arizona Diamondbacks
55 Matt Joyce
72 Jair Jurrjens
73 James McDonald
77 Tim Hudson
99 Ben Revere
102 CC Sabathia
129 Lucas Duda
137 Xavier Nady
140 Brett Anderson
141 Ubaldo Jimenez
145 Freddie Freeman
163 Carlos Pena
169 Chipper Jones
172 Lyle Overbay
175 Brennan Boesch
181 Magglio Ordonez
197 Aaron Hill
207 Angel Pagan
209 Carlos Santana
221 Scott Hairston
226 Jose Guillen
229 Jonathan Sanchez
241 Wandy Rodriguez
250 Carlos Gonzalez
251 Alcides Escobar
252 Michael Saunders
260 Freddy Sanchez
275 Clayton Kershaw
282 Buster Posey
283 Colorado Rockies
291 Juan Gutierrez
320 Michael Young

As if that wasn't enough, he also sent along some 1990 Score for no reason in particular, other than being a good guy.
I actually had to look up and see if I remembered correctly that Gerald Perry was a Cardinal.

1990 Score
37 Lee Smith
43 Gerald Young
57 Frank Tanana
243 Derek Lilliquist
246 Scott Garrelts
249 Gerald Perry
357 Dave LaPoint
363 Mark Carreon
377 Don Aase
533 Curt Young
536 Lance Blankenship

A big thanks to Matt, and go check out Card Anathema!

2011-11-15

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 10

Houston over Green Bay

I actually ran my numbers during the MNF game and Green Bay wasn't favored until the final touchdown was scored, so they are very close to San Francisco in strength, enough that a 7 point swing could put the 49ers back on top of the NFC.  Minnesota is eliminated from winning the NFC North.  Even if they can tie Green Bay, they've already lost to them twice.  I'm less clear on how a 3 way tie or 4 way tie could play out, but as far as I can tell Minnesota can't come out on top in any of them.  In the NFC West, I've heard that this is the first week since the 2002 realignment that all 4 teams have won their respective games.

On the AFC side, Houston's convincing win and Baltimore's loss to a lowly NFC West team has put the Texans back on top.  Indianapolis is finally officially out of the playoffs, though again, I'd have to draw out their best-case scenario by hand to prove it for sure

I'm looking forward to the last of the byes this week.  It makes my numbers feel much less quirky, especially when it comes to ranking 7-3 teams against 6-3 teams.


TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU7-394.80997.23084.25753.05032.31517.678
GB9-092.88998.38996.04559.71832.55218.328
SF8-199.61899.95597.96859.17232.01317.867
BAL6-345.87276.18262.68635.09918.3439.034
NO7-388.63895.60460.43627.63213.6306.920
DET6-34.70248.68129.85913.3056.2963.101
NE6-378.26191.48170.24634.40416.3547.291
CIN6-321.35447.87335.40317.5178.3143.700
CHI6-32.40951.62829.50212.1365.3972.506
PIT7-332.73673.31055.03126.46312.1575.297
PHI3-69.12113.3775.8292.0210.7720.311
ATL5-410.59450.27721.6287.4852.8851.164
TEN5-45.03128.66713.6645.5292.2710.857
NYJ5-49.44942.24120.8388.2343.3381.252
BUF5-412.23436.22318.5857.1902.8391.040
NYG6-363.73173.02032.48510.7383.8531.477
DAL4-525.37534.81614.5984.7211.6800.636
SD4-526.28927.68210.8553.7541.3130.431
OAK5-447.61850.13319.2006.2332.0420.627
SEA4-50.33222.2938.1252.2550.7030.232
MIA2-70.0560.2750.0970.0300.0100.003
ARI3-60.0503.3901.1570.3100.0940.030
DEN4-519.25620.7957.0122.0050.5870.160
CAR2-70.0490.2560.0820.0200.0060.002
WAS3-61.7743.2290.9780.2260.0590.016
MIN2-7-0.0060.0020.0000.0000.000
CLE3-60.0380.1970.0660.0170.0050.001
JAC3-60.1600.4980.1420.0370.0100.002
TB4-50.7195.0551.3000.2600.0600.015
KC4-56.8377.2121.9160.4370.1020.022
STL2-70.0000.0240.0050.0010.0000.000
IND0-10------
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

2011-11-14

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

Into the home stretch, LSU and Oklahoma State are holding on at #1 and #2.  Oklahoma's idle week drops them from #3 to #8, swapping with Virginia Tech.  Another notable drop was Stanford, from #4 to #11.  On the other end, New Mexico wins and leaves Florida Atlantic as the only winless team and at #120 in the FBS.

1LSU10-0
2Oklahoma State10-0
3Virginia Tech9-1
4Clemson9-1
5Alabama9-1
6Houston10-0
7Oregon9-1
8Oklahoma8-1
9Arkansas9-1
10Southern Miss9-1
11Stanford9-1
12Kansas State8-2
13Nebraska8-2
14Penn State8-2
15Michigan8-2
16Michigan State8-2
17Boise State8-1
18South Carolina8-2
19TCU8-2
20Georgia8-2
21USC8-2
22Arkansas State8-2
23Wisconsin8-2
24Notre Dame7-3
25West Virginia7-3
26Georgia Tech7-3
27Rutgers7-3
28Louisiana-Lafayette8-3
29Cincinnati7-2
30Tulsa7-3
31Virginia7-3
32Florida State7-3
33Baylor6-3
34North Carolina6-4
35Texas6-3
36Northern Illinois7-3
37Auburn6-4
38Washington6-4
39Illinois6-4
40Toledo6-4
41Ohio7-3
42Utah6-4
43Brigham Young7-3
44Wyoming6-3
45Iowa6-4
46Ohio State6-4
47Eastern Michigan6-4
48Arizona State6-4
49San Diego State6-3
50Southern Methodist6-4
51California6-4
52Texas A&M5-5
53Louisiana Tech6-4
54Nevada6-3
55Miami (FL)5-5
56Ball State6-4
57South Florida5-4
58Missouri5-5
59Iowa State5-4
60Pittsburgh5-5
61Temple6-4
62Wake Forest5-5
62Texas Tech5-5
64North Carolina State5-5
65Louisville5-5
66Mississippi State5-5
67Vanderbilt5-5
68Florida5-5
69Florida International6-4
70Air Force5-5
71Syracuse5-5
72Purdue5-5
73UCLA5-5
74Western Michigan5-5
75Western Kentucky5-5
76Northwestern5-5
77UTEP5-5
78Tennessee4-6
79Marshall4-6
80Navy4-6
81Kent State4-6
82Hawaii5-5
83Kentucky4-6
84East Carolina4-6
85Connecticut4-5
86North Texas4-6
87Bowling Green4-6
88Utah State4-5
89Washington State4-6
90UCF4-6
91Miami (OH)4-6
92Rice3-7
93New Mexico State4-6
94Duke3-7
95Boston College3-7
96Louisiana-Monroe3-7
97Kansas2-8
98Fresno State3-7
99Maryland2-8
100Minnesota2-8
101Central Michigan3-8
102San Jose State3-7
103Army3-7
104Arizona2-8
105Ole Miss2-8
106Colorado State3-6
107Oregon State2-8
108Buffalo2-8
109Colorado2-9
110UNLV2-7
111Troy2-7
112Idaho2-8
113Indiana1-9
114Middle Tennessee2-7
115UAB2-8
116New Mexico1-9
117Tulane2-9
118Memphis2-8
119Akron1-9
120Florida Atlantic0-9

2011-11-10

A Contest win from The Diamond King

I won a contest at The Diamond King over a month ago.  He was kind enough to offer up some Beat Up Vintage for merely answering a question on his blog. 

1979 Topps
#411 Sisler/Cobb
#415 Brock/Brock - I love that he gets featured twice on 1 card
#430 Dave Parker

1974 Topps
2 Hank Aaron 54-57
4 Hank Aaron 62-65
He sent 2 of each of these!

1973 Topps #400 Gaylord Perry

1972 Topps #37 Carl Yastrzemski

1971 Topps
#180 Al Kaline
#525 Ernie Banks
These were looking pretty rough, so I didn't even pull them out of the sleeve.

1955 Bowman #216 Preacher Roe
Man is this one beat up, but I don't care; it's 56 years old!

1993 Topps - Gold #119 Pedro Munoz

1994 Topps - Black Gold #42 Sammy Sosa

I'm a fan of the Topps Gold and Black Gold, especially from 1992, so these are great additions.

Next up, some Nomars!
2002 Fleer Genuine #93

1999 Upper Deck MVP - Swing Time #S6

1999 Upper Deck HoloGrFX - Starview #S6

1998 Studio #60
I really liked Studio, in fact I have the whole set of 8x10s from 1997


The Vintage was the real prize in the contest, with the Gold and Nomars thrown in since they are some of my favorites.  I really enjoy the 70s cards (and 50s!) because I started collecting in the 90s and don't have a lot of older stuff.  Even though I was a big Nomar fan, my collecting waned around 1999-2000, so those cards nicely fill in some gaps too.

A big thanks to the Diamond King!  And go check out his blog!

2011-11-08

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 9

San Francisco over Houston (just barely)

Houston's big win and Baltimore's narrow victory brought the Texans back to the top of the AFC.  Their chanced at the Super Bowl are just .04% greater than Baltimore, largely because they have a less competitive division to try to win.

San Francisco might doze off in a few weeks with no competition behind them either, or they might rest everyone and blast through the playoffs on fresh legs.

Finally, at the end of the chart, you see that Indy still has a chance at making the playoffs, but never made it to the Super Bowl in my 160 million simulations.  This doesn't mean they can't, of course, because once you're in the playoffs, anything could happen.  It just means that, right now, the chances are roughly less than 1 in 160 million.

Have I addressed here yet that I think the Rams could pull some shenanigans and wind up better off? If they could get someone to take on most of Bradford's contract, and wind up drafting a QB such as Luck, they'd probably upgrade for less money thanks to the new rookie pay rules.  Don't get me wrong, I like Sam, but I like winning football better, and there's a mild chance more money might buy us that.


TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF7-199.5899.8795.2056.2631.2017.53
DET6-220.9380.4356.0529.6915.738.58
HOU6-395.4996.2973.2842.4323.5612.24
BAL6-255.1186.8973.6742.3823.5212.19
GB8-077.1497.2188.1248.6624.6413.07
NO6-369.1986.5552.9825.5012.876.68
CIN6-233.9268.5553.4327.5514.036.71
BUF5-334.3763.3043.8421.009.954.48
PIT6-310.8842.4528.0213.066.142.71
NYJ5-329.8559.0938.9718.008.263.60
NE5-335.7765.5344.0220.209.173.96
CHI5-31.9321.6011.614.742.010.88
PHI3-514.7324.9511.124.291.740.74
ATL5-327.0362.4828.6711.124.501.92
NYG6-275.4182.6141.3415.506.032.49
SD4-447.3048.5920.347.642.871.03
TEN4-44.2511.614.991.830.670.23
CAR2-60.381.600.590.190.060.02
MIN2-60.000.070.030.010.000.00
OAK4-426.8528.7110.623.511.160.37
SEA3-50.339.813.571.070.340.11
ARI2-60.081.550.540.160.050.02
DAL3-56.2910.603.601.030.320.10
MIA1-70.020.090.030.010.000.00
WAS3-53.587.262.410.680.200.06
DEN3-510.2611.153.661.080.320.09
TB4-43.4013.404.161.100.310.09
CLE3-50.090.620.210.060.020.00
KC4-415.5916.764.831.240.320.08
JAC2-60.260.380.100.030.010.00
STL1-70.000.010.000.000.000.00
IND0-90.000.000.000.00--

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)

2011-11-06

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

LSU holds on to #1 in dramatic fashion with the OT win over Alabama, who drops to #7.  Despite being undefeated, Boise State is still at #10.  Their potential Big East move should improve their opponent quality in the future, but we'll see if they can keep up their yearly win total.  Boise State was one of the teams I was sure the polls were underestimating before I put together my rankings.  As it turns out, I typically rank them lower than the human polls do.

1LSU9-0
2Oklahoma State9-0
3Oklahoma8-1
4Stanford9-0
5Clemson8-1
6Houston9-0
7Alabama8-1
8Virginia Tech8-1
9Penn State8-1
10Boise State8-0
11Oregon8-1
12Southern Miss8-1
13Arkansas8-1
14Kansas State7-2
15Nebraska7-2
16South Carolina7-2
17Michigan7-2
18Michigan State7-2
19Georgia7-2
20USC7-2
21TCU7-2
22Georgia Tech7-2
23Wisconsin7-2
24Cincinnati7-1
25Louisiana-Lafayette8-2
26Arkansas State7-2
27Texas6-2
28North Carolina6-4
29Notre Dame6-3
30West Virginia6-3
31Auburn6-3
32Illinois6-3
33Washington6-3
34Rutgers6-3
35Arizona State6-3
36Virginia6-3
37Ohio State6-3
38Tulsa6-3
39Southern Methodist6-3
40Iowa6-3
41Baylor5-3
42Florida State6-3
43Miami (FL)5-4
44Texas A&M5-4
44North Carolina State5-4
46Northern Illinois6-3
47Brigham Young6-3
48Ball State6-4
49Toledo5-4
50Louisville5-4
51Ohio6-3
52Iowa State5-4
53Texas Tech5-4
54Utah5-4
55Eastern Michigan5-4
56Wake Forest5-4
57Syracuse5-4
58Wyoming5-3
59Mississippi State5-4
60Florida5-4
61UCLA5-4
62San Diego State5-3
63Western Michigan5-4
64Louisiana Tech5-4
65Air Force5-4
66California5-4
67Nevada5-3
68Tennessee4-5
69Missouri4-5
70Temple5-4
71Florida International5-4
72Western Kentucky5-4
73South Florida4-4
74Pittsburgh4-5
75Marshall4-5
76Vanderbilt4-5
77Kentucky4-5
78Purdue4-5
79Hawaii5-4
80East Carolina4-5
81Northwestern4-5
82Bowling Green4-5
83UTEP4-5
84Connecticut4-5
85Kent State3-6
86Navy3-6
87Miami (OH)4-5
88Rice3-6
89UCF4-5
90North Texas3-6
91Duke3-6
92Utah State3-5
93Fresno State3-6
94Kansas2-7
95Central Michigan3-7
96San Jose State3-6
97Washington State3-6
98Arizona2-7
99Maryland2-7
100Minnesota2-7
101Army3-6
102New Mexico State3-6
103Ole Miss2-7
104Louisiana-Monroe2-7
105UNLV2-6
106Oregon State2-7
107Colorado State3-5
108Boston College2-7
109Buffalo2-7
110Troy2-6
111Middle Tennessee2-6
112Idaho2-7
113Memphis2-7
114Indiana1-9
115Colorado1-9
116Tulane2-8
117Akron1-8
118UAB1-8
119Florida Atlantic0-8
120New Mexico0-9

2011-11-03

Contest at The Common (Card) Man

The Common (Card) Man is having a contest.  Help him celebrate his 1 year blogging anniversary, or blogiversary for those of you into portmanteaus.  He's a Brewers fan, but we won't hold that against him.  Just go to the contest and guess which Black Glove Leather parallel he pulled from a Jumbo pack of 2011 Topps Update.

Good luck, everyone. (But mostly me)

2011-11-02

Help me, help you

Or at least, help Kyle at Juust a bit outside fill his group break.  I've got the Cardinals and Baseball Dad wants the Indians, but as of this writing everybody else is up for grabs.  He's offering up the following boxes for $15 per team, and only $12 for the post-1992 expansion teams - Marlins, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and (Devil) Rays.

2011 - Topps Lineage hobby and Topps Allen & Ginter hobby
2001 - Upper Deck Reserve
1991 - Stadium 1 & 2, Upper Deck jumbos (w/ silver slugger cards), and 1953 Archives
1981 - Donruss

If it fills up, this will be my first paid group break, as Cards on Cards eased me into the game with a free one awhile back.  So go claim your favorite team!

2011-11-01

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 8

San Francisco over Baltimore

And we're back to the Week 5 and Week 6 results.  I'm starting to feel more confident in that pick.  We'll see how the next 9 weeks go though.  On the other end, the Colts aren't mathematically out yet, even at 0-8, though I'd need more decimal places to show their chances from here on out.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DET6-227.4885.3562.2134.2118.7710.55
SF6-199.6399.7993.8454.6529.3916.34
BAL5-242.6472.9558.6433.5418.889.84
GB7-070.7996.4985.3547.3924.6913.38
HOU5-386.7288.9459.9432.3217.308.61
NO5-364.4577.2147.3722.5811.165.75
BUF5-251.6279.5962.9633.4817.198.34
CIN5-229.0557.3742.9422.1711.375.42
PIT6-227.8661.3344.5022.1010.935.05
NE5-238.4375.4053.6726.0812.365.56
PHI3-426.8042.5720.998.633.711.69
CHI4-31.7316.709.093.751.620.72
NYJ4-39.9627.8616.807.563.351.40
NYG5-249.1664.3433.1912.715.002.11
SD4-340.4543.7520.718.393.391.30
ATL4-321.8643.0018.896.712.480.98
DAL3-417.3529.6112.824.501.650.65
TEN4-312.8723.1211.104.401.750.64
OAK4-333.7237.5616.536.072.230.78
CAR2-60.771.700.640.210.070.03
MIN2-60.000.110.050.010.010.00
WAS3-46.6913.705.261.640.530.19
ARI1-60.131.020.370.110.030.01
TB4-312.9225.038.822.590.810.27
CLE3-40.451.820.790.270.090.03
KC4-323.6427.2810.483.351.070.32
SEA2-50.213.271.090.290.080.02
DEN2-52.192.520.800.230.070.02
MIA0-70.000.010.000.000.000.00
JAC2-60.420.500.130.040.010.00
STL1-60.020.100.030.010.000.00
IND0-80.000.000.000.000.000.00
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)

Play at the Plate's November Contest

Pick a card, any card!

This one's a simple contest.  Pick the manu-patch Play At The Plate pulled in a blaster of 2011 Topps Update.  The winner gets some miscellaneous cards, which are sometimes my favorite kind.

Go enter, and good luck.